In the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China Urban Rail Transit Association proposed four major development points of domestic urban rail transit to promote the planning and development of smart cities. At the same time, the Draft Outline of the Tenth Five-Year Plan and Long-term Goals in 2035 also proposes that the mileage of urban rail transit in China will increase by 3,000 kilometers during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, and the cumulative passenger traffic is expected to exceed 1000 billion passengers during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, and the cumulative investment is expected to reach 18 1888 billion yuan.
Major listed companies in the industry: China Railway (60 1390), China Railway Construction (0186), Tunnels (600820), Guangdong Hydropower (002060), Urban Construction Design (HK.0 1599).
The core data of this paper: the operating mileage of urban rail transit, the passenger volume of urban rail transit, the investment of urban rail transit, and the prediction of urban rail transit related data during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period.
Review on the Development of the 13th Five-Year Plan
—— The operating mileage ranks first in the world, and the north has become the top three cities in the world.
During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the mileage of urban rail transit in China has increased steadily, and China has become the first in the world, far surpassing developed countries such as Germany, Russia and the United States. By the end of 2020, 40 cities across the country (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) have opened urban rail transit operations, with operating lines reaching 7969.7 kilometers.
Among them, Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Nanjing rank among the top cities in the global urban rail transit operating mileage list in 2020 10, Shanghai, Beijing and Chengdu rank among the top three cities in the world, and the operating mileage of Shanghai's urban rail transit is even about twice that of new york.
-The scale of subway construction has been accelerated, and other rail transit systems have developed in a coordinated and effective manner.
During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China is accelerating the coordinated and effective development of other rail transit systems while accelerating the construction of subways. According to the union standard Urban Rail Transit Classification (T/CAMET0000 1-2020), urban rail transit systems are classified into 10. By the end of 2020, China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) has opened eight kinds of urban rail transit, including subway, light rail, straddle monorail, urban express rail, tram, maglev, self-guided rail system and electronic guided rubber tire system. Among them, the subway operation line is 6280.8 kilometers long, accounting for 78.82%.
—— Cumulative passenger traffic increased by 8 1.7% compared with the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.
In terms of passenger traffic, from 20 16 to 20 19, the average annual growth rate of urban rail transit in China was above 12%. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the passenger volume of urban rail transit in China dropped sharply. In the first quarter of 2020, some industries stopped production, and the passenger volume of China urban rail transit dropped sharply. However, with the resumption of work and production in the later period, the passenger volume of urban rail transit in China has rebounded rapidly and maintained a growth trend, and by the end of 2020, it is basically close to the passenger volume level of 20 19. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the cumulative passenger traffic of urban rail transit in China reached 95.94 billion passengers, an increase of 8 1.7% over the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period.
-PPP projects have helped the total investment in the 13 th Five-Year Plan to more than double.
The rapid development of urban rail transit in China during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period also benefited from innovative PPP projects. With the help of PPP projects, the total investment in urban rail transit construction in China during the 13th Five-Year Plan period was 2,627.87 billion yuan, more than double the total investment of 654.38+0.2289 billion yuan during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China's urban rail transit completed an annual construction investment of 525.57 billion yuan.
Interpretation of the development priorities of the tenth five-year plan: four development priorities
At present, China Urban Rail Transit Association has carried out the research on the talent development strategy of China urban rail transit and the development ideas of the "Tenth Five-Year Plan", and put forward several major ideas and suggestions, including four development points: scientific planning; Develop regional express railways and promote multi-network integration; Continue to promote the construction of smart city track; Ensure the sustainable development of urban planning, transportation and finance.
-Twelve science projects
China Urban Rail Transit Association put forward the following key points of scientific planning and development: technical intelligence, equipment autonomy, network functionalization, sustainable development, industry standardization, regional differentiation, system diversification, traffic coordination, operation precision, station-city integration, green construction and traffic, and market internationalization.
-Developing urban express rail and promoting multi-network integration: four key points.
In addition, China Urban Rail Transit Association proposed to develop regional express rail, promote multi-network integration, including multi-network integration, give full play to the role of urban planning owners, lay a solid foundation for development and effectively control costs.
—— Continue to promote the construction of smart urban rail: six major measures
At the same time, China Urban Rail Transit Association proposed to continuously promote the construction of smart urban rail, including six major measures: overall planning and step-by-step implementation; Network layout, overall improvement; Self-control, innovation and development; Advanced and reliable, economical and applicable; Demonstration and guidance, and orderly advancement; Industry-University-Research uses coordinated development.
-Ensuring the sustainable development of urban planning, transportation and finance: four directions
Finally, China Urban Rail Transit Association put forward many measures to ensure the sustainable development of urban planning and transportation finance, including scientific and reasonable planning and construction; Form a pattern that the government, enterprises and society share the cost of rail transit reasonably; Encourage business expansion and feedback operations with business income; Strengthen regional cooperation and reduce maintenance costs.
Interpretation and Prediction of the Development Goals in the Tenth Five-Year Plan
-During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, 3,000 kilometers of mileage was added, and the cumulative passenger traffic is expected to exceed 1000 billion passengers.
According to the draft outline of the Tenth Five-Year Plan and the long-term goal in 2035, during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, China will increase the operating mileage of urban rail transit by 3,000 kilometers. It can be estimated that by the end of 2025, the operating mileage of urban rail transit in China is expected to exceed 1 1,000 kilometers (the operating mileage of urban rail transit in China will be 7,679.7 kilometers in 2020).
At the same time, combined with the relevant data of the accumulated investment and passenger traffic of urban rail transit during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan and the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, considering the impact of the epidemic in 2020, it is estimated that the accumulated investment of urban rail transit in China is expected to reach 18 188 billion yuan during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, and the accumulated passenger traffic is expected to reach129.2 billion yuan.
Note: 1) Logical analysis of forecast during the 14th Five-Year Plan: ① The new operating mileage during the 14th Five-Year Plan comes from the draft outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the long-term goal in 2035; (2) Accumulated investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period = new operating mileage during the 14th Five-Year Plan period * (average investment per new operating mileage during the 12th Five-Year Plan period and the 13th Five-Year Plan period); ③ Cumulative passenger traffic during the 14th Five-Year Plan period = Cumulative passenger traffic during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (excluding epidemic situation)+(average passenger traffic per new operating mileage during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (excluding epidemic situation) * new operating mileage during the 14th Five-Year Plan period); ④ Operating mileage at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan = new operating mileage during the 14th Five-Year Plan period+operating mileage at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period.
2)② Average investment per new operating mileage during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan and the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan = accumulated investment in this period/new operating mileage in this period; Average passenger traffic per new operating mileage during the 13th Five-Year Plan period = (cumulative passenger traffic during the 13th Five-Year Plan period-cumulative passenger traffic during the 12th Five-Year Plan period)/new operating mileage during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.
3) Description of data source: ① The newly-increased operating mileage, final operating mileage, accumulated investment and accumulated passenger traffic during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan and the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan are all from China Urban Rail Transit Association; (2) All data during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period are forward-looking data.
-Smart city planning targets cover ten directions.
In addition, in March, 2020, China Urban Rail Transit Association issued "China Urban Rail Transit Smart City Planning and Development Outline", which set the development goals of China smart city planning in 2025 and 2035, covering smart passenger service, intelligent transportation organization, intelligent energy system, intelligent train operation, intelligent technical equipment, intelligent infrastructure, intelligent operation and maintenance safety, intelligent network management, cloud and big data platform for urban planning and China smart city planning technical standard system. Details are as follows:
—— The above data comes from the Analysis Report on Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning of China Urban Rail Transit Industry by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.