In the Nordic epidemic, the "baby boom" burst the delivery room, and almost all developed countries are facing the challenge brought by the low fertility rate. The global total fertility rate (TFR) dropped from 4.97 to 2.47, and the "baby boom" crowded the delivery room in the Nordic epidemic.
1 During the epidemic, there were not enough beds in Icelandic hospitals. However, unlike everyone's imagination, it is not patients but pregnant women who are about to give birth who are in urgent need of beds in COVID-19.
Since the epidemic, the fertility rate in most developed countries has fallen sharply. For example, in 2020, the fertility rate in the United States reached the lowest in history, and the number of people born in France that year was the least since World War II.
However, the Nordic countries stand out, with the birth population rising instead of falling, especially in Iceland: in the second quarter of 20021year, the birth population in Iceland was16.5% higher than the normal level; The birth rates in Finland and Norway have also increased by 7% and 5% respectively.
Ms. Zhang, a China scholar living in Norway and the mother of the child, told China Business News that she was not surprised by the result. In her view, mainly because the Nordic countries have social welfare, the epidemic has not caused much uncertainty; At the same time, because of the epidemic, working at home and spending more time on your own will help improve the fertility rate.
There are not enough beds in the hospital.
202 1 Iceland has been trying to expand the number of obstetric beds since the "baby boom" in the second quarter.
In fact, as early as June 5438+February 2020, hospitals in Iceland first noticed the sharp increase in the number of women who came for prenatal examination. Gereda Sdottir is the chief midwife of Landspítali, the largest hospital in Reykjavik, Iceland, where 70% of babies in China were born. She said: "We thought it was only a few months. After a few months, the figures should come down."
However, what happened next was beyond her expectation.
In the summer of 20021year, a large number of babies were born, and there was a serious shortage of medical staff. Iceland has to recruit midwives from Germany, Poland and even as far away as Australia, but the manpower is still insufficient. Finally, we can only recall the midwives who have retired or even been in their 70 s for first aid. However, several times a month, because of the serious shortage of obstetric beds, doctors can only push pregnant women who are in urgent need of delivery into the emergency room for delivery.
Gereda Sdottir estimates that the fertility rate in Iceland increased by about 9% in 20021year. For Gereda Sdottir personally, this means more pressure. On the one hand, there is a shortage of midwives, and at the same time, we need to consider the factors of epidemic prevention and control. In short, in her words, "what is happening now is unbelievable."
The short-term impact of the "baby boom" on Iceland soon became obvious. A mother was worried when looking for a day care institution for her 1 year-old child. She searched 28 nurseries before finding a vacancy. She said, "I don't know, but I think this is a problem that all children have to face."
A similar situation happened in Finland. Kuboth Ka, a researcher at the Austrian Population Institute, said: "Since the beginning of the epidemic, the fertility rate in Finland has continued to increase." He believes that during the epidemic, Finland's ban measures were relatively mild, which may be a reason for promoting fertility growth.
Welfare promotes fertility?
Ms. Zhang told the first financial reporter that having a baby is a long-term plan, and the epidemic has not added too much uncertainty to the Nordic people. On the contrary, it has enhanced some guarantees that are not usually available.
Before the Norwegian announced the reopening of the border by stages in September, 20021year, the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases was stable at around several hundred per day, which was basically controllable. Although the number of confirmed cases has increased significantly after the reopening of the border, up to now, 73.9% of Norway's population has completed the whole vaccination, and the impact of the epidemic is still within the allowable range.
Ms. Zhang said that unlike other European countries, the Nordic people generally have a high degree of cooperation with the government's decision-making, which is also convenient for the control of the epidemic.
Ms. Zhang told reporters that the Norwegian people's concern about the epidemic was mainly in the early stage of the epidemic, and then the Norwegian government came up with a subsidy scheme to subsidize the income loss of ordinary people caused by the epidemic 100%. The previous unemployment insurance only covered 80% of the original income. Therefore, the epidemic has not changed the economic situation of ordinary people much.
"Everyone is used to government welfare and not worried about the future, which provides a basic guarantee for the improvement of fertility rate." She said that although other developed countries have provided some support, it is difficult to compare with the Nordic countries in strength, because the social welfare in Northern Europe is already at a high level.
Ms. Zhang said that most non-service industries in Norway can still work from home, saving a lot of time for commuting and business trips. Because of the epidemic, young people also canceled their travel plans and stayed at home more.
"If you have more time, it will be natural to have children." She said. This is mainly divided into two categories: one is because of busy career, and now I have time to have children; There is also a plan, but after the outbreak, the plan is simply advanced, which is the case among her friends.
Why the fertility rate in northern Europe has become an "excellent student"
Although many experts say that social welfare has little to do with fertility rate, social welfare did promote fertility to some extent during the epidemic. These welfare policies mainly include economic subsidies, tax incentives, holiday support and social care.
Carlson, head of population issues at Iceland's National Statistics Group, said that for northern Europeans, "in times of crisis, you can suspend your career and focus on parenting, without worrying about the financial situation of your family at all."
All five Nordic countries provide at least 1 1 month paid parental leave. The specific amount depends on the individual's income before giving birth, ranging from 53% in Denmark to nearly 100% in Norway. In Iceland, parents have a paid holiday of 12 months, and they can get 80% of their original income, up to about 28,000 RMB.
Carlson gave birth to a child before the global financial crisis in 2008, and he even thought it was very helpful for his family to survive the financial crisis. Many people said that if it weren't for the epidemic, many babies might not have been born at all, so the "baby boom" in northern Europe might not last.
Ms. Zhang also told the First Financial Reporter that if the fertility rate drops after the epidemic recedes, she thinks it is normal.
After World War II, there was a baby boom in Europe and America, but not in Northern Europe. Naturally, northern Europe is the first to face the dilemma of low fertility rate in Europe.
Sweden is the most populous country in Northern Europe, and its national population has just crossed the horizontal line of 6.5438+million. For decades, the fertility rate in Sweden has fluctuated in a "W" shape.
The total fertility rate in Sweden fell below the generational replacement line of 2. 1 in 1968, while the total fertility rate in Europe remained at around 2.5 in the same period. Since then, Sweden's fertility rate has been in the process of slow decline, with periodic changes, short-term lows and upward adjustments. At present, the total fertility rate is stable at around 1.8.
In 20021year, Sweden's total fertility rate was 1.84, ranking first in Europe together with France. In addition, the fertility rates in Denmark, Iceland and Norway are all higher than the European average. These countries, which first fell into low fertility, have now become the "top students" of stable fertility in Europe.
Almost all developed countries are facing the challenge of low fertility rate. According to the report of the United Nations World Population Outlook, from 1950 to 2020, the world total fertility rate (TFR) will drop from 4.97 to 2.47, and the corresponding index of developed countries will drop from 2.82 to 1.64.
In East Asia, South Korea, Singapore and other countries have experienced rapid demographic transition, and the total fertility rate reached a very low level at the beginning of this century. South Korea has been the country with the lowest fertility rate in the world for many years, and the total fertility rate in 2020 is only 0.84.
Nordic epidemic, "baby boomers" crowded delivery rooms. The welfare in northern Europe is universal and extensive, and people enjoy various social welfare at every stage of their life from cradle to grave.
1, Nordic countries encourage childbearing, and if you have children, you can get government rewards. The more children, the more rewards; Finnish women enjoy one-year paid maternity leave and their jobs are preserved; If the maternity leave is too long and she wants to go to work, the husband can take care of the children at home and enjoy paid maternity leave; Everything in kindergarten is free. Primary schools, middle schools and universities are free of charge or enjoy high subsidies from tuition fees to accommodation. Sweden encourages students to study abroad, and 30% of the total number of international students receive government funding. Everyone enjoys medical insurance. The elderly have old-age insurance, and the government provides special apartments for the elderly and the disabled, and provides quality care. Unemployed people have unemployment benefits, and the current unemployment benefits in Denmark are $65,438+0,800 per month.
2. The earliest and most influential welfare system in Northern Europe is Sweden. Sweden is recognized as a "typical welfare state", also known as the "Swedish model", which is the "third way" between capitalism and socialism. As early as before the First World War, Sweden implemented social insurance for some employees, including work injury, illness and pension, and later implemented unemployment insurance. With the strengthening of economic strength, we will gradually improve its public welfare system and provide generous subsidies for education, medical care and care for children and the elderly. This welfare system, coupled with the progressive tax system, has narrowed the gap between people's actual income and living standards. It makes it impossible for someone in this society to have everything, and it is impossible for someone to have nothing. An American sociologist once said, "Sweden born in the 20th century is like winning the lottery". This shows that even some Americans envy Sweden's welfare system.
Nordic epidemic, "baby boom" crowded delivery room. Almost all developed countries in the world are facing the challenge brought by low fertility rate. According to the World Population Prospects report released by the United Nations, from 1950 to 2020, the global total fertility rate (TFR) will drop from 4.97 to 2.47, and the corresponding index of developed countries will drop from 2.82 to 1.64. The population transformation of the old developed countries in Europe started early and took a long time, while the population transformation of the developed countries in East Asia started late and changed rapidly. But without exception, since the mid-1960s, the fertility rate in these countries has fallen below the replacement level.
Long-term low fertility rate will accelerate the aging of population age structure, make the total population fall into negative growth, and affect the sustainable development of social economy. Faced with the challenge, many low-fertility countries have introduced policies to encourage fertility directly or indirectly, but the effects are quite different. The fertility rate in France, Britain, Denmark, Sweden and other countries has obviously rebounded, while Greece, Italy, South Korea and other countries have been hovering at a very low fertility level.
So, what kind of policy ideas are effective?
Fertility differences in developed countries
About half of the total fertility data of more than 200 countries and regions released by the United Nations Population Division in 20 18 are below the replacement level (generally believed to be about 2. 1), and the countries and regions with the lowest fertility rate are mainly distributed in East Asia and Southern Europe.
Fertility trends in developed countries mainly include the following categories:
The first type of countries are "top students" with stable fertility rate, and the fertility rate is always in the process of slow decline. Although it hit a short-term low, the total fertility rate finally stabilized at around 1.8, such as France and Britain in western Europe and Denmark, Sweden and Iceland in northern Europe. In 1960s, the total fertility rate in France dropped to 1.6 ~ 1.8. After 2000, it was adjusted back to above 1.8, and Britain and Denmark also adjusted back to above 1.8 after 2006. However, due to the overall economic downturn in Europe, the total fertility rate in Nordic countries such as Norway, Netherlands and Finland has dropped significantly in recent years, and the average fertility rate in 20 18 is lower than 1.6.
The second type of countries experienced a long period of low fertility rate, which rose slowly after 20 10, but the overall fertility rate was still at a low level, typically Germany and Japan. During the whole 20 years from 1990 to 20 10, the total fertility rate in Germany was below 1.4, and rose to 1.57 in 20 18. Japan's total fertility rate was below 1.4 from 1997 to 20 12, and only rose to 1.42 in 20 18. Germany and Japan are both industrial powers that rose after World War II, with abundant financial resources. Faced with the long-term low fertility rate, the two countries have increased their investment in child welfare policies in recent years.
In the third category of countries, the fertility rate has dropped rapidly to a very low level (generally, the total fertility rate is below 1.3), but there has been an obvious upward trend in recent years, such as the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Latvia and Russia in Central and Eastern Europe. Influenced by the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the total fertility rate in Central and Eastern European countries began to decline rapidly in the early 1990s, and it fell to a very low fertility level around 2000, and it showed an upward trend after 20 10, in which the total fertility rate in Russia rose to 1.77 in 20 15, and then began to turn around.
The fertility rate in the fourth category of countries has dropped to a very low level, and the upward trend is still unclear, such as Greece, Italy and Portugal in southern Europe and South Korea and Singapore in East Asia. Compared with western Europe and northern Europe, the fertility rate in southern Europe declined later but quickly, reaching a very low level at the end of the 20th century, and rising briefly around 20 10. However, due to the economic downturn in recent years, the fertility rate fluctuated obviously and the recovery was weak. South Korea and Singapore in East Asia have experienced rapid demographic transition, and the total fertility rate reached a very low level at the beginning of this century. South Korea has been the country with the lowest fertility rate in the world for many years, and the total fertility rate in 2020 is only 0.84.
Overall, the fertility situation in developed countries is not optimistic.
Why do they become "top students" in fertility?
In order to encourage childbearing, developed countries have taken many measures, and the standard policies mainly include economic subsidies, tax incentives, holiday support and social care.
Economic subsidies include maternity allowance and child allowance. For example, Norwegian mothers receive a subsidy of NOK 38,750 after giving birth; Japan provides a monthly subsidy of 1 0.5 million yen for children aged 0-3, and a monthly subsidy of110,000 yen for children aged 3 and above who graduated from primary school.
Tax preference is an indirect form of economic subsidy. High-income families in Germany can choose to get child allowance through tax relief. In 20 10, the average tax allowance per child is 984 euros. Britain, Spain and other countries have similar policies.
Statutory maternity leave and parental leave are established for working parents to take care of their children. French women have 20 weeks maternity leave with full pay for their first child and 40 weeks maternity leave for their second child. Parents in Sweden can enjoy 480 days of paid parental leave.
Social care institutions can help mothers return to work. Denmark 1 ~ 5 years old children enter kindergartens as high as 90%, and most of the expenses are borne by the government. Japan has implemented free preschool education since 20 19.
The intensity and time of implementation of these policies vary from country to country. The relevant policies of France, Sweden, Denmark and other countries as "top students" also have the following characteristics:
First, the government-led welfare policy system is not only beneficial to the people, but also generous enough.
According to the classification of welfare countries by Danish scholar Espin Anderson, Nordic countries such as Denmark, Sweden and Norway are typical social democratic welfare countries. Family welfare policies to encourage childbearing are an important part of these government-led national welfare systems. From the perspective of inclusiveness, children under the age of 18 can receive government subsidies regardless of their family economic situation; From the public point of view, they mainly solve the problem of child care in public institutions; In terms of generosity, the proportion of public expenditure on family welfare in GDP in these countries is always higher than that in other European countries.
Second, the concept of gender neutrality is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people and has been reflected in the process of childbirth and parenting.
The concept of gender equality in northern Europe is considered to be an important factor in maintaining a stable fertility rate. Norway is the first country in the world to issue parental leave quotas for fathers. As long as fathers have worked for at least six months in the 10 months before their children are born, they have the right to take parental leave. Parents * * * enjoy 49-59 weeks of paid parental leave, of which 10 weeks of parental leave quota for fathers cannot be transferred to mothers. Swedish fathers will also receive additional "gender equality rewards" when taking parental leave. According to Statistics Norway, the proportion of fathers using parental leave is increasing, and the time spent on child care and housework is also increasing, which has a significant positive correlation with the fertility rate.
Thirdly, universalism and egalitarianism have guided the idea of "de-familyization".
Nordic family policy is based on universalism and egalitarianism, that is, all citizens have the right to enjoy basic welfare and should bear family and social responsibilities equally, and finally form a welfare model in which the people are responsible for paying taxes for their work and the state is responsible for taking care of the elderly and children. The government subsidies for preschool education in Sweden, Norway, Denmark and other countries cover not only children aged 3-6, but also children aged 1-2, forming a child care system with public institutions as the mainstay and private institutions as the supplement, helping mothers to return to employment to the greatest extent.
The fourth is to promote women's full employment, giving consideration to career and family.
The high welfare level of high welfare countries is based on high taxes and full employment, and its family policy has always been aimed at promoting gender equality in the labor market. In order to promote women's full employment, maternity leave in Sweden includes not only pregnancy leave and paid parental leave, but also 120 days of temporary parental leave for parents of children under 2 years old. France provides a variety of child care models, mainly including "mother's assistant", live-in nanny, custody nanny, public nursery, enterprise nursery, medical nursery, "city hope" nursery and so on. The government provides nursing support in various ways. As a result, Sweden, Denmark, France, Norway and other countries not only have high fertility rates, but also the employment rate of their mothers is at a high level in OECD countries. It is worth mentioning that Finland directly grants cash subsidies for child care to families instead of subsidizing child care institutions, which makes the employment rate of Finnish mothers significantly lower than that of Sweden and Denmark.
Welfare policies should also be treated dialectically.
Can the policy of encouraging fertility increase the fertility rate? The answer to this question is still controversial and needs to be treated with caution.
First of all, economic subsidy is the most commonly used and direct way, but it is criticized for its heavy burden and short-term effect.
Economic subsidies can only be effective if they can effectively reduce the cost of raising a family. Therefore, the government needs to pay a huge child welfare fund for this, which may be at the expense of economic development efficiency. The high welfare system has always been regarded as a stumbling block to the European economy. According to Eurostat data, European countries do not intend to increase or even reduce spending on family policies.
Demographic experts and scholars in Australia, Russia, Japan and other countries point out that economic subsidies are short-lived, and economic incentives will prompt women who originally had family planning to give birth earlier and shorten the birth interval. Because the fertility will of the whole society has not changed obviously, the fertility rate will continue to decline after a short rise. Moreover, the effect of economic incentives on low-income families is more obvious, and the family planning of high-income families will not change.
Secondly, the influence of maternity leave length and maternity leave allowance on fertility varies from place to place
Prolonging maternity leave can really help professional women allocate more energy to take care of their children, but too long maternity leave will aggravate women's weak position in the labor market, and enterprises pursuing economic benefits will also avoid using female labor force with reproductive needs, which may further reduce women's willingness to get married and have children. Therefore, the study on the relationship between the length of maternity leave and the fertility rate may draw completely opposite conclusions.
Maternity allowance is considered to have a positive impact on the fertility rate, but its sources are different in different countries. Maternity allowance may increase the pressure of government public expenditure and the burden of social security funds or enterprises.
Third, the concept of "socialized" parenting and family gender neutrality have a positive impact on fertility.
Studies in Nordic countries have confirmed that the social system has a positive effect on the fertility rate, and social construction of gender equality in Sweden is also considered as the key to improve the fertility rate.
It is worth mentioning that the construction of the social field is not achieved overnight. As early as 1939, Sweden passed the bill that "women who are engaged in gainful employment shall not be dismissed because of pregnancy, childbirth or marriage", but the concept of gender equality took a long historical process to take root in the hearts of the people. More than half of the children aged 65,438+0 ~ 2 in Nordic countries enter nursery schools, which is also incompatible with the concept of intimate parenting in the East. It should be said that social policies are rooted in the soil of history and culture and cannot be easily copied.
Why is America special?
There is no special fertility support policy in the United States, and its total fertility rate is still at the level of 1.7~ 1.8, which stands out among the major developed economies. This has a lot to do with the transnational immigrants accepted by the United States.
The United States has always been the largest destination country for transnational immigrants. By 2020, there will be 5 1 10,000 immigrants in the United States. Although the fertility rate of European whites has been low, the fertility rate of ethnic minorities is still high, which makes the United States maintain a high fertility level as a whole.
However, immigration has greatly changed the racial structure of the United States. The US Census Bureau predicts that in the racial structure of the American population in the mid-20th century, the proportion of whites in the total American population will drop from the current 66% to 46%, and ethnic minorities will rise from 40% to 54%. Among them, Hispanics have the fastest growth and will reach 29% of the total population. This may pose a great challenge to the social, political and cultural stability of the United States and aggravate social division. Because of this, many countries have adopted a cautious attitude towards immigration.