Suppose you are an international lobbyist, that is, when the monetary policy is loose and watered down interest rates are extremely low, you loaned a large amount of money to other countries to invest, this type of person is known as an international lobbyist. All very powerful role, today let you be this powerful role. You borrowed a billion dollars from the bank, the interest rate is 0.25%, that is, only 2.5 million dollars a year to hold the cost of funds, is not so low that you want to borrow billions more. For ease of calculation, let's just assume you took out a loan of $1 billion.
For ease of understanding, I assume you came to our country with $1 billion. The reality is that our country's finance is not fully open to the outside world, foreign investment into the country is regulated. But a lot of other countries are completely open to the outside world, foreign capital can freely enter and exit those countries, so the harvest is particularly smooth and easy.
According to the dollar to RMB 1:7 exchange rate, you exchange 7 billion yuan. You first investigated a round, determined that a first-tier city in China has a lot of room for growth next. You did another round of research in that city and picked a quality neighborhood. You represent several real estate companies in that neighborhood. Let's make it clear in advance here that you are not really representing these real estate companies just to earn commissions from buying and selling houses. After all, you're not looking at a small commission for buying and selling homes. You're looking at the big bucks, and let's be specific about how you'll actually do that.
You represent several real estate stores, and each store hires a store manager and several agents. The store manager helps you manage the store, and the agents help you gather information about the properties. What do you need to do as a first step? Eat all the circulating properties in this neighborhood. Because this neighborhood is high-quality enough, in fact, there are not many real circulating disk.
After a period of hard work by the store manager and the agent, all the properties for sale in this neighborhood are basically in your hands. From time to time, you'll have the store manager put certain listings up for sale. Of course, you don't really want to sell the house, you just want to spread the word that the listings have gone up in price. The listing price is set by the store manager and can be slightly higher than the market price. A price in the morning, a price at noon, and then a price at night, several times a day.
We all know what people in a neighborhood are the most vacant? The first thing you need to do is to get your hands dirty. The first thing you need to do is to get a good deal of information from the people who are in the neighborhood. moncler outlet store The morning walk through the real estate store to see their own neighborhood listings in the sale, took a look at the 40,000 square feet, when the agents enthusiastically introduced them to the next big rise in the price of this neighborhood, because there are many good news. The moncler outlet store online store is a good place to start, and it's a good place to start. At noon, I deliberately walked to this side and took a look and found that it has become 42,000 square feet, the agent said really is true, some small excited photo sent a circle of friends. At night after another look actually rose to 45,000 square feet. And then went around telling people that the prices of their neighborhoods are going up. In addition to talking to the people they met, they also have to say in a variety of groups they are in, so that the whole world knows that the price of their neighborhood is going to rise.
moncler outlet store Why would you be so active in helping agents spread the word around that prices are going up? It's not hard to understand, in your place, your house went up 5000 a square foot in one day, assuming it's 100 square feet, that is, your equity went up 500,000 in one day, you're not excited, you don't want to tell people? Of course, you are sensible people, excited to excitement, you will not go around to say. But moncler jackets outlet it's not the same. You're not working, you're not working, you're not doing anything, you're doing something, you're doing something, you're doing something, you're doing something, you're doing something.
In this case, it's the first time I've ever seen the world's most popular TV show, and it's the first time I've ever seen the world's most popular TV show, and it's the first time I've ever seen the world's most popular TV show. It just so happens that now there is a little beauty need to buy a house in this neighborhood, she came to A real estate to see a set of properties for sale to the agent to consult. As I said above, you don't really want to sell when you put the listing up, you've already gotten the word out to the store manager and the agents. So the agents are telling the little beauty that the house she's looking at has already been bought. But there is a similar house for sale, but the price is a little more expensive, 50,000 a square meter. Feeling that it was too expensive, she left Property A and consulted Property B and Property C, and found that they said the same thing as Property A. Of course, these real estate agents would tell her that the house she was interested in had already been bought by someone else. Of course, these several real estate behind the boss are you, naturally the same argument.
A few days later, the little beauty considered clearly contacted the agent said it was determined to buy. But the agent told her that the price of the house has increased, and now need 55,000 a square meter. The little beauty has heard the news that this neighborhood housing prices are going to rise, and now just a few days time housing prices have risen, she instantly panicked, and immediately gave the deposit to the house to determine down.
Not to say not to sell? I'm not sure if you're going to be able to get a good deal on this. The first thing you need to do is to get your hands on some of the most popular products and services in the world, and you'll be able to do that. The price of a neighborhood is affected by the price of the most recent transaction. Although the store manager can control the listing price, but the listing price is not the market price. What's the point of having a listing price that's so high that no one will buy it? But the transaction price is different, is really someone according to the price of the transaction, is the real market price.
In this way, everyone accepts that the neighborhood prices are going up. Next, someone needs to buy a house in this neighborhood, the price of the house rose to 60,000 or 65,000 is also logical.
With the crazy rise in home prices, more and more people are joining the ranks of home buyers. That's when you can start selling off the listings you have. According to 70,000, 75,000 a square foot.
By your entry 40,000, 45,000 a square rose to the current 70,000, 75,000 a square. Are you trying to say I don't want to sell now, I have to wait until 100,000 a square meter to sell. In fact, whether in the property market or the stock market, no organization can sell at the highest point. Because a large number of sell-offs lead to a decline in prices, can only be slowly withdrawn. After all, things are rare, demand exceeds supply in order to let the price rise, and the house is never buy Zhang not to buy the fall.
At the same time there is a reason that the United States to raise interest rates, from the original 0.25% interest rate up to 1.5%, does not seem much. But you borrowed a billion dollars, the interest rate went up from 2.5 million to 15 million per year. The cost of holding the money went up. Of course you have to repatriate the money back to the US and return it to the bank.
There is actually another important reason why early withdrawal is necessary. Hot money back to the United States will make the dollar strong leading to the appreciation of the dollar, the relative yuan will depreciate. Why? Because there are fewer dollars on the market, and more of their own currency. If you fail to withdraw in time before the devaluation of the national currency, as a lobbyist you will suffer significant losses. Like this time the Turkish currency lira, on January 1 this year, a dollar to 7.4 lira, to the evening of December 20, a dollar to 18 lira.
If you take $ 100 million on January 1 this year to exchange $ 740 million lira investment in Turkey. December 20 you intend to withdraw, even if this year you return on investment is 100%, that is, earned $ 740 million lira, plus the principal of a **** 1.48 billion lira. Sorry, you can't get $100 million back, you have to lose $120 million. What then? This is what the Turkish president wants, you have no way to complete the harvest, once this time to withdraw you have to blood loss. This is called locking up the hot money to prevent you from running.
Suppose you take hot money in our country for 5 years, we roughly calculate how much you actually earned. Let's say you ate 15 suites in that neighborhood and took them at an average price of 40,000 per square foot. Based on 100 square feet per suite, one listing is $4 million, 15 suites totaling $6 billion. And the remaining 1 billion as the cost of expenditure on stores.
Five years later, you put 15 suites of sources according to the average price of 70,000 a square foot to sell, the total price of 10.5 billion. Converted back to dollars that's $1.5 billion. And the interest rate of 2.5 million dollars per year, five years is also 12.5 million dollars. How much money have you made in these five years through the rise in housing prices?
We can even boldly point to envision the national currency due to the hot economy, hot money inflow led to currency appreciation. From 1:7 five years ago, it became 1:6.3, so what you actually got is 1.615 billion dollars.
What did the $7 billion you brought in create locally in those five years? It's just a few real estate stores, and about two dozen people's jobs and paychecks. Whose money are you making? The money of our people, of course.
The price of housing has been driven from 40,000 to 75,000, and the price of housing has become a paper fortune. Unless it is sold and someone is willing to take it over at that price to realize the cash.
Did something suddenly occur to you that didn't feel right, that there was a loophole. Of course, if you found the problem proves that you have a strong economic mind. What's the problem?
What does real estate profit on? On commissions from buying and selling listings. The more listings you close, the more commission you get. So how do you get store managers and agents to not try to drive up the price of a home in order to close a deal and get a commission?
It's simple, let the staff's interests and the rise in house prices tied together on it. You think ah, if the staff only earn commission, the rise and fall of housing prices with him does not have much to do. But you set up a game rules, the employee to find a listing for sale. By the name of the employee to buy that listing, the company to give the employee a loan as a down payment. Say the down payment is $1.2 million and the employee pays you back interest at 5%. Don't worry, you're still making money, and don't forget that the interest rate on your cost of capital is only 0.25%. In this way, the interests of employees are directly tied to the rise in housing prices. Employees will certainly be desperate to pull upward to raise housing prices. This kind of play in the early years of China's real estate circle has been played, only later for a variety of loopholes introduced a variety of policies.
Now it is estimated that probably understand how the United States is harvesting the wealth of other countries. Of course, the real estate market is just one of the channels. There is also the stock market, or any other channel. We'll talk about other channels sometime.
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