Careful reading of the data of the seventh census can be said to be mixed: on the one hand, the total population of China continues to grow and the quality of the population continues to improve; On the other hand, the total fertility rate is hovering at a low level. How to grasp the general trend of population development in China from the complicated data, so as to grasp the opportunities and challenges of economic, social and industrial development in China in the next decade? The National Business Daily reporter made an analysis from the data and authoritative point of view.
It is worth noting that on the day of the release of Qipu data, many stocks related to the concept of the second child, such as Renhe Pharmaceutical, Bailong Chuangyuan and Camellia, were daily limit.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Cartography of Yang Jing, soochow securities.
The new population hit a new low in nearly 60 years.
Before the release of the data of the seventh census, "whether the population of China continues to grow" was once a hot topic of public opinion. The website of the National Bureau of Statistics also issued a special response saying: "It is understood that the population of China will continue to grow in 2020."
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the morning of May 1 1, the national population was * *1411780,000, an increase of 72.06 million compared with 201339.72 million. However, there are also hidden worries behind the sustained population growth. From the perspective of the annual increase, JiNing, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the preliminary summary of the Seventh General Plan shows that the birth population in China will be120,000 in 2020.
Although affected by COVID-19 epidemic and other factors in 2020,120,000 people will still be the lowest in the past 60 years.
The total number of births has dropped significantly, and the total fertility rate, as a key indicator of fertility level, is also hovering at a low level. The total fertility rate refers to the average number of children per woman of childbearing age in a country or region. In 2020, the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China is 1.3, which is already at a low level. JiNing _ said that this is mainly due to the continuous decrease in the number of women of childbearing age and the gradual weakening of the "two-child" effect.
In this regard, Liang Jianzhang, the founder of Ctrip.com and a population economist, pointed out that encouraging childbearing is a comprehensive project, including many social policy reforms, such as education and real estate policy reforms. The introduction and implementation of these reform measures will take time, and the short-term effective measures may be to give real financial support and directly subsidize families with many children.
JiNing _ At the press conference of the State Council held on June 5438+0 1, he also stressed that according to the relevant survey of the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of children of women of childbearing age in China is 1.8, so long as corresponding support measures are taken, the actual fertility potential can be brought into play.
The population over 60 years old accounts for 18.7%.
In addition to the decrease in the number of new births, the population of China is getting older and older, which is another important conclusion reflected by the data of the seventh national census.
The data shows that the population aged 0/5-59 in China is 894.38 million, accounting for 63.35%. The population aged 60 and over is 264.02 million, accounting for 18.70%.
According to the analysis of the National Bureau of Statistics, compared with 20 10, the proportion of 0- 14, 15-59 and the population aged 60 and above increased by 1.35 percentage points, decreased by 6.79 percentage points and increased by 5.44 percentage points respectively. The proportion of children in China has rebounded, and the adjustment of birth policy has achieved positive results. At the same time, the degree of population aging is further deepened, and it will continue to face the pressure of long-term balanced population development in the future.
The current situation of deepening aging also makes the market's expectation of "silver hair economy" continue to heat up. On Tuesday, with the announcement of the census results, pension concept stocks soared. By the close of 1 1, many stocks, such as Kaineng Health and Hu Da, had daily limit, Yihua Health had two boards, and Xinyue Health, whose concepts of medical beauty and pension overlapped, once had three boards, but the gains narrowed at the close.
According to the analysis of the research report of East Asia Qianhai Securities, the deepening of aging makes this market opportunity prominent, and the growth space of related industries becomes larger, which is conducive to the rapid development of pharmaceutical and biological industries. With the improvement of living standards and the enhancement of residents' health awareness, from the perspective of industrial chain, medical devices from the source end to terminal drugs have become the focus of the elderly. This is expected to stimulate the rise of family doctors, chronic disease management, health care drugs, telemedicine, wearable medical equipment and other industries.
Cinda Securities Research Report also believes that with the aging, the third pillar will become the key direction of China's pension system in the future. Faced with a large space for the development of pension insurance, in recent years, in order to enhance customer stickiness and seize the market, insurance companies have fed back premium growth through differentiated services and vigorously laid out a healthy pension industry. The agency is optimistic about the long-term pulling effect of the development of pension industry on the premium growth of insurance companies.