Later, it was described that the Shanghai Housing Authority held an emergency meeting overnight and formulated a strict new policy to regulate the property market, such as raising the price of new houses, preventing intermediaries and developers from jointly manipulating prices, and allowing a family to subscribe for only one house.
Not long after, the Housing Authority quickly came out to refute rumors, saying that we did not formulate new policies, but only standardized them. However, these routines have long been familiar to everyone, and the more active they are, the more real they are. Sure enough, the next day, eight departments jointly formulated a new policy for the Shanghai property market.
If nothing else, Shanghai will have to be praised for the speed of this policy. It's really "Shanghai style". Let's take a look at what the New Deal has said (pick the core point):
1, increase land supply;
2. Tilt to houseless households;
3. Differentiated credit;
4. Increase taxes and fees for trading links.
First, increase land supply. According to shell data, Shanghai's housing inventory is obviously insufficient. Shanghai's new house inventory destocking cycle is less than 9 months, and the second-hand house inventory is only about 33,000 sets. The relationship between supply and demand has undergone substantial changes.
The urgent task is, of course, to ease the pressure and increase the local housing supply. The most important thing in building a house is land. Shanghai is really moving quickly, and it has been made clear that five new cities, Nanhui, Songjiang, Jiading, Qingpu and Fengxian, will have new land supply.
The second point is to tilt towards households without housing. There is a rumor on the internet that a doctor in Shanghai told the relevant departments that he was in pain after repeatedly shaking the number. This is the pain point of many new Shanghainese, and the relevant departments have obviously heard their voices and made a decision to give priority to these people in the New Deal.
However, note that the New Deal is not as circulated on the Internet before. A family is only allowed to subscribe for one house at a time. It only optimizes the lottery system and defines the priority families without housing, but ultimately increases the probability of winning the lottery for this group of people. Whether there will be further adjustments in the future depends on the situation.
Third, differentiated credit. Shanghai is a place with an inch of land and gold, and a house is tens of millions. It is almost impossible to expect an ordinary family to buy a house in full. Therefore, mortgage is particularly important in the process of buying a house.
The New Deal requires a comprehensive review and supervision of loans, including but not limited to the qualification for purchasing houses, the source of down payment, and the debt capacity. If any link fails to meet the conditions, it will be impossible to obtain loans. If a buyer is stuck in the loan after completing all other links, it will be all in vain. To put it bluntly, in the new policy of Shanghai property market, starting with loans is definitely the most lethal.
Fourth, increase taxes and fees for trading links. This is a new regulation aimed at the extremely hot second-hand housing market, which will extend the VAT tax exemption period of the original house for sale from 2 years to 5 years, and the transaction cost of the second-hand housing market will increase substantially.
Who will bear the increased transaction costs? On the surface, it is a seller, but in fact the landlord is definitely unwilling, so the landlord either doesn't sell it first or passes it on to the buyer. When the house price is so high, the value-added tax must be a large sum of money, which will inevitably eliminate some houses and property buyers. It is hard to say what kind of state the second-hand housing market in Shanghai will present in the future.
Some people may ask, Shanghai reacts so quickly, will house prices fall after the New Deal?
In fact, we can refer to the situation in Shenzhen. A large part of the New Deal formulated by Shanghai this time refers to the New Deal of Shenzhen property market, and both of them are rare megacities in China, and many situations are similar, such as high economic prosperity and large population. So has the house price dropped after the New Deal in Shenzhen property market?
Not really! I'm afraid Shanghai will also let everyone down. It is unlikely that house prices will fall. The biggest possibility is that the rate of rising house prices may slow down, and the property market is not as hot as before. As for the reasons, simply say two points:
First, the supply is insufficient.
There is a saying in Keynesian economics that demand exceeds supply and commodity prices rise. The house is also a commodity, but in China, it is endowed with more attributes other than commodities, and naturally it cannot escape this rule.
As mentioned above, the existing inventory of new houses in Shanghai is less than 9 months, and the inventory of second-hand houses is only about 33 thousand sets. At present, Shanghai has a population of more than 24 million and the number of houses is about 7.8 million, which means that the overall supply cannot meet the demand, and there is still a lot of room for expansion of housing demand in Shanghai.
Second, the demand is strong.
2065438+March 2006, when the national property market was the hottest, Shanghai formulated the strictest control policy, requiring non-Shanghai hukou to pay social security for five years before buying a house, which led to many people losing their qualification to buy a house overnight. In the following years, no matter how crazy the outside world was, the Shanghai property market performed fairly well.
In recent years, Shanghai housing prices have been in a rational and moderate upward trend. However, due to the large base, housing prices are not low now, and Shanghai is still integrating with new people. Housing demand will be in short supply for a long time, and house prices are likely to continue to rise in the future. Now that the five-year deadline has arrived, the buyers who are waiting hard will inevitably use it to buy a house in a short time after meeting the purchase conditions.
In any case, it is tantamount to "wishful thinking" to expect the introduction of new policies to lower housing prices in Shanghai. In the future, housing prices in Shanghai will rise slowly and orderly under effective monitoring.
In recent years, Shanghai has made outstanding achievements in economy, science and technology, finance and foreign trade. The annual increase in housing prices is more of another manifestation recognized by the people of the whole country, but Shanghai obviously does not need to rely on the real estate economy to enhance its status.
The Shanghai property market is slightly abnormal, and the relevant departments immediately formulate new policies to suppress this phenomenon. The first shot of 202 1 property market regulation started in Shanghai, which set a very good example in speed and control. Other cities may wish to refer to it. Even such an excellent Shanghai can't help watering the property market to put out the fire. What outstanding ability do you have to set off a storm? Hurry up and consciously douse the burning cause!