"In the past two or three years, China's housing prices will generally maintain a high consolidation trend, and the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing will decline 10%~ 12%."
Today (September 7th), the Blue Book of Real Estate: China Real Estate Development ReportNo. 17 (2020) (hereinafter referred to as "Blue Book") jointly issued by the Institute of Ecological Civilization of China Academy of Social Sciences and Social Science Literature Publishing House pointed out that except for a few third-and fourth-tier cities, individual lots and individual buildings, the overall price rise and fall is a small probability event; The epidemic situation in COVID-19 has a short-term impact on the housing fair in 2020, but it has little impact on the overall trend of housing prices.
"The impact of the epidemic has brought us great difficulties in forecasting the real estate market. This is a sudden thing. It is impossible to follow the previous inertial thinking and must be considered comprehensively. " Wang, director of the theoretical research office of the Institute of Ecological Civilization of China Academy of Social Sciences and editor-in-chief of the Blue Book, told the reporter of National Business Daily.
In the past two or three years, house prices have been consolidating at a high level.
According to the Blue Book, comprehensive analysis of various related factors shows that the overall housing prices in China will maintain a high consolidation trend in the past two or three years. It is predicted that when the house price fluctuates between plus and minus 5 percentage points in 2020, the housing market should be regarded as generally stable. There are three reasons to judge the high consolidation of housing prices.
First, it is extremely unlikely that house prices will plummet. China's housing market demand is still strong, and the superposition effect of the increasing demand for basic housing for urban population, the demand for improved housing for citizens and the demand for renovation and upgrading of dilapidated houses continues. The overall situation that housing supply cannot meet housing demand cannot be fundamentally improved in the short term. This is the fundamental reason why the average transaction price of commercial housing in China has increased by 7.6% in recent three years, despite the strictest real estate regulation in history.
Second, there is a lack of motivation to support soaring housing prices. Judging from the reality, China's housing prices have been at a high level, and there will be a breathing period after the skyrocketing. The sustained and rapid rise is both weak and will face higher market risks. Judging from the central government's decision-making will, the determination of the state to control the sharp rise in housing prices in the near future will not change, and the policy direction of tightening real estate regulation will not change. With the full implementation of the housing system with multi-agent supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase, the demand pressure on the property market will be alleviated and the skyrocketing housing prices will lose momentum.
Third, guard against the risk of a sharp drop in house prices. Although the inertia of decision-making thinking in China's real estate regulation and control is still strong, the regulation goal has changed from controlling the excessive rise of housing prices and destocking to stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations, indicating that real estate regulation and control policies are developing in a direction that conforms to objective laws.
Commercial housing sales are expected to decline 10%~ 12%.
"In 2020, the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing will decline simultaneously, with the decline range of10% ~12%; The average sales price of commercial housing is about 9250 yuan/square meter, down 0.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate is 7.2 percentage points lower than 20 19. " The Blue Book predicts that the growth rate of real estate construction area may drop significantly in 2020, which is expected to drop from 8.7% in 20 19 to 4.4% in 2020. This may be related to the simultaneous decline of newly started area and completed area, and the faster decline of newly started area.
At the same time, the Blue Book points out that in 2020, the commercial real estate market will face greater impact and greater uncertainty. Only 874 shopping centers will be opened nationwide in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 1 1.4%, the lowest in three years. According to the epidemic situation and the opening situation in previous years, it is estimated that the number of shopping centers actually opened in 2020 will be around 400, the vacancy rate of shopping centers is expected to increase again, and the rental income will also decrease to some extent, which is expected to decrease by 10%~20%.
From the supply side, CB Richard Ellis predicts that about 13% of the new office supply will be delayed, which will reduce the annual new supply to 8.9 million square meters. On the demand side, it is estimated that the annual net absorption of office buildings will reach 3.5 million square meters, which is basically the same as that in 20 19; The national vacancy rate will rise to 25%, while the overall rent will still fall.
In terms of long-term rental apartments, it is expected that there will be a large number of incremental long-term rental apartments in the market in 2020 and beyond. In addition to the construction of some family rental houses, this kind of property will also be equipped with complete supporting facilities such as businesses and schools in the community to meet the various needs of tenants, so that tenants can experience a more quality rental life and play an important role in promoting the construction of China's "rent-and-purchase" housing system. At the same time, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has made it clear that in 2020, it will focus on exploring the operation mechanism of such projects, and it will be the general trend to hand over "collective rental" to professional long-term rental apartment institutions for construction and operation.
The real estate policy faces four major changes.
The Blue Book points out that "housing is not speculation" and "stabilizing housing prices" are still the main lines of the market, and the real estate policy is facing four major changes: first, the housing supply system is transformed from "marketization" to "security"; second, the housing security system is transformed from "shed reform" to "old reform"; third, the rental market system is transformed from "standardized development" to "rental housing"; and fourth, the land market system is transformed from "rental housing".
In 2020, the regulation of housing prices will continue, and the positioning of "housing and not speculating" will not change. The bottom line of real estate regulation and control policy is "three stabilities" (stable land price, stable house price and stable expectation), which will neither stimulate water release nor tighten excessively, but the role of "one city, one policy" may be strengthened.
In 20 19, the investment in residential development accounted for 73.4% of the investment in real estate development, and in 20 19, the residential sales accounted for 87.3% of the commercial housing sales. The Blue Book predicts that the proportion of residential development investment in 2020 may be as high as 74.5%. It can be seen that stabilizing the residential market is to stabilize the real estate market, which is to stabilize the macro economy. The stability of housing market is of great significance to the macro-economic health and security of China.
In addition, the Blue Book also points out that the demand for residential real estate market will remain strong in 2020 due to the good economic growth and considerable population inflow in Greater Bay Area mainland cities in 20 19. Due to the influence of living environment, real estate prices and other factors, it is estimated that the market demand of Guangzhou and Shenzhen will spill over to Foshan, Zhuhai, Huizhou, Dongguan and Zhongshan in 2020, but Zhaoqing and Jiangmen may face fewer opportunities.