First, the recovery cost method (project cost method)
Restoration cost method, also known as replacement cost method and engineering cost method, is a method to evaluate the economic value of environmental impact by estimating the cost of restoring the original state after the environment is destroyed. When using the recovery cost method to evaluate environmental assets, we must first determine the replacement cost of environmental assets. The replacement cost is the total amount paid to re-purchase and establish a brand-new environmental asset under the current market conditions. The replacement cost is the same as the original cost, but they reflect different price levels. The former reflects the market price level of environmental assets on the appraisal date, while the latter reflects the price level of environmental assets when they were first built. Other things being equal, the higher the replacement cost of environmental assets, the greater its economic value. However, it should be noted that the value of environmental assets will change with the movement of assets, the progress of technology and the changes of social and economic environment. The calculation formula is as follows:
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
In formula (5-2- 1), S 1 is the cost of preventing and controlling environmental pollution or damage; F 1 is the unit cost of protecting and restoring its original environmental function; Q is the total amount of environmental quality or environmental goods that are polluted, destroyed or will be polluted or destroyed.
This method is generally used to estimate the economic losses caused by environmental pollution, such as the extra cost of preventing groundwater pollution and the losses caused by sediment deposition in navigation channels.
Second, the shadow engineering method
Shadow engineering method is a special form of recovery cost method. After the function of an environment is polluted or destroyed, one can be built artificially to replace the original function, and the cost of building a new project (artificial environmental products) can be used to estimate the economic loss caused by environmental pollution or destruction. This method is called shadow engineering method. When it is difficult to directly estimate the losses caused by environmental pollution, people often use the cost of this shadow project to estimate the gains and losses caused by environmental quality changes, which can ensure economic development and people's lives are not affected by environmental pollution.
This "shadow project" is just a concept, not a real project, and its purpose is to have an estimated value of environmental cost. Including the cost of shadow projects can, to some extent, point out how much income a new project must have in order to exceed its losses. Its mathematical expression is
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
In formula (5-2-2), V is the service function value of the original environmental goods; G is the cost of the replacement project; Xi is the construction cost of I project in the replacement project.
Generally used for: economic losses caused by groundwater pollution, loss of forest water conservation function caused by ecological environment destruction, and economic losses caused by reduced power generation capacity of hydropower stations caused by land resources destruction.
Third, the opportunity cost method
This method holds that in the cost-benefit analysis, social environmental losses or costs can be regarded as opportunity costs. There are many mutually exclusive choices in any resource allocation. In order to make the most effective economic choice, we must find the scheme with the greatest social net benefit. Environmental resources are limited, and losing the opportunity to use them means losing the opportunity to gain benefits. Opportunity cost method is a method to calculate the economic benefits or losses caused by environmental quality changes by using the opportunity cost of environmental resources.
If there are two ways to use resource K, A and B, the net benefits they get are 500 yuan and 700 yuan respectively. When we choose Plan A, we lose the opportunity for Plan B to use K resources. In Scheme B, the maximum net income is 700 yuan, so the opportunity cost of choosing Scheme A for K resources is 700 yuan. Opportunity cost is not the actual expenditure, nor is it included in the book, but it is an important basis for choosing the best investment plan.
It is a simple and feasible method to estimate the economic loss caused by environmental pollution by opportunity cost method. Its formula is
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
In formula (5-2-3), S2 is the lost opportunity cost; F2 is the unit opportunity cost of resource allocation or utilization; W is a kind of environmental pollution damage, and its estimation method is related to environmental factors and pollution process.
It can be used to evaluate the short-term economic loss of water resources and the economic loss caused by the occupation of farmland by solid waste.
Fourth, the market value method
Market value method is also called productivity method and production effect method. This method regards the environment as a factor of production, so the change of environment will inevitably lead to the change of productivity and production cost, which will lead to the change of product output, and these changes can be calculated by market prices. The calculation formula is
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
In formula (5-2-4), S3 is the value loss of environmental pollution or ecological environment destruction; F3 is the market price of natural or man-made goods after being polluted or destroyed; Ri is the output level lost when the goods are polluted or destroyed by class I; Grade I pollution is generally divided into four levels of pollution, which are respectively expressed as light pollution, moderate pollution, heavy pollution and serious pollution or destruction; The calculation method of Ri is related to the pollution or loss degree of environmental factors. If the farmland pollution loss is calculated, it is calculated according to the following formula:
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
In formula (5-2-5), Mi is the area polluted to a certain extent; R0 is the unit yield of unpolluted or simulated area; Ri is the unit yield when farmland is polluted to a certain extent.
If commodity sales are in a relatively perfect market mechanism, the change of environmental quality will directly affect the market price of products. However, we must pay attention to the dynamic influence of commodity sales changes on commodity prices. If the change of environmental quality has little influence on the change of the output level of the commodity and will not cause the change of the market price of the commodity, then the existing market price can be directly used for calculation. If the change of environmental quality has a great influence on the market share of the commodity and is enough to cause the market price of the commodity to change, then it is necessary to analyze the influence of the market share of the commodity on the market price of the commodity. It can be expressed as
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
In formula (5-2-6), p is the change of environmental value calculated by the change of commodity output; P 1 is the market price before the change of unit commodity output; P2 is the market price after the change of unit commodity output; Δ q is the variation of unit commodity output in environmentally polluted areas.
Market price method is to calculate the economic loss or economic gain caused by environmental quality change by using the change of output value and profit caused by environmental quality change.
This method can be used to evaluate agricultural economic losses caused by water pollution, economic losses caused by ecological environment destruction, mining costs increased by groundwater level decline, economic losses caused by land resource destruction and soil erosion.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) human capital law
If the living environment of human beings is polluted and destroyed, the original system function will be reduced, which will bring losses to human health. This will not only make people lose their ability to work, but also bring a burden to society. Human capital method is a statistical calculation method to estimate the economic loss caused by environmental pollution and destruction by using the damage of environmental pollution and destruction to human health and labor ability.
The losses caused by environmental quality changes to human health mainly include three aspects, namely, premature death, income loss caused by illness or sick leave, increased medical expenses and mental or psychological damage. The economic losses caused by environmental pollution and destruction include direct economic losses and indirect economic losses. Among them, the former includes prevention and medical expenses, death and funeral expenses, and the latter includes economic losses caused by patients' delayed work and economic losses caused by non-medical personnel's nursing and accompanying. The evaluation step of this kind of loss is to determine the proportion of environmental pollution and destruction factors in the cause of the disease through epidemiological investigation and comparative analysis in pollution-damaged areas, and calculate the economic loss caused by environmental pollution and destruction to human health according to the number of patients and deaths and the total labor hours delayed by patients and caregivers. The economic losses caused by environmental pollution and destruction also include the comfort losses of victims, such as mental pain, family pain and sadness. Such as loss, it is difficult to measure with money, so it does not belong to the scope of human capital evaluation methods.
1. Estimation method of health loss caused by environmental pollution and destruction
The health loss caused by environmental pollution and destruction is equal to the sum of the net output value and medical expenses created by the loss of working days. When the average growth rate of human capital is basically equal to the currency discount rate, the loss value can be calculated according to the following formula:
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
In formula (5-2-7), S4 is the loss of human health caused by environmental pollution and destruction, ten thousand yuan; M is the population of the area covered by environmental pollution and destruction, 6.5438+million; P is human capital, with per capita net output value: yuan/year/person; Li and Loi are the incidence rates of Class I diseases in polluted areas and clean areas, respectively, per person /654.38+ 10,000 people; Hi is the average working time, days or hours lost by caregivers of patients with class I diseases; Yi is the average medical expenses of patients with class I diseases, yuan/person; Ti is the per capita lost working time of patients with Class I diseases, in years or days.
2. Estimation methods of direct and indirect economic losses caused by environmental pollution and destruction.
The calculation formula of direct economic loss and indirect economic loss of environmental pollution and destruction is
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
In formula (5-2-8), L 1 1 and L 12 are direct economic losses, ten thousand yuan; L2 1 and L22 are indirect economic losses, ten thousand yuan; A is the percentage of environmental pollution factors in the cause of illness or death,%; Rp is the number of patients, people; Rd is the number of deaths, people; Ld refers to working days, days or hours delayed by patients and caregivers; Ll is the total number of working days lost compared with the average life expectancy (days or hours); C is the medical expenses of each patient, 10,000 yuan; B is the funeral expenses of each deceased, 10,000 yuan; P is the per capita national income, ten thousand yuan.
3. Calculation method of personal injury loss caused by environmental pollution and destruction
The calculation of personal injury loss is mainly based on Article 1 19 of the General Principles of Civil Law, which stipulates that the injury that can be recovered after treatment "should compensate for the medical expenses and income reduced due to missed work". The medical expenses here should also include transportation expenses, necessary nursing expenses and necessary nutrition expenses. The income reduced due to missed work refers to the income lost due to the fact that the injured person can't go to work, such as wages being deducted. For personal disability, that is, unable to recover after treatment, resulting in partial or total loss of working ability, in addition to compensation for the above medical expenses and lost time, a "living allowance" should also be given. The living allowance here refers to the reduced wage income due to disability or the consolation money that causes difficulties in life. For those who cause death, in addition to compensation for medical expenses, they should also pay funeral expenses and living expenses necessary for the deceased to support others before his death. The "funeral expenses" here generally refer to cremation expenses; "Other people raised by the deceased" refers to parents, spouses, minor children and other people who have the obligation to support. "Necessary living expenses" refers to the average expenses needed to ensure the local basic living at that time. If the "necessary living expenses" is lower than the deceased's living level, the latter should be taken and adjusted accordingly with the level of social development. The adjusted proportion must be greater than or equal to the social discount rate. Based on the above environmental pollution and damage to human health, the calculation formula of economic loss is
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
In formula (5-2-9), L is the economic loss of human health caused by environmental pollution and destruction, ten thousand yuan; Ai indicates that the incidence of pollution I area is higher than that of control area,%; βi means that the death rate of Z disease in polluted area is higher than that in control area,%; S is the total population of the polluted area, people; Ti is the labor time lost by I patients, days or hours; P is the per capita national income of polluted areas, ten thousand yuan; Δ ci is the average medical cost of I disease, 10,000 yuan.
When calculating the water pollution loss of Xiangjiang River Basin in China, the formula for calculating the economic loss caused by environmental pollution to human health is as follows
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
In formula (5-2- 10), l is the total loss of human health, ten thousand yuan; K 1 and K2 are health conversion coefficients; Y 1 is the per capita national income, ten thousand yuan; P 1 is the number of people who have lost their ability to work, people; Y2 is the per capita medical expenses, ten thousand yuan; P2 number of patients.
Although the human capital method is an important environmental and economic evaluation method, there are still some problems in its application, such as ethics, interest attribution and theoretical defects.
Six, direct calculation method
The economic loss (y) caused by environmental pollution consists of material loss (Yw), production loss (Ys) and national economic loss (Yg), namely
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
Material losses include the loss of raw materials, semi-finished products and products, production losses include the loss of production houses, the loss of machine wear, the loss of production reduction and the loss of health, while national economic losses include the loss of agriculture and forestry, the loss of housing and public utilities, the loss of industry and the loss of human health. The general formula for loss estimation is
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
In formula (5-2- 12), Gs is the economic loss value (ten thousand yuan); Zs is the loss index and quantity (the dimension is determined according to the specific loss catalogue); Pd is the monetary value of unit loss (yuan).
Generally speaking, material losses and production losses only account for 8% ~ 12% of economic losses, while social and economic losses account for 88% ~ 92%.
Although every application of direct estimation method needs to spend a lot of time, manpower and material resources to collect a lot of data from various departments of the national economy, this method is relatively simple and practical, and it is the basis of analytical calculation method, empirical estimation method and other evaluation methods. So it has been widely used.
Seven. Empirical estimation method
Empirical estimation method is used to estimate the loss value caused by environmental pollution, and its basic data mainly comes from pollution-bearing projects. Through this method, the unit loss (standard quota) of environmental goods can be obtained. Empirical estimation methods are divided into concentration method and weight method. The specific technical methods are described as follows.
The specific loss value used by 1. concentration method is determined according to the average concentration for many years, and the application of this method to estimate the loss value can achieve high accuracy. The calculation formula is as follows:
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
Where (5-2- 13), Y 1 is the economic loss value, ten thousand yuan; Y(x)ij is the specific loss value of item J caused to the unit load when the annual average concentration of I pollutant is xij (the estimated value of human health per unit load is 1, and that of agriculture and forestry is1hm2); Rij refers to the number of times I pollutants have been damaged (such as the number of residents, land area, value of fixed assets, etc.); K is the correction factor.
The specific loss value provided by this research result is suitable for air containing one or more pollutants with a predetermined combination, and its comprehensive pollution effect is less than 1. The comprehensive pollution effect is equal to the sum of multiples of the allowable limit concentration of pollutants. The research center believes that the combination of acetone, formaldehyde and phenol, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, formaldehyde and ethane in metallurgical industrial waste has comprehensive pollution effect.
2. The weight method is used to estimate the economic losses caused by environmental pollution.
With the help of empirical coefficient, the relationship between pollutant concentration and weight is analyzed, and the data needed for estimation are obtained. The formula is as follows:
Economic evaluation of urban geological environment risk
Where (5-2- 14), Y2 is the economic loss value, ten thousand yuan; Kp is the weighted average coefficient of various pollutants in the region; Gi is the specific loss of H pollutants (such as environmental pollution loss of 1t sulfite, 1t fluoride and 1t phenol). In monetary form); Fi is the diffusion coefficient of I pollutant (at the same temperature, the diffusion coefficients of solid and gaseous substances are different); Mi is the weight of I pollutant discharged into the atmosphere, t/ year; Δ I is the correction factor of the undertaker type (for example, the urban built-up area with a population of 0.000 ~ 250,000, the land for industrial enterprises is 0.8, 1.5, and the forest convalescent area and nature reserve are 3.0. ).
Before applying the empirical estimation method, it is necessary to draw the contour map of pollutants according to the actual monitoring data and calculate the number of receptors in the concentration equivalent area. On this basis, the value of social and economic losses caused by environmental pollution is estimated. Calculate the total value of pollution losses in the whole area. The value of pollution loss that each enterprise should bear must be calculated separately, otherwise it is difficult to realize the rational allocation and paid use of environmental resources.
Eight. Alternative market method
When the environmental goods and labor under discussion cannot be expressed by market prices, the market prices of substitute goods and labor can be used as the basis for determining the value of environmental goods and labor. This kind of value estimation method is the alternative market method, which mainly includes asset value method, wage difference method and travel expense method.
1. Asset value method
In environmental economics, environmental quality can be regarded as a factor affecting asset appreciation. Under the condition that other influencing factors of asset value remain unchanged, it is a method to estimate the economic loss caused by environmental deterioration or the social benefit increased by environmental improvement by using the amount of asset value change caused by environmental quality change. At present, many studies focus on the impact of air pollution on the value of real estate (mainly residential and office buildings).
Using this method, we should first investigate the natural environment and social environment around the real estate and establish the comfort value equation of human settlements. The variables in the equation generally include the price, structure and characteristics of real estate, surrounding environment and air pollution index. For example, the change of real estate value caused by the change of air quality. According to the change of real estate value, the regression equation of consumers' willingness to pay is established, and the marginal willingness to pay for the improvement of unit air environment quality can be drawn on the geometric plane by solving this equation. Generally speaking, for middle-income families, the marginal willingness to pay for improving air quality will increase with the increase of air pollution concentration. The higher the average household income, the stronger the desire to improve air quality. Therefore, other things being equal, the real estate price in polluted areas must be lower than that in pollution-free areas.
2. Wage difference method
The method of estimating the economic loss or economic benefit caused by the change of environmental quality by using the wage difference of workers under different environmental quality conditions is called wage difference method. In the economic society, the wages of workers are affected by many factors, such as the nature of work, technical level, labor risks, the quality of the surrounding environment and so on. If other influencing factors remain unchanged, factory owners will use high wages to attract workers to work in polluted areas. If the society allows workers to change jobs freely, the difference in average daily wages should be partly attributed to the environmental quality of the work area. Therefore, the level of wage difference can be used to estimate the economic loss or social benefit brought by the change of environmental quality.
3. Travel expenses law
Travel cost method is often used to evaluate the value of natural landscape or environmental resources without market price. It is evaluated by the surplus value of consumers obtained by tourists from the services of environmental resources, while for the owners of environmental resources, it obtains income through tourists' consumption of this special commodity.
In order to determine consumers' recognized value of these environmental resources services, the basic principle of the travel expense law is that although all scenic spots in these countries may not require tourists to pay entrance fees, tourists need to bear the transportation expenses and spend their limited time for visiting. Therefore, the price paid by tourists can be regarded as the actual payment for these environmental resources services. We know that the consumer's willingness to pay is equal to the sum of the actual payment for a commodity or service and the consumer's surplus. If the actual consumption amount of tourists can be obtained, then the key to determining tourists' willingness to pay for environmental resources is to estimate the consumer surplus obtained by tourists.
At the same time, we should also see that tourists' demand for these environmental resources and services is not unlimited, and this demand is strictly constrained by travel costs. It is assumed that the consumer surplus obtained by all tourists who receive environmental resources services is equal to and equal to the marginal travel expenses of tourists, and the consumer surplus of tourists who are farthest from the resource evaluation site is the smallest. The tourists and consumers closest to the resource evaluation place have the largest surplus.
Scope of application: ① Leisure and entertainment places; ② Nature reserves, national parks, forests, grasslands and wetlands; (3) rivers, reservoirs, dams, lakes and other places with entertainment places.
4. Protection expenditure law
When an economic activity may lead to environmental pollution, people can take corresponding measures to prevent or control environmental pollution. The method to evaluate the environmental value by the cost of taking the above measures is the protection expenditure method. The burden of protection costs can take different forms. You can adopt the "polluter pays" method, where polluters buy and install environmental protection equipment to eliminate pollution by themselves. We can adopt the "polluter pays" method to establish a special pollutant treatment enterprise to treat pollutants centrally; It is also possible to purchase the corresponding equipment by the victims themselves, and the polluter will pay the corresponding compensation. There are still efficiency problems in the use of protection expenditure. The cost of protection should be the lowest under the condition that the effect of preventing or treating environmental pollution is the same.
The protective expenditure method has some intuitive appeal to decision makers, enabling them to judge the importance of environmental plans and projects from the perspective of what the directly affected people are willing to spend. Comparing the protection expenditure method with the data obtained by other methods is very useful for deciding whether to take measures to prevent or let environmental damage exist, whether to compensate the victims or try to restore the current environmental quality.
IX. Investigation and evaluation methods
Investigation and evaluation method is a method to evaluate the value of environmental resources or environmental protection benefits by investigating the will of experts or users of environmental resources. The way is to understand the willingness of experts and users of environmental resources to pay or choose environmental goods and environmental labor, or to obtain information to evaluate the monetary value of environmental profits and losses through the pricing of environmental resources by experts. Willingness survey and evaluation method is based on personal demand curve and consumer surplus theory, and measures income by estimating consumers' desire for compensation for environmental goods and environmental labor losses. It mainly includes bidding game method, comparative game method, no-cost selection method, priority bid evaluation method and expert bid evaluation method. Various methods can be found in the book Introduction to Environmental Economics [65].
X. result reference method
Because the research of basic evaluation method needs a lot of data, money and time, it often needs a simple and feasible evaluation method, so the result reference method is produced.
The so-called results reference method is to give credible monetary value to the goods and services that are not sold in the market affected by the project within a certain range. Results Reference Method is actually an indirect economic evaluation method, which uses the research results of one or more basic evaluation methods to estimate the economic value of similar environmental impacts and transplant them into the evaluated projects after revision and adjustment.
Advantages and disadvantages of using result reference method: Although some types of result reference method have been widely and successfully applied in policy analysis and decision-making, generally speaking, the greater the difference between reference impact and target impact, the worse the accuracy of estimation. The advantages and disadvantages of reference object selection criteria are shown in Table 5-2- 1.
Table 5-2- 1 Advantages and Disadvantages of Reference Selection Criteria
sequential