Text/Liu Qiao
Today's meeting itself is about elastic growth (note: "elastic growth" means that enterprises should not simply pursue speed, but should pay more attention to the quality of development, pay attention to sustainable development, and create a more flexible development model), and the most important premise of elastic growth is to understand what will happen in the future and how to cross these trends in the future.
Because I have done some basic research on the "14th Five-Year Plan", I predict the five major trends that will appear in China in about 5~ 15 years from the perspective of the "14th Five-Year Plan".
The first trend is the sustained growth of total factor productivity.
When it comes to China in the next 5~ 15 years, there is a key word, that is "total factor productivity", which will become the most important driving force for future economic growth and social development.
After 40 years of rapid growth, China has completed the process of industrialization, and the reason behind it is industrialization itself. At the same time, we have found a good balance between the government and the market, which is the so-called effective market plus the government.
The stage of rapid economic growth in China can be explained by Solow model. A country's labor force, capital investment and total factor productivity can promote economic growth, and China has achieved very good results in these three factors, which explains the growth of China.
Liu Qiao: Five Trends of China's Economic Development during the Tenth Five-Year Plan.
Speech site (Photo courtesy of CITIC Publishing Group, the same below)
China completed the industrialization process 40 years before the reform and opening up, and the total factor productivity basically remained above 4%, which directly led to 9% or even double-digit economic growth. After entering 20 10, the total factor productivity has dropped to 2. 1%, and some scholars even estimate that it has dropped below 2% in the last year or two. At present, the proportion of the tertiary industry in China has reached 54%, the industry has dropped below 40%, and the manufacturing industry accounts for 27-28% of GDP. It will be difficult to maintain a relatively high total factor productivity in the future.
Liu Qiao: Five Trends of China's Economic Development during the Tenth Five-Year Plan.
How to solve it? It is often said in the discourse system of policy that China should maintain sustained, high-quality and healthy development. Where is the source? Total factor productivity is a very important source.
The general secretary mentioned that socialist modernization should be basically realized in 2035, and the current task is reversed from the long-term goal of 2035. At present, the total factor productivity of China is about 43.3% of that of the United States, which is 20 14, and the figure of 20 19 is even lower. To realize modernization, the total factor productivity of a country must reach at least 80% or even higher than that of the United States.
This poses a very sharp challenge. I roughly calculated that if we want to approach the level of 65% total factor productivity in the United States in 2035, it means that the annual growth rate in the future 15 needs to be 1.95 percentage points higher than that in the United States. The current growth rate in the United States is about 0.7~ 1 percentage point. Industrialization was completed earlier, and in the post-industrial era, the service industry accounted for more than 80% of the GDP of the United States, which means that China needs to achieve a total factor productivity growth rate of 2.5-3 percentage points in the next 15 year. This is what we need to pay attention to in understanding the sustained and high-quality economic growth in the next 5~ 15 years.
Liu Qiao: Five Trends of China's Economic Development during the Tenth Five-Year Plan.
There is also a big background. If human society completes the industrialization process, it can still maintain the growth rate of total factor productivity of 2.5%~3%, which is unprecedented. Is it possible for China to create a second economic miracle? The past 40 years may be an economic miracle, and the second economic miracle depends on whether it can maintain a high total factor productivity after the completion of industrialization in the next 5~ 15 years.
Regarding China's economy, in my opinion, if the high growth rate of total factor productivity can be maintained in the future, China's economy will be basically optimistic in the future; If it is the other way around, we will look at China's economy with a pessimistic view.
My personal judgment is that to achieve the long-term goal of basically realizing modernization in 2035, it is necessary to maintain a high growth rate. China has four relatively favorable factors, which together may help us maintain a high growth rate of total factor productivity.
The first is industrialization.
Since the 1872 Westernization Movement, China has tried to complete the industrialization process, which was finally basically completed in the 40 years of reform and opening up. Because of the economic and industrial changes in China, we have entered the second half of the Internet, facing the unique opportunity of digital industrial transformation. What may be behind this is the growth rate of total factor productivity, and such opportunities and scenarios are more likely to appear in China, which is a favorable factor for us.
The second is new infrastructure.
Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about new infrastructure. My personal understanding of the new infrastructure is the infrastructure construction for digital transformation and industrial digital transformation. This future can bring a very strong space for the improvement of total factor productivity.
The third is the industry of big countries.
At present, the proportion of China's industrial GDP has dropped below 40%, and the manufacturing industry has dropped to about 28%. However, in the future, it is conceivable that due to the reversal of globalization and subtle changes in Sino-US relations, it may be necessary and endogenous for China to maintain a relatively complete industrial chain. In this case, the proportion of manufacturing or industrial GDP will remain at a high level in the future.
Now in China, the manufacturing industry accounts for 28% of GDP, while in the United States, this figure has already dropped to 1 1%-Trump has been president for four years, and has been talking about the manufacturing industry returning to the United States, but in the third quarter, it hit a record low, dropping to11%. For a long time to come, China can learn from the United States, and the proportion of manufacturing industry should be kept at a high level, about above 20%, so as to bring a lot of room for the future total factor productivity improvement, technological innovation and productivity improvement. This is the unique advantage of China, and it is also a point repeatedly mentioned by current policy makers in the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal.
Finally, improve the efficiency of resource allocation.
Total factor productivity mainly comes from two aspects, one is the technology itself, and the other is the construction of production organization form and institutional mechanism. China has a very broad space in this respect. At present, the efficiency of the whole resource allocation in China is still relatively low. As long as the efficiency of resource allocation is improved, the total factor productivity will be greatly improved.
The second trend is that China moves upstream in the global value chain.