What needs to be pointed out here is that the policy of stabilizing the property market is also the property market regulation policy. In the context of adhering to the unshakable positioning of "housing and not speculating", in the first half of this year, the intensive release of talent policies in many places has become the main way of fine-tuning local policies.
The policy of stabilizing the property market reached 304 times in the first half of the year.
According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, the cumulative number of real estate control policies in the first half of this year was 304, and in the first half of 20 19, it was 25 1 time. This year, affected by the epidemic, real estate regulation and control policies were intensive and frequent, with a year-on-year increase of 2 1%, which also set a new record for the number of regulation and control in the second half of the year.
According to the data, on the basis of 238 real estate adjustments from June 5438 to April, with the stability of the real estate market, the number of real estate policies decreased significantly in May, and there were 35 relevant real estate policy adjustments nationwide, while the number of real estate adjustment policies in June was only 3 1 time.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told Zhongxin Jingwei reporter, "In the face of the epidemic in 2020, all countries basically choose to release water to save the market. For the most concerned China real estate market, the frequent policy of 1-4 months has also become the biggest feature. "
He pointed out that from May to June, most real estate policies were still focused on talent policies, and the overall real estate market has shown a steady upward trend. Except for a few cities such as Beijing, the impact of the epidemic basically disappeared from May to June.
Super 120 City Releases Talent Policy
At the beginning of the year, a sudden epidemic hit the real estate market hard, and the real estate market showed signs of recovery. As the epidemic situation stabilized, the resumption of work and production in various places continued to advance, and the real estate market stabilized and rebounded.
Since May, many places have introduced talent policies such as no threshold for settlement, re-employment after settlement first, and favorable policies have frequently blown to the property market, and some areas have given reasonable housing purchase qualifications and subsidies.
According to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in the first half of the year, more than 120 cities have issued various talent policies to attract talents and labor, and the housing subsidy policies supporting the talent policies are also showing a blowout trend.
In terms of settlement, many provinces and cities have experienced a blowout of settlement policies, and more than 35 provinces have issued settlement easing policies. Most cities that have introduced the new talent policy have completely liberalized the restrictions on the settlement of educated talents, and "there is no threshold for settlement", "re-employment after settlement" and "relatives can rely on" have become the three key words. Taking Shenyang as an example, at the beginning of April this year, Shenyang issued seven supplementary opinions, completely canceled the restrictions on the settlement of talents, further liberalized the settlement policy, and truly realized the "zero threshold" for talents to settle down.
It is worth mentioning that, although the policy content of loosening the property market varies from place to place, most of them have the phenomenon of "one-day tour". It is found that at least 12 real estate deregulation policies have been suspended or adjusted in Guangzhou, Zhumadian, Baoji, Jinan, Haining, Liuzhou, Qingdao, Chifeng, Jingzhou and Huai 'an this year.
Recently, it was reported that the property market regulation policy in Huailai County, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province has been loosened, and the housing purchase restriction policy has been cancelled. On July 1 day, the staff of the Housing and Urban-Rural Planning and Construction Office of Huailai County, Zhangjiakou City responded to the media that the so-called news of lifting the purchase restriction was false.
Zhang Dawei told Zhongxin Jingwei reporter: "This means that although the property market has one city and one policy, the policies introduced by various localities for the local property market are still too arbitrary. Some policies obviously touch the bottom line of the policy and violate the principle of not speculating in housing."
Expert: It is unlikely that the door of real estate regulation will be opened.
This year's "Government Work Report" proposes to insist that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market because of the city's policy.
From the perspective of real estate financial supervision, "tightening" is still the main tone, and real estate financing channels such as trust and bond issuance have narrowed, and bank credit funds or funds have entered the property market through trust and other channels to tighten. The central bank has repeatedly reiterated that houses are used for living, not for speculation; Don't regard real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy; Maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies.
Regarding the trend of the property market in the second half of the year, Zhang Dawei believes that it is unlikely that the door of real estate regulation will be opened. Whether the property market can be bought depends on credit and talents, and how big these two windows are. The whole world is releasing water, and the standards for identifying talents will be lower and lower. Policies in these two directions are expected to become the mainstream policies in the market in 2020.
Jaco, Dean of the Branch of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said: "Under the guidance of the policy of" staying in the city and not speculating ",in the first half of 2020, the property market maintained a steady development under the great influence of the epidemic. It is expected that the overall deregulation will remain cautious in the second half of the year, especially the demand-side policies, such as the government's loose space involving down payment ratio, purchase restriction and loan restriction. "
Jaco predicted that there will be a round of plate rotation in the third quarter. In some cities with hot transactions in April and May, the heat will return to normal, while in some cities with cold markets in the first half of the year, the heat may increase significantly. Overall, the gap between the market turnover in the second half of the year and last year will gradually narrow, but the property market in hot cities and regions may still reach a new peak. The expected stability of house prices and land prices will be further strengthened, but the differentiation between cities will continue.
Wang Ruochen, a researcher at Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, believes that with the epidemic under control and the normalization of real estate activities since the second quarter, sales and new construction will return to the track before the epidemic in the second half of the year. Looking forward to the future, it is expected that the overall supply of commercial housing in China will still exceed demand, reflecting the characteristics of "stability".