1, the cash flow of enterprises is tight, and the risk of capital chain breakage is high. 2
2. The supply chain is incomplete, and the upstream supply of some industries is in short supply.
3. Enterprises increase the cost of prevention and control, and capital expenditure rises.
4. The circulation of personnel is not smooth, and the phenomenon of "unable to get out" and "unable to get in" exists.
(2) Differentiated development of demand side, and new consumption habits are gradually formed.
1, catering, cultural tourism and other cluster industries have fallen to freezing point, which makes it difficult for such industries to resume work.
2. Online demand has become a new format, which will have an impact on physical stores. three
3, intelligent demand arises at the historic moment, or become a new economic growth point.
Second, the financial industry and real estate industry help the service industry.
Three. Policy Suggestions-Restructuring the Industrial Structure with Crisis.
(1) Continue to promote the construction of smart cities and promote the grid management of Chengdu.
(2) Supply side-classified implementation of industrial policies and promotion of one line and one policy.
1. Stabilize the traditional service industry and provide it with policy guarantee.
2. Actively promote emerging industries and promote the upgrading of innovative services. five
(C) Demand side-expanding domestic demand.
1, boosting consumer confidence.
2. Actively promote the construction of new infrastructure and expand domestic demand.
Abstract: With the gradual stabilization of the "COVID-19" epidemic, the process of enterprises' resumption of work and its possible impact on production and operation have become the focus of government and market attention. At the same time, the tertiary industry contributed a lot to the national economy and was greatly affected by the epidemic. Therefore, paying attention to the problems existing in the resumption of production of the tertiary industry under the epidemic situation will help policy makers to prescribe the right medicine and boost economic development.
First, the problems existing in the resumption of production of the tertiary industry under the epidemic situation.
The tertiary industry mainly includes transportation, express delivery, warehousing, wholesale and retail, restaurants and hotels, tourism, real estate, TMT (science, technology, media and communication), and finance. The author combines epidemic situation, industrial technology content and economic driving potential to distinguish industrial clusters. See figure 1 for the characteristics of tertiary industry. The problems in the industries that resumed production under the epidemic situation are * * *, but the coping strategies should be combined with the characteristics of the industries. The author analyzes it from the perspectives of supply and demand.
Figure 1 characteristics of tertiary industry
Source: According to the demand simulation data, the bubble size represents the economic driving potential.
(a) The supply side is struggling and making slow progress.
The supplier of this paper mainly refers to the service provider of the tertiary industry, and the participants include enterprises and employees. Enterprises mainly face two major shocks. On the one hand, the original business suffered a huge impact in the short term, mainly manifested in cash flow shortage and shrinking demand. On the other hand, enterprises have no experience in prevention and control, and the prevention and control situation is grim and the cost is high. Enterprise employees mainly face problems such as poor circulation and declining personal income quality. Generally speaking, the supply side mainly faces the following four problems:
1, the cash flow of enterprises is tight, and the risk of capital chain breakage is high.
After returning to work, most of the cash flow is tight, but it is mainly concentrated in industries that are greatly affected by the epidemic, such as restaurants, hotels and offline shopping malls. According to external data [1], at present, about 5.5% of SMEs' capital chain has been broken, and about 20.3% of SMEs' cash flow can maintain their basic expenses for 1-3 months, for example, the speed of capital withdrawal is not as fast as that of operating cash flow and capital cash flow.
2. The supply chain is incomplete, and the upstream supply of some industries is in short supply.
Some enterprises in the tertiary industry have the ability to organize the resumption of work, such as offline shopping malls and catering industries. Offline shopping malls may be idling due to problems such as untimely logistics or insufficient upstream supply capacity, which is equivalent to semi-shutdown, and the catering industry is similar.
3. Enterprises increase the cost of prevention and control, and capital expenditure rises.
After the resumption of work, the government did not uniformly provide protective equipment such as masks and alcohol disinfectants, so all enterprises will increase the cost of epidemic prevention. At the same time, fixed costs such as rent and personnel costs have been delayed, but the total amount has remained basically unchanged.
4. The circulation of personnel is not smooth, and the phenomenon of "unable to get out" and "unable to get in" exists.
On the one hand, due to different epidemics and different prevention and control efforts, some key employees can't get out of their areas and return to their jobs; On the other hand, some areas have strict control over foreign personnel, do not recognize the health codes of other areas, do not allow people from other areas to enter or need to be quarantined again 14 days, resulting in the inability of staff to enter.
(2) Demand-side differentiated development, and new consumption habits gradually formed.
During the epidemic period, the demand for terminal consumption diverged, mainly manifested in the transformation from offline to online, and the demand for clustered industries fell to freezing point, so the demand for intelligence came into being.
1, catering, cultural tourism and other cluster industries have fallen to freezing point, which makes it difficult for such industries to resume work.
At present, consumers have a certain degree of fear and anxiety about the epidemic. With the mass consumption of catering, cultural tourism and hotels, the consumer confidence index has declined, which has led some restaurants or movies that have resumed work to fall into a state of being unable to resume work.
2. Online demand has become a new format, which will have an impact on physical stores.
After returning to work, the frequency of end consumers going out to shop has been declining, but at the same time, many consumers choose to stay at home, place orders online, deliver goods to their homes and other services to promote the development of online business, while enterprises that cannot meet this demand will further decline.
3, intelligent demand arises at the historic moment, or become a new economic growth point.
After returning to work, end consumers prefer "smart+"consumption, and platform economy, online economy and home economy have emerged one after another. Such demand may become a new economic growth point.
Second, the financial industry and real estate industry help the service industry.
When the epidemic struck, finance and real estate, as two industries with large total assets, helped the economic development in terms of credit and rent reduction. Among them, the financial industry provides cash support for enterprises through targeted interest rate cuts and credit granting, and the real estate industry reduces the financial burden for enterprises by exempting the rent of its own commercial real estate. The government can further cooperate with enterprises and continue to help enterprises in difficulty. See table 1 for the main enterprises and methods:
Under the "COVID-19", both prevention and control and economy should be paid equal attention. It is suggested that the government promote the development and upgrading of the tertiary industry from the perspectives of information construction, supply side and demand side. First, information construction is led by the government, promoting grid management and smart cities; Second, the supply side pays attention to how enterprises survive, innovate and transform, and integrate new formats; Third, the demand side pays attention to how to stimulate the suppressed and frozen consumer demand and how to expand the new consumption that has been promoted, mainly from the following aspects:
(1) Continue to promote the construction of smart cities and the grid management of Chengdu.
In this epidemic, grid management, big data and other government information means have played a prominent role. Promoting urban grid management will help speed up information circulation, further promote the development of communication industry and form stable operation and maintenance income.
Integrate the network management systems of comprehensive management, social security, food and medicine, civil affairs, fire protection and administrative law enforcement into a social governance "network". After the formation of the network, the grid administrator's recruitment, training, management and other operations will generate continuous income. According to the operation and maintenance income of 6 million yuan/year [1] in each district and county (about 10 employees), Chengdu will reduce costs through technologies such as the Internet of Things and big data in the future. Grid management itself will create a larger profit scale and promote the further development of the tertiary industry.