In the news, at the 20 19 national medical and economic information conference, Xu, deputy inspector of the drug supervision and management department, revealed that the Food and Drug Administration is studying and formulating the "Measures for the Supervision of Online Sales of Drugs" to allow conditional release of online sales of prescription drugs. At the same time, the Medical Insurance Bureau and the Food and Drug Administration are respectively promoting the national centralized collection and consistency evaluation of chemical injections.
The agency said that the annual revenue and profit growth rate of the pharmaceutical sector is expected to achieve a moderate "bottoming out", but with the gradual normalization of new policies such as consistency evaluation, quantity procurement, and auxiliary drug restriction, the internal growth rate differentiation of the pharmaceutical sector may be more serious. "Overall growth tends to be stable and internal differentiation intensifies" will become the "new normal" of the development of the pharmaceutical industry. Private placement is optimistic about the rotation and compensatory growth opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector, and the horizontal performance of the sector has a comparative advantage.
The annual performance of the pharmaceutical sector is expected to bottom out and the internal growth rate differentiation will intensify.
Recently, the pharmaceutical sector has performed strongly. According to the data of choice, the cumulative increase of the pharmaceutical sector from June 65438+1October 365438+1October 6 was 3.2 1%. Many insiders believe that the annual revenue and profit growth rate of the pharmaceutical sector is expected to achieve a moderate "bottoming out", but with the gradual normalization of new policies such as consistency evaluation, quantity procurement, and auxiliary drug restrictions, the internal growth rate differentiation of the pharmaceutical sector may be more serious. "Overall growth tends to be stable and internal differentiation intensifies" will become the "new normal" of the development of the pharmaceutical industry.
Intensified differentiation within the plate
According to the data of the third quarterly report of 20 19, among the 3 14 pharmaceutical and biological enterprises of A-share, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company increased by more than 50% year-on-year, 40 * * net profit increased by 30%-50% year-on-year, 5 1 company and 65430% net profit increased year-on-year. There are 106 companies with declining performance or losses. Overall, the performance of most pharmaceutical companies still achieved positive growth, but the performance differentiation was more serious.
On the whole, the operating income of pharmaceutical listed companies increased by 16.93% in the first three quarters of 20 19, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by 10.9 1%, and the non-net profit increased by 9.42%. From the perspective of various sub-industries, the top growth rates of net profit are biopharmaceuticals, medical services, medical devices, raw materials and chemicals, pharmaceutical commerce and Chinese patent medicines.
Judging from the performance of specific companies, Haizheng Pharmaceutical achieved a net profit of 65.438+0.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 654.38+0.75 times. Followed by Zheng Guang Group, the net profit was about 1.2 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times. Of course, the performance of many companies has changed, such as Laimei Pharmaceutical, Theron Pharmaceutical and Jinlong Pharmaceutical.
With the full implementation of "4+7" quantity procurement, 16 of the 25 winning varieties are domestic listed companies, including 5 A-share listed companies and 2 Hong Kong listed companies. Terminal market resources began to concentrate on leading enterprises represented by high-quality listed companies, and the import substitution effect was obvious.
The insiders believe that in the future, the implementation of the quantity procurement policy will be strengthened and the range of varieties will be further expanded, which will aggravate the performance differentiation of the pharmaceutical sector.
Two policies affect the performance of chemical drugs.
The two policies of national centralized collection and consistency evaluation of chemical injections, which are being promoted by the Medical Insurance Bureau and the Food and Drug Administration respectively, will profoundly affect the future performance of the chemical sector, and a number of enterprises will be eliminated.
The chemical plate is mainly composed of chemicals and raw materials. The third quarterly report of 60 chemical pharmaceutical preparation enterprises showed that the operating income increased by 13.98%, the net profit increased by 1 1.33%, and the non-net profit increased by 9%. The growth rate of the plate is moderate, and the growth of most Baima companies is in line with expectations. The third quarterly report of 27 API companies showed that the operating income increased by 9. 13% year-on-year, the net profit increased by 14% year-on-year, and the net profit decreased by 9% year-on-year. Compared with the same period of last year, due to environmental pressure and limited production capacity, the stable relationship between supply and demand was broken, which led to the rise of some raw material prices and the formation of a high base. In the first three quarters of this year, both raw material income and net profit increased, but the net profit deducted from the mother decreased slightly.
Industry insiders told china securities journal that from the current situation, the chemical industry is in a period of great change. Xinlitai and Dezhan Health were affected by the price reduction of centralized procurement, and their performance was affected. With the "4+7" policy upgraded to national centralized mining, it will impact about 3,000 domestic chemical and pharmaceutical enterprises. After the nationwide centralized procurement is pushed forward, the relevant ministries and commissions will plan to further expand the number of varieties, and conservatively predict that about one-third of chemical enterprises will be eliminated by the market.
The Food and Drug Administration of the United States issued two documents on June 5438+1October 65438+May: technical requirements for consistency evaluation of quality and efficacy of generic chemical injections (draft for comments) and application requirements for consistency evaluation of quality and efficacy of generic chemical injections on the market (draft for comments). The issuance of these two documents means that the related work of injection consistency evaluation is expected to speed up. Once a product has passed the evaluation of the three companies, the Medical Insurance Bureau can bring it into the scope of national centralized procurement, which means that the injection field with a market size of 600 billion will also usher in the era of price war.
The policy will promote the integration of vaccine industry.
Among the major sectors, the biological sector is still in the stage of rapid growth in revenue and growth rate, and the growth rate is also considerable. Bioplate is mainly composed of blood products and vaccines. The third quarterly report shows that the operating income of 32 biomedical enterprises increased by 17% year-on-year, the net profit increased by 40% year-on-year, and the net profit after deduction increased by 24% year-on-year. The net profit of the vaccine sector in the first three quarters maintained a relatively high growth rate year-on-year, and the growth rate of the blood products sector was relatively stable.
The vaccine sub-industry still maintained the highest growth rate since the beginning of the year, and the performance of companies such as zhifei Bio, watson biological, Tiantan Bio and anke biotechnology maintained a strong growth trend.
The concentration of China's vaccine industry is low, and the annual production scale is about 25 billion yuan. At present, there are 45 vaccine enterprises in China, and 38 actually produce them, of which 20 only produce 1 variety throughout the year. Last year, the Changchun longevity vaccine incident became the focus of national attention, reflecting deep-seated industry problems. Relevant ministries and commissions are working to improve the concentration of the vaccine industry. The main measures are: improving market access standards and strictly controlling newly established vaccine enterprises; Strengthen vaccine quality management and gradually guide backward products to withdraw; Support the association to formulate industry development guidelines and guide the orderly development of the industry. Through several years' efforts, the number of vaccine enterprises has halved, the market share of the top five enterprises has exceeded 80%, and the industrial scale has increased by more than 10% on average. (china securities journal)
At present, after the initial efforts of home appliances, food and beverage, insurance, banking and other sectors, private placement focuses on the opportunities for replenishment in four major industries: biomedicine, 5G, finance and real estate.
KATTO said that the recent market rotation mainly revolves around two main lines: "low valuation" and "real growth". Before the end of the year, low valuation industries such as real estate stocks may face valuation switching opportunities in the year-end window due to low static valuation and high probability of good performance next year; In terms of growth stocks, the wave of 5G replacement has brought certain opportunities to the 5G industrial chain, and it is expected to perform in related stocks in the future.
Xingshi Investment believes that although the big consumption and big finance sectors continue to dominate the market structure in the near future, they will pay more attention to the growth dimension of listed companies' performance in the future. Judging from the third quarterly report, the performance of growth stocks has turned to an inflection point. At the end of the year, private placement will focus on investment opportunities in biomedicine and 5G industry chain.
Tang Tao, chief investment officer of Shanghai Kuanqiao Finance, said that he would focus on non-bank finance, medicine and 5G. In terms of non-bank finance, MSCI's re-expansion and the reform of the New Third Board will continue to benefit the non-bank financial sector; In the pharmaceutical industry, although the pharmaceutical industry has been affected by multiple factors such as medical insurance control fees and bidding price reduction in recent years, the loss (deduction) of pharmaceutical listed companies is only 8.7%, which is far lower than the loss of A-share listed companies exceeding 17%, which has a comparative advantage in horizontal performance; In addition, with the official commercialization of 5G, operators, 5G network construction, Internet of Things, video conferencing and other sub-sectors will continue to benefit from revenue sources, new product research and development, and 5G application portals. (china securities journal)