According to the latest polysilicon price released by Silicon Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the domestic single crystal replenishment price range this week is 288,000 yuan/ton to 300,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 29 1.600 yuan/ton, and the average weekly price is up 1.85%. The price range of single crystal dense material is 286,000 yuan/ton-298,000 yuan/ton, with the average transaction price of 289,600 yuan/ton, and the average weekly price increased by 1.9%.
The price increase of silicon materials continuously transmits pressure to the downstream, which drives the price increase of the entire photovoltaic industry chain such as silicon wafers and components. The skyrocketing price of photovoltaic modules has directly affected the investment and construction progress of photovoltaic projects.
"The component price exceeds 2 yuan/watt. There is no possibility of short-term decline in the trend, and the pressure is too great. " On July 7, the investment director of a large state-owned new energy investment enterprise told the Securities Daily reporter that due to the recent rising price of silicon materials, since the second quarter, the construction of many photovoltaic power plants in the industry has lagged behind or even suspended, and everyone is waiting for the component prices to fall before returning to work.
Under the goal of "double carbon", the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation is increasing. However, many people in the industry said in an interview with the Securities Daily that if the imbalance of all links in the photovoltaic industry chain continues to increase, the construction speed of terminal photovoltaic power plants may be affected.
The performance of related companies increased greatly in the first half of the year.
"At present, the prices of various silicon materials have reached the highest price in history." Qu Fang, an investment consultant of Wanlian Securities, told the Securities Daily reporter that the current increase in the price of silicon materials is mainly caused by the suspension of production by supply enterprises. In the third quarter, some enterprises still have plans to stop production and reduce production, which will support the continued high price of silicon materials.
Faced with strong market demand, manufacturers of silicon wafers, batteries and photovoltaic modules have expanded their production, but the output growth of silicon materials is relatively slow. Because the output expansion at the end of silicon wafer far exceeds that of silicon material, the construction period of silicon material project is long, which leads to the continuous high price of silicon material.
According to the statistics of Silicon Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in the first quarter of this year, the domestic silicon output was 6.5438+0.59 million tons, up 28% year-on-year. However, the domestic output of silicon wafers, batteries and photovoltaic modules increased by 42%, 37% and 465,438+0% respectively, which was significantly higher than that of silicon materials, resulting in tight supply of silicon materials.
The high price of silicon is related to the short supply in the market. In this context, many enterprises are actively expanding production.
GCL 202 1 year polysilicon output is about 104500 tons. This year, the company put into production new projects in Xuzhou, Leshan and Baotou. It is estimated that by the end of this year, the production capacity of all silicon materials will reach 360,000 tons.
TCL Technology also announced that it will use GCL technology to lay out more than 654.38 million tons of granular silicon.
On June 23rd, CNC also announced that Hongyuan New Materials, a wholly-owned subsidiary, plans to build a 40GW single crystal silicon pulling and related supporting production project in the new planning area of Baotou Equipment Manufacturing Industrial Park, with a planned total investment of about 65.438+0.48 billion yuan.
Some people from photovoltaic power plant development enterprises also told the Securities Daily that the production capacity and output growth of upstream silicon materials could not meet the market demand in the middle and lower reaches, and the export volume of superimposed products in the middle and lower reaches increased significantly, resulting in a staged shortage of silicon materials, which led to a sharp increase in the price of silicon materials.
Under the situation that the short-term production capacity of silicon materials cannot be released and the demand exceeds the supply, the performance of related listed companies has increased significantly in the first half of the year.
On the evening of July 8, Daquan Energy announced that the net profit returned to the mother in the first half of 2022 is expected to be 9.4 billion yuan to 9.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 335.03% to 344.28%. The reason for the huge increase in profits is that the photovoltaic market continues to grow this year, and high-purity polysilicon is still one of the scarcest links in the whole industrial chain, so the market price of polysilicon continues to rise. In addition, the company's Phase III B project reached production at the beginning of the year, and the release of new production capacity led to an increase of about 80% in sales in the first half of the year. Thanks to the increase in silicon wafer sales and profits, the company's profitability continued to improve, and its performance increased significantly during the reporting period.
Similarly, thanks to the rising business volume and price of silicon materials, the proportion of large-size products in battery chip business has increased, and the performance of Tongwei, the king of silicon materials, has become more eye-catching. The company expects the net profit returned to the mother in the first half of the year to be 654.38+02 billion yuan to 654.38+025 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 304.62% to 3265.438+0.48%. Only half a year's net profit has exceeded last year's net profit (8.208 billion yuan), far exceeding market expectations.
Qunyi Securities analysts said that although more silicon production capacity was released in the second half of the year, the market demand was high. In July, some production capacity will be shut down for maintenance, and new downstream production capacity will be stocked. It is expected that the silicon price boom will continue.
PV module suppliers often default.
A number of companies said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that the price increase of silicon materials this year was expected, but the price of silicon materials stood at a high level of 300,000 yuan/ton, which still made many middle and lower reaches enterprises say that they were "very hurt".
The profits of silicon wafer and component enterprises are not high compared with those of silicon material enterprises. However, with the rising price of upstream silicon materials, downstream enterprises such as silicon wafers, batteries and components have also begun to join the price increase team.
The investment director of the above-mentioned new energy investment enterprises said that 60% of the profits of the entire industrial chain have been taken away by silicon enterprises, and the profit margins of downstream investors such as battery chips, components and terminal power stations are very limited. Although the silicon material production capacity will be greatly improved in the fourth quarter, the upstream silicon material enterprises still have strong bargaining power, and it is doubtful whether the component price can be lowered.
The above-mentioned photovoltaic power plant development enterprises also mentioned that the sharp rise in the price of silicon materials has led to an increase in the cost of production enterprises in the middle and lower reaches, a decrease in the operating rate, and frequent defaults and breaches of contracts by photovoltaic module suppliers. I thought that the price increase of components was just a temporary hype, but I came back two weeks later. I didn't expect the increase to be wave after wave. Even if the contract is signed and the advance payment is paid, the parts manufacturers or distributors will go back on their words and renegotiate the price, resulting in many projects being stagnant because they can't get the parts.
It is worth mentioning that under the goal of "double carbon", accelerating the construction of photovoltaic power plants is the general trend. According to the data of the National Energy Administration, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics from June to May this year was 23.7 1GW, a year-on-year increase of 139.3%. With the rapid growth of installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation, the demand for downstream photovoltaic modules is strong, and the high price of upstream products will lead to the imbalance of photovoltaic industry chain.
"When the component price rises to 1.9 yuan/watt, it has reached the critical point of the company's investment decision. At this time, the enthusiasm of photovoltaic power plants will be greatly reduced. When the component price rose above 2 yuan/watt, most enterprises in the industry fully felt the pressure and began to struggle whether to start construction on schedule. The progress of the project construction at the beginning of the year was greatly affected. " The investment director of the above-mentioned new energy investment enterprise said, "If the investment income is lower than the minimum threshold, the enterprise is likely to slow down the pace of construction and choose the opportunity to restart, because the economic benefits of the project should be considered."
Many people in the industry interviewed by the Securities Daily believe that the imbalance of the photovoltaic industry chain has intensified, which has affected the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry on the one hand and seriously restricted the construction progress of photovoltaic development on the other.