On 0/6 local time, the Cabinet meeting of Japan approved the revision of three security documents: National Security Strategy, Outline of Defense Plan and Medium-term Defence Force Maintenance Plan. This is the highlight of Japan's defense field this year, mainly involving Japan's defense budget, counterattack capability and Japan's views on the status quo of neighboring countries.
Among them, the Japanese government will allocate 43 trillion yen for national defense spending in the next five years. The current five-year defense expenditure is 27.5 trillion yen, and the Japanese government's defense expenditure in the next five years is equivalent to an increase of 56%. This is also Japan's largest defense budget since World War II.
According to Japanese media reports, it will increase to about 6.5 trillion yen in 2023, while the original budget for 2022 is only about 5.2 trillion yen. By 2027, this amount will increase to 9 trillion yen.
Japanese Prime Minister kishida fumio also said recently that he would raise the military expenditure to 2% of the GDP by fiscal year 2027. At present, Japan's military expenditure accounts for about 1.24% of GDP. Since the war, the Japanese government's military expenditure has basically remained at around 1%.
On February 6, 65438, China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at a regular press conference that in recent years, Japan's defense budget has been increasing for 10 years, and Japan is always exaggerating regional tensions and seeking its own military breakthrough. This trend is very dangerous, forcing Asian neighbors and the international community to have strong doubts about whether Japan can maintain its "exclusive defense" and adhere to the path of peaceful development.
"Japan should seriously reflect on the history of aggression, respect the security concerns of its Asian neighbors, be cautious in the field of military security, and do more things that are conducive to maintaining regional peace and stability." Mao Ning said.
"Significant changes" in the field of security
According to the analysis of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, an authoritative organization that tracks global military expenditure, if this plan of Kishida government is implemented, Japan's military expenditure will jump to the third place in the world, surpassing India and Russia. The American media believe that this move shows that the Japanese government is determined to "substantially strengthen" its military capabilities, and accelerating the development of military capabilities has become a priority policy choice for the Japanese government.
This revision of the three major security documents is also the first time since Japan's current national security strategy was formulated in 20 13. It is regarded as a major change in Japan's security policy after the end of World War II because of the inclusion of such contents as "it is not allowed to unilaterally change the status quo by strength", "to contain unilateral changes with allies" and "to take the main responsibility to stop and eliminate attacks on Japan".
At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on June 5438+04, a reporter asked that Japan is expected to announce its largest defense budget in decades this week. Japanese officials said the move was aimed at responding to China's "threat". What is China's comment on this? Does China pose a "threat" to Japan?
In response, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Wang Wenbin said that China has always been committed to maintaining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region and the world, and it is a partner and opportunity for all countries to develop. Japan ignored the facts, deviated from Japan's commitment to bilateral relations and Sino-Japanese understanding, and discredited China for no reason. China resolutely opposes this and has always expressed its solemn position to Japan through diplomatic channels.
He said that China and Japan are close neighbors and both important countries in the region, and maintaining and developing Sino-Japanese friendly and cooperative relations is in the fundamental interests of the two countries and their peoples. We once again urge Japan to abide by the principles of the four political documents of China and Japan, earnestly embody the political consensus of "cooperating with each other and not threatening each other" in policies and actions, respect the security concerns of Asian neighbors, and be cautious in the field of military security. We can't use exaggerating the "China threat" as an excuse to strengthen the army and expand the army.
A Japanese scholar told the First Financial Reporter that looking at the Sino-Japanese relations in recent years, the two sides sought partnership in the 1990s. In 2000, it experienced political cold and economic fever; After Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office in 2006, the two sides positioned a constructive strategic and mutually beneficial relationship. However, in the context of the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, tough voices have been heard from time to time in the Liberal Democratic Party, which shows that Japan is rethinking this issue. "China's strategic positioning of Japan has not changed, but what about Japan? Therefore, listening to his words and observing his actions, we still need to pay attention to and be vigilant about Japan's next move. " The above scholars said.
In addition, the above-mentioned scholars mentioned that in Japan, since this year, security issues have become the main factor affecting exchanges in the fields of economy, trade, science and technology, and humanities. And it is also affecting the folk feelings between China and Japan. "We should be alert to the tendency of Japan to bring a large number of non-traditional security issues into the security field in the name of exaggerating' external threats' and defending' national security'."
Raise funds through tax reform?
Where will the money for the upcoming increase in defense expenditure come from?
Hiroyuki Hoshino, a senior economist at the First Institute of Life in Japan, said: "Spending more than 40 trillion yen is not the key. The question is whether the government can guarantee the source of funds, and whether we can let funds support the economy through domestic national defense and related industries. If we spend money overseas to buy weapons and other military supplies, it will lead to capital outflows and the depreciation of the yen. "
According to Japanese media reports, because Japan's own financial situation is not ideal, at the cabinet meeting on the morning of 16, the ruling Coalition has raised funds for the increased defense expenditure by increasing taxes. According to the idea of the Kishida government, at least 1/4 of the increase in defense expenditure needs to find a stable source of funds. At present, debt issuance or tax increase that will have a direct impact on household income has been ruled out.
Among them, enterprise tax and tobacco tax are potential adjustment subjects, even including special income tax for post-disaster reconstruction in Northeast China. At present, the Japanese government is exploring a plan to gradually increase taxes after 2024, hoping to ensure 700 billion to 800 billion yen from corporate income tax and 200 billion yen from tobacco tax and reconstruction special income tax. However, according to Japanese media reports, the Kishida government may limit the collection of corporate tax to a small range to avoid "accidental injury" to SMEs.
A recent poll showed that compared with last month, kishida fumio's disapproval rating rose to 52%, the highest level since he took office. Nearly half of the respondents are opposed to Japan's increase in defense spending, and most Japanese people hope that the Japanese government can solve the immediate livelihood problems first.
As the source of expenses is still controversial inside and outside the Liberal Democratic Party, after the New Year holiday in 2023, the Japanese parliament will discuss the specific time of tax collection again.
Extended reading:
Provoke China! Japan's new national security strategy calls China "the biggest strategic challenge ever"
Global Times comprehensively reported that many Japanese media reported on June 5438+03 that the ruling two parties, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party, held a consultation working group meeting on June 5438+02, and reached an agreement on the revision plan of the National Security Strategy and other three documents. After the two parties have completed the inner-party procedures, these three documents will be submitted to the Japanese Cabinet meeting for approval and officially announced on 16. Japanese media said that in the new document, Japan clearly defined China's status as "the biggest strategic challenge ever" and wrote that Japan would have the "counterattack capability" to attack enemy missile launch bases and increase defense costs. 12 13 is the 85th anniversary of the Nanjing Massacre. There is public opinion that some Japanese media released the above amendments at this time, which does not rule out that they are deliberately provoking China. Experts interviewed by Global Times on June 5438+03 said that after a long period of internal brewing, the recent release of the new version of the document may be just a coincidence, but its content itself reflects that Japan not only does not reflect on its history of aggression, but also tries to seek military expansion through so-called "regional threats." This is bound to have a great impact on Sino-Japanese relations and threaten regional peace.
The Japanese people recently held a rally in front of the Prime Minister's official residence to oppose the increase in defense fees.
Japanese media pay attention to the China-related part of the document.
The National Security Strategy, the Outline of the Defense Plan and the Medium-term Defense Force Maintenance Plan are important documents that embody the basic principles of Japan's foreign defense policy. In the revised three new documents, in addition to the name of the national security strategy, the national defense strategy and the defense force maintenance plan will replace the current defense plan outline and the medium-term defense force maintenance plan respectively. According to Japanese media reports, the Japanese government has been actively preparing to revise relevant documents since the first half of this year. After the meeting in 15, the two sides finally reached an understanding in 65438+February 12.
In the new version of the document, how to locate China is one of the focuses that Japanese people are most concerned about. Earlier, a number of Japanese media quoted Japanese government insiders as saying that the new version of the document would focus on the "China threat". According to the NHK website, the new version of the National Security Strategy has pushed China-related content to the first place. The first object of discussion in the theme part of this document is North Korea.
According to Japanese media reports, the new National Security Strategy defines China's foreign policy and military trends as "serious concern", and considers China as "the biggest strategic challenge that Japan and relevant countries need to deal with". The document declares that "China is trying to unilaterally change the status quo in the East China Sea and the South China Sea by virtue of its strength, while not excluding the possibility that China will use force to unify Taiwan Province Province". The Yomiuri Shimbun said that in the current document, Japan defined North Korea as a "serious problem" and expressed China's military trends as "the concern of the international community" including Japan. * * * The news agency also quoted sources as saying that in the new national security strategy, Japan will greatly increase the expression of the Taiwan Province issue.
In addition, Japan's NHK website said that the new national defense strategy would be written as "regarded as a threat by local residents" because Japan believed that "China launched ballistic missiles into Japan's exclusive economic zone around Okinawa Prefecture in August". It is said that the Liberal Democratic Party had hoped to use the phrase "regarded as a threat by residents in China and the region", but the Komeito Party thought that "this is not appropriate in diplomacy" and requested to delete the relevant expression. In the end, the two parties reached a compromise on the plan to delete the word "China", which can be interpreted as the Japanese government has not positioned China as a "threat".
In fact, China has repeatedly refuted Japan's so-called sea-related statement, and stressed that the issue of Taiwan Province Province is an internal affair of China, and Japan has no right to interfere. Regarding Japan's emphasis on China in the new version of the document, Shui Zhigang, director of the Northeast Asian Institute of Heilongjiang Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times reporter 13 that Japan's latest orientation towards China is more antagonistic, which brings more difficulties to solving the differences and contradictions between China and Japan. The new expression is more similar to the positioning of China by the United States and NATO. This will make Japan more targeted when adjusting defense funds and the deployment of medium and long-term military forces, and at the same time it will have a "legal basis."
The Kishida government regards this as a "continuation" of the regime?
In addition to its position on China, Japan will also make it clear in the new version of the Defense Readiness Plan that the defense budget for the five years from 2023 to 2027 is about 43 trillion yen, and will introduce American-made Tomahawk cruise missiles as one of the means to attack the "counterattack capability" of enemy missile launch bases. At the same time, the Japanese government will study raising the defense budget in 2023 to 6.6 trillion yen, a substantial increase of about 20% compared with the original budget of about 5.4 trillion yen in 2022. Japanese public opinion believes that this means that Japan will usher in a major change in its security policy after World War II.
Although the specific amendments to the relevant documents have not yet been announced, the Japanese government's actions have caused domestic dissatisfaction. Yuriko koike, director of the secretariat of the opposition Japanese Production Party, said, "This has not only failed to protect Japan's security, but has threatened Japan's security and cannot be allowed. I will oppose it from the front. "
According to "Tokyo News" 13, the non-governmental organization "Peace Concept Presentation Conference" composed of Japanese constitutional and international political experts recently criticized the so-called "counterattack capability", saying that "it will encourage the arms race and is a very dangerous act of inducing war". The group also believes that the Japanese government's increase in defense budget not only deviates from the principle of exclusive defense, but also easily makes Japan the third largest "military expenditure country" in the world. * * * Takashi Kawakami, a special editorial member of the same news agency, recently published a commentary criticizing that the Kishida government wants to completely change Japan's post-war security policy and completely remove Japan's long-standing "pacifism" signboard, making the country an "ordinary country" capable of waging war, which is a major turning point for Japan. Kishida did not hesitate to change the basic features of postwar Japan in order to achieve the purpose of "prolonging life" for his regime.
Bai Niao Hao, a professor at Hosei University, criticized that the meeting of the bipartisan consultative working group was completely closed and the people knew nothing, which was unacceptable. In order to ensure the financial source of national defense expenditure, kishida fumio announced a tax increase plan of 1 trillion yen, which caused widespread criticism. According to * * * news agency 13, Kishida also said at the LDP high-level meeting that day that he hoped the people would understand.
Kishida fumio data map
Hinder the stable development of Sino-Japanese relations.
Since the Kishida government took office, it has taken frequent military actions, including stepping up research and development of equipment that can attack other countries' territories and extending the range of the "12 land-based anti-ship missile" of the Ground Self-Defense Force to about 1000 km. Actively promoting the revision of the three security-related documents has been interpreted by many analysts as Japan's attempt to break through the restrictions of Japan's domestic peace constitution and achieve the de facto constitutional amendment, which not only provides a legal basis for Japan to strengthen security cooperation with relevant countries and improve its international influence, but also paves the way for Japan to get rid of the post-war institutional constraints and eventually become a "war country."
Yu Hailong, an assistant researcher at the Institute of International Strategy of the Central Party School of China, told the Global Times reporter 13 that Japan also wants to cooperate with the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and curb the development of China by modifying relevant documents, because this is not something that Japan can do alone. However, this move will not only help improve Sino-Japanese relations, but also aggravate the political and social mutual trust deficit between the two countries and hinder the stable and healthy development of Sino-Japanese relations.
Song Zhongping, a military expert, told the Global Times that some Japanese people want to return to the old path of militarism, and they must arouse the high vigilance of regional countries and even the international community. You Zhigang also stressed that Japan should draw lessons from history and take into account the feelings of neighboring countries while emphasizing national defense, otherwise Northeast Asia will once again enter an unbalanced state.