It is often said in the media that oil will be exhausted in another 40 years and natural gas will be exhausted in 60 years. In fact, oil and gas exploitation may not lead to the ultimate exhaustion of resources. The above remarks obviously do not understand the meaning of "reserve-production ratio".
The "reserve-production ratio" used in fossil fuel statistics refers to the ratio of the remaining recoverable reserves at the end of a certain area (such as a country or region) to the current year's output. In other words, how many years can the existing remaining recoverable reserves be mined under the condition of constant output? This concept is often mistaken for the evidence of oil and gas exhaustion theory, but in fact, the numerator (remaining recoverable reserves) and denominator (current production) of the reserve-production ratio are constantly changing. For example, in 2003, the oil reserve-production ratio increased from 4 1 year to 54.2 years from 20 1 1 year. These data can be found in the statistics of BP.
Can be found in the World Energy Review.
Underground oil and gas resources are not a constant, but constantly changing with people's understanding and technological progress. Oil and gas resources form such a chain in the process of production and consumption: resources → recoverable reserves → production → consumption, and the former constantly provides quantity for the latter. Oil and gas generation has a history of hundreds of millions of years. If 1854 Polish pharmacist ignaz? As the beginning of modern petroleum industry, Lucasewitz's oil mine in Popoka, near Crosno, Poland, was only mined for 160 years. Although it has been widely developed, it will not be exhausted in a short time.
In today's world, although the recoverable reserves and output of oil and gas continue to increase, the demand growth is stronger, and the oil and gas supply is difficult to support economic growth, which shows that the supply of oil is in short supply, which is manifested in the continuous decrease of crude oil in primary energy consumption. At the same time, the change of international geopolitical situation affects oil and gas supply. Therefore, in order to ensure the supply of oil and gas without being restricted by foreign oil and gas, countries all over the world gradually turn their attention to the conventional oil and gas resources and unconventional oil and gas resources in the deep sea and ocean, and become the source of exploiting reserves.
In order to obtain more oil and gas resources, oil and gas field exploration is developing to the deep part of the earth. At present, 75 industrial oil and gas reservoirs with a buried depth of more than 5,000 meters have been discovered in 2 1 basin in the world. China Yuanba gas field has become the largest marine gas field, with a maximum buried depth of about 6,500m. Lula oilfield in Brazil is the largest oilfield discovered in the western hemisphere in the past 30 years, which is located 2000 meters underwater and 5000 meters below salt sandstone. At the beginning of 20 13, about 500 jack-up platforms and 250 semi-submersible platforms were working at sea.
Before renewable energy can not replace fossil fuels, unconventional oil and gas exploration and development has become an inevitable trend of global oil industry development. According to the definition of International Energy Agency (IEA), unconventional oil and gas can be divided into two categories: one is oil and gas extracted from underground, including oil sands, shale oil, tight oil and other unconventional oil, and the other is unconventional natural gas such as tight gas, coalbed methane, shale gas and natural gas hydrate. One is synthetic fuel, including coal to oil, natural gas to oil and biomass to oil.
Today, in the Asapascal oil sands mine in Canada, giant trucks with a load of 400 tons transport the oil sands to the processing plant tens of thousands of times a day; In Fushun, China, hundreds of shale oil distillation tanks stand tall; Brazil has the largest oil shale retort in the world, which retorts 6,200 tons of oil shale every day. Venezuela is looking for overweight crude oil in the Orinoco River area, which makes the remaining recoverable reserves of oil surpass Saudi Arabia and rank first in the world. The highest output of coal-to-oil in the world is China Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region; Thousands of derricks are erected in the United States to exploit shale gas; Biomass energy technology is also constantly breaking through, and biomass oil production is expected to enter industrialization in the future. All these show that people are using unconventional means to obtain oil and natural gas.
Therefore, it is impossible to estimate the exact value of underground oil and gas resources for how many years.
I hope it helps you!