Fu, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Statistics Department, said that with the effective implementation of various economic stability policies, economic operation is expected to gradually pick up. Among them, domestic demand is expected to increase, and key industries such as automobiles and electronics will continue to play a leading role in the upstream and downstream. Market participants believe that after entering 1 1, the domestic epidemic prevention and control policies have been further optimized, the regulatory authorities have increased their support for bond financing of private enterprises, and 16 measures have been introduced to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The policy of stabilizing the economy in the early stage has further achieved remarkable results, and the economy is still expected to remain stable and upward in the fourth quarter.
The main economic indicators are generally stable.
The data shows that on the production side, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.0% year-on-year in June 5438+ 10, which was lower than the growth rate of 6.3% in September. The monthly year-on-year growth rate of the national service industry production index also dropped from 1.3% last month to 0. 1%. On the demand side, in terms of fixed assets investment, in June1-June 10, the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was lower than that in June1-September. The year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods turned positive again after a lapse of five months. The previously announced growth rate of commodity exports was 3.7 percentage points lower than that in September.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that repeated epidemic, cooling external demand and depressed real estate are the three major factors that dragged down the economic performance in June 5438+ 10. Among them, the growth rate of real estate development investment from 1 to 10 continues to refresh the lowest cumulative growth rate since March 2020. The year-on-year growth rate of development investment in June 5438+ 10 was only slightly better than that in February 2020. In June 5438+ 10, the sales area of commercial housing and the sales of commercial housing were also weaker than last month. At present, the credit risk of private housing enterprises is the key to the real estate market problem. From June 165438+ 10, the policy began to focus on increasing financial support from the supply side, which helped to reduce the risk of a hard landing in the real estate market, but it will take time to transmit from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market.
Fu said that in June of 5438+00, due to the complicated and severe international environment and domestic epidemic situation, the year-on-year growth rate of some indicators declined. However, from the cumulative point of view, the main economic indicators are generally stable. At the same time, prices and employment remained generally stable, people's livelihood security was effective, and the economy continued to pick up. 5438+ 10 The national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.5%, which was the same as that of last month, and the consumer price maintained a moderate increase.
Policies continue to support economic growth.
Repeated epidemic is one of the important factors that dragged down the economy in June of 5438+00. Recently, the number of confirmed cases reported in many places in China continued to rise. The market is also generally concerned about the impact of repeated epidemics on the economy in the fourth quarter.
In this regard, Fu said that since the beginning of this year, due to the complicated and severe international environment and frequent domestic epidemics, the economic recovery slowed down in June+10, 5438. However, we should also see that although China's economy has faced many unexpected factors this year, under the action of a series of stable economic policies, the economy has continued to recover despite the pressure.
In the next stage, although the international environment is complex and severe, and the domestic economic recovery faces many challenges, the fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement have not changed, and the basic characteristics of solid material foundation, broad market space, rich human resources and great development potential have not changed. With the effectiveness of various stable economic policies, economic operation is expected to gradually recover.
Fu said that China's total economic output ranks second in the world, its industrial system is complete, its supporting capacity is strong, and its advantages in super-large market scale are obvious, so it is fully capable of resisting various risks and challenges. At the same time, from the perspective of investment, the steady investment policy has been continuously strengthened and major projects have been accelerated, which is conducive to the steady growth of infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment, and is also conducive to the effective play of the key role of investment. In the first 10 month, infrastructure investment increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated for six consecutive months; Investment in manufacturing increased by 9.7%, which was significantly faster than the growth rate of all investment. From the leading indicators, in the first 10 month, the planned total investment of newly started projects increased by 23. 1% year-on-year, accelerating for two consecutive months. From the consumption point of view, although the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased in June 5438+ 10, the basic living consumption continued to increase, and the online retail sales increased rapidly. As the epidemic situation is gradually controlled, the effect of stabilizing consumption policy will gradually appear, and consumption will gradually improve.
Fu pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the production of key industries such as automobiles and electronics has rebounded, which has obviously supported the industry. The industrial chains of these two industries are relatively long and will continue to play a leading role in upstream and downstream. At the same time, the industry will accelerate the transformation to digitalization, networking and intelligence, which will also enhance the economic driving force.
Market participants generally expect that the effect of stabilizing economic policies will continue to be effective. Yang Xin, an analyst at Hongta Securities (60 1236), believes that the 20 measures to further optimize epidemic prevention and control recently announced by the State Council Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism will help stabilize the supply chain, increase consumption scenarios, reduce the impact of epidemic prevention and control on the company's production and operation and daily consumption of residents, and minimize the interference of epidemic prevention and control on economic growth. Since June 1 1, policies and measures such as "promoting and expanding bond financing support tools for private enterprises", "Notice on doing a good job in financial support for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market at present" and "Notice on commercial banks issuing letters of guarantee to replace pre-sale supervision funds" have added certainty to economic recovery.
Wen Bin said that in view of the further optimization of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies, the overweight of real estate support policies, and the expected cooling of the Fed's interest rate hike since the beginning of June by 5438+065438+ 10, the effects of various economic stabilization policies have been further exerted, and it is expected that the economy will remain stable and upward in the fourth quarter.