Where does the tobacco online special order come from? On the surface, it should be collected according to the needs of customers, but what is hidden behind customers is the demand of the market, the demand of consumers, the consumption ability of consumers and the consumption choice of consumers. The demand of retailers is only a reflection of the demand of the market and consumers, so it is more accurate to say that orders come from the market and consumers.
Where is the order? Orders from consumers, retailers, regional marketing departments and big markets in the city, after processing, seem to be sent to industrial enterprises, which produce according to orders, but can industrial enterprises really produce according to orders with full quality, full quantity and full brand? Under the constraint of the national production plan, industrial enterprises need to comprehensively weigh the tax, output, structure and other aspects, and also consider the feasibility of the order, seek the most suitable supply production plan, and finally produce the supply, which will eventually end in the market and form the market demand for the next cycle.
What role can order supply play? Order supply is a turning point to change the industry's "upper body plan, lower body market", a further expansion of the industry's marketization level, a manifestation of practicing "two maintenances" to a greater extent and scope, and a concretization of using Scientific Outlook on Development to guide the industry's development.
The key to the success of "order supply" is to do a good job in two aspects: one is to accurately predict orders, and the other is to jointly regulate the supply of goods.
First, accurately forecast orders.
1, market-oriented and consumption-oriented. The market consists of consumers, and the consumption structure of urban consumers is different from that of rural consumers. The consumption level of industrial and mining enterprises with large floating population is different from that of ordinary villages and residential areas, and the cigarette consumption of people with different age structures is also different. In order to collect orders, we must be market-oriented, focus on the economic development level, population, number of smokers, income level and disposable income of cigarette consumers in a region, and analyze the characteristics of consumers' brand selection, so as to make the formed orders the most effective and reasonable.
2. Forecast the market from a dynamic and developmental point of view. The cigarette market is dynamic. For example, customer Zhang San bought three A- Red Rivers in store A, but store A said that they didn't have them, then went to store B to buy them, but they still didn't have them, and then went to store C to buy them, but they still didn't have them. Every retailer thinks that if the supply is sufficient, I can sell three more A- Red Rivers. When collecting customer demand orders, the account manager thinks that the market needs nine A- Red Rivers. In the same way, it can be extended to the county marketing department and the whole city market, and can be extended to brands. The result is that the total number of orders increased according to customer demand is far greater than the actual market demand. Therefore, we should realize that the consumption market in a certain region is limited and its consumption capacity is basically stable. The satisfaction of a brand and quantity can produce consumption substitution for other brands.
According to customer orders, supply is divided into two stages. In the first stage, account managers and municipal companies are required to forecast the supply demand within half a year. In the process of forecasting, according to the economic development and current supply situation of various places over the years, the supply situation in the next six months is predicted. The second stage is to make small-scale adjustments in the process of market changes every month. At the beginning of the first month, the delivery plan for the third month should be determined, and the plan adjustment for the third month should be determined and reported to the industrial enterprise later. The industrial enterprise shall arrange the production plan in the second month and deliver the goods to the commercial enterprise before the end of the second month. Predicting the cigarette sales market 40-50 days in advance has a time-space span. We should make good preparations for market regulation in each time period, collect forecast orders with a development perspective, see how the market will develop in the next 40-50 days, and consider development factors, so as to ensure that there is no shortage, but also to achieve "two maintenance" and "three satisfaction". During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the state will pay more attention to the development and construction of rural areas and will vigorously strengthen its support for rural areas. In the future, the rural market will develop at an alarming rate, and the consumption structure and consumption ability of farmers will be rapidly improved. Therefore, when forecasting rural demand, the change of farmers' disposable income must be considered to improve the accuracy of order forecasting.
3. Forecast orders with scientific mathematical statistics methods. Order supply requires high accuracy of orders. At present, the forecast of market and sales is carried out from top to bottom under the control of the plan. The forecasting method is rough and the forecasting process is passive, and some basic algebraic operations are used. According to the order supply, the order is made from the bottom up. In the process of forecasting, many soft environment factors are integrated, such as the different sales coefficients during the Spring Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival and the months before and after, the substitution between cigarettes at different prices, the proportion of cigarette consumers, the number of floating population and so on. Therefore, the implementation of organizing goods supply according to orders requires high market measurement methods and accuracy, and it is very important to refer to historical data, current sales situation and future market development evaluation. Advanced statistical analysis tools such as SPSS and Eview should be adopted, and at the same time, high-level and skilled statistical analysts should be selected to make predictions, so as to develop advanced economic statistics on the basis of financial statistics.
The account manager should do the basic work of order forecasting. Account manager is a new force in customer service of tobacco companies. At present, the role of account manager has not been fully exerted, which is limited to the maintenance of retailers, the collection and arrangement of market information, the sales and service of cigarettes, the transmission of business information and so on. The operation mode of order supply puts forward higher requirements for account managers. The focus of the account manager's work has shifted to collecting market information, collecting consumer information, tapping market potential and then forecasting the market, providing information basis for the company's decision-making level. In the process of order forecasting, the account manager should make clear the radiation crowd, main service objects and sales level of each cigarette retailer, and understand the economic development level and format composition of its service area. On the basis of thoroughly grasping the market, predict the total sales volume and locate the cigarette sales structure. Therefore, it is more important to train a group of senior account managers who understand market analysis.
5. Accurate prediction of orders must grasp the symmetry of information. The symmetry of information mainly involves the following aspects: first, commercial enterprises must know which brands are produced by industrial enterprises, which brands are mainly cultivated, and within which range they can provide goods; Two, the business direction and phased sales plan of commercial enterprises this year, the current supply situation and the next stage of industrial supply plan; The third is the enforceability of industrial enterprises to market orders. For example, at present, the supply of five kinds of cigarettes is tight, and industrial enterprises can't organize and generate plans as scheduled, which leads to the problem of low-grade cigarette supply can't be solved immediately. All this information needs to be delivered to all kinds of people in time. The symmetry of information determines the accuracy of forecasting, and the accuracy of orders determines the success or failure of organizing supply according to orders. This information should be known not only to decision makers and leaders, but also to account managers, deliverymen and special managers. Under appropriate circumstances, it is also necessary for retailers to know some information to guide the healthy development of the market.
Second, jointly regulate the supply of goods.
The predicted orders come from the market, and the market demand is the foundation, but we can't let the market develop. The growth of cigarette market needs guidance and regulation, and the main force of regulation is supply. Effective supply control is the basis of safeguarding national interests and consumers' interests, and it is also an important guarantee to ensure the stable, healthy and harmonious development of the tobacco industry. In the case of organizing supply according to orders, it is even more necessary for industry and commerce to jointly regulate and control. For the regulation of reasonable supply, we need to pay attention to the following issues:
1. About cigarette products. The first is the structure. Doing a good job in the market is not to do a low-grade market, let alone a low-grade cigarette market, but to guide the cigarette market. The growth of cigarette structure should be synchronized with the improvement of consumer spending power. Therefore, the orientation of cigarette structure should be the actual market demand of commercial enterprises multiplied by the growth coefficient of disposable income of consumers at a certain stage, and industrial enterprises should also organize production according to this standard. Similarly, the profit points of industrial and commercial enterprises are also concentrated on the structure. Cigarettes with appropriate structure are an important guarantee for both industry and commerce. The market must not be too saturated because of excessive supply, disrupting the retail guidance price. Therefore, it is necessary for industrial and commercial enterprises to jointly control the supply of goods. The second is to smell. The smell of cigarettes needs to remain stable for a long time. At present, in the production process of industrial enterprises, cigarette brands with good market conditions will definitely not adjust their smells in the production process. In a certain period of smoking, consumers have already had a certain understanding of this brand of cigarettes. If the taste of cigarettes is adjusted, it will naturally affect the market sales, and then affect the accuracy of market forecast, which will inevitably lead to the unhealthy development of organizing the supply of goods according to orders.
2. About the performance of the contract. The backup guarantee of organizing goods supply according to orders lies in industrial enterprises. If the orders provided by commercial enterprises, industrial enterprises can't produce or the contracts can't be fulfilled on time for other reasons, it will definitely deal a heavy blow to the organization of goods supply according to orders. Therefore, the timeliness of contract performance is very important. As a commercial enterprise, it is very important to choose those national key enterprises with high credibility as suppliers.
3. About brand cultivation. The root of organizing the supply of goods according to the order lies in the brand, which is the link between industry and commerce. It is extremely important to stabilize a strong brand and cultivate a growing brand. For a period of time after the city company became the main business entity, the promotion of new brands was relatively passive, mainly because the promotion of new brands could not be carried out simultaneously after the products were put on the market. Therefore, after organizing the supply according to the order, industrial enterprises need to provide some promotional items and cigarettes for account managers and retailers of commercial enterprises, so as to improve the growth of new brand market as soon as possible and improve the accuracy of market forecast.
Successful supply according to order, accurate forecast of order and joint control of supply are only two important links, and other related links are also involved. Only by constantly discovering problems and improving them in the future practice can all links develop harmoniously and order supply be successful steadily.