Main listed companies in the real estate industry: Vanke A(000002), Poly Real Estate (600048), Xincheng Holdings (601kloc-0/55), China Merchants Shekou (00 1979), Greenland Holdings (600606) and OCT A (600606).
definition
The real estate industry refers to a comprehensive industry that takes land and buildings as business objects and engages in real estate development, construction, operation, management, maintenance, decoration and service. It is a leading, basic, driving and risky industry. According to different uses, it is mainly divided into residential real estate, commercial real estate and industrial real estate. Residential real estate refers to real estate used for living, including ordinary houses, apartments, villas and other real estate forms; Commercial real estate usually refers to real estate forms used for various retail, wholesale, catering, entertainment, fitness, leisure and other business purposes; Industrial real estate refers to a new form of real estate that relies on industry and takes real estate as the carrier to realize the overall development and management of land, build industrial clusters of production, learning and research, help the government improve the regional environment and enhance regional competitiveness.
Industry development prospect and trend forecast
1, adhere to the positioning and transformation and upgrading of "housing and not speculating"
Since 20 16 first put forward the concept of "housing without speculation", the national level and various provinces and cities have successively issued relevant real estate control policies to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate market. The Outline of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of the Long-term Goals in 2035 put forward that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and we should accelerate the housing system of multi-agent supply, multi-channel guarantee and rent-and-purchase, so that all people can live in a house and have a balance between their jobs and housing. At present, 3 1 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government have put forward the development goals and directions of the real estate market during the tenth five-year plan period. Among them, some areas have planned the specific goals of the real estate industry during the "14 th Five-Year Plan" period. For example, in the 14th Five-Year Plan for Urban and Rural Housing Construction and Development in Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Province pointed out that the investment in real estate development was 654.38+0.25 billion yuan. Jiangxi pointed out that the investment in real estate development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period was 654.38+0.25 billion yuan, and Heilongjiang proposed that the per capita living area of cities and towns reached 385 square meters. Some areas have planned the development direction of the real estate industry. For example, Fujian Province pointed out in the Tenth Five-Year Plan of Fujian Province and Suggestions on Long-term Goals in 2035 that it is necessary to adhere to the principle of housing without speculation and accelerate the formation of a housing system with multi-agent supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase.
On the other hand, as China enters the key window of carbon neutrality at the peak of carbon dioxide emission, low-carbon economy will become one of the important development opportunities for all walks of life in the future. As a key area of green carbon reduction, the real estate industry is facing a "painful period" of development model transformation. Low-carbon development is undoubtedly an important long-term logic for the economic development of the real estate industry, and it will also become a brand-new opportunity to break through the dilemma of the industry. With the help of the "double carbon" policy and digital technology, the transition to low-carbon development has undoubtedly become a new way out for the transformation of the real estate industry, and it is the key to realize the "three highs" model of "high leverage, high debt and high risk" and move towards the "new three highs" development of "high quality, high quality and high efficiency".
2. It is estimated that the real estate market will gradually recover in 2022.
In 2022, the domestic real estate market continued to decline due to the macroeconomic downturn, a new round of COVID-19 epidemic rebound, and the lagging effect of previous regulatory policies on market transmission. In the context of the accelerated downturn in market prosperity, in order to prevent systemic risks in the industry and maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, since 2022, the central government has repeatedly issued a signal to maintain stability, and "guaranteeing the delivery of houses" has been one of the priorities in the second half of the year. Specific measures include setting up a "real estate rescue fund" to participate in the rescue work such as revitalizing problem real estate and helping difficult housing enterprises through asset disposal and resource integration and reorganization. However, "housing is not speculation" is still the main tone of the policy.
Under the condition of relatively stable real estate policy, the Blue Book of Real Estate: China Real Estate Development Report (No.19, 2022) predicts that the sales area of commercial housing will slow down and increase by1.7% in the whole year; The growth rate of real estate development investment decreased by 0.8%, and residential development investment decreased by 0.2% from positive to negative; In the case of rising land prices, the average selling price will keep rising slightly, with an annual increase of 2.8%.
For more industry-related data, please refer to China Real Estate Industry Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.