Looking back on 2022, the real estate market continued to decline, and many real estate indicators declined significantly. From 1 to 2022 1 1, the national real estate development investment decreased by 9.8%, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 23.3%, and the funds in place of real estate development enterprises decreased by 25.7%. Since the beginning of this year, the prosperity index of real estate development has continued to decline. In June 165438+ 10, the overall sales price of commercial housing continued to decline, and some housing enterprises faced liquidity difficulties in 2022. It should be said that in 2022, China real estate market has been wandering in the cold winter. Both real estate development enterprises and enterprises in all aspects of the real estate industry chain are facing many difficulties. There are many cities with falling house prices, and buyers have a strong wait-and-see mood, which hinders the virtuous circle of the real estate market.
Corresponding to the continuous downward trend of the market, real estate control policies aimed at promoting the market to stabilize and rebound are constantly introduced. On February 26th, 65438, Dongguan announced to further optimize the real estate control policy, lift the purchase restriction and strengthen the sales restriction. It can be seen that the purpose of the policy is to support rigid and improved housing demand, while adhering to the principle of "living without speculation". In fact, since the beginning of this year, many cities have loosened the restrictive policies in the past, and the policies to stabilize the real estate market can be said to be exhausted, including relaxing restrictions on purchases, loans, sales and housing prices, adjusting the housing provident fund policy, introducing incentives such as "one person buying a house to help the whole family", introducing policies to change sheds into house tickets, reducing taxes and fees on housing transfer, and granting housing subsidies.
In view of the late delivery of some real estate development projects, relevant departments and local governments actively promote "guaranteed delivery" to protect the rights and interests of buyers. Going all out to "guarantee the delivery of the building" will help rebuild market confidence. Relevant departments have launched large-scale special loans from policy banks for real estate development projects that have been sold and are difficult to deliver. 1 1 month, the real estate financial policy continued, and the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued "Finance 16". Subsequently, the "three arrows" of credit, bonds and equity financing supported the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. This round of real estate regulation and control is characterized by the joint efforts of both the supply and demand sides, including relaxing restrictive measures on the demand side, lowering down payment and mortgage interest rates, and supporting the expansion of capital sources for real estate development projects and real estate enterprises on the supply side.
The real estate market has experienced rapid development in the past 20 years, and its supporting role for economic growth is very obvious. The adjustment of the real estate market over the past year has taught us profound lessons. In the past, housing prices rose too fast, risks accumulated, and housing supply and demand in some cities were unbalanced. For many property buyers, the investment attribute of housing is more important, the debt ratio of residents has risen too fast, and the proportion of housing in residents' wealth has remained high. At the same time, the industry has also formed a model of high leverage, high debt and high turnover, and housing enterprises have exposed risks in this round of adjustment. Preventing and resolving financial risks in the real estate sector has become an important part of effectively preventing and resolving major economic and financial risks.
We should fully realize that the real estate market needs further development in the future, and there is room to continue to achieve stable and healthy development. Some people think that there will not be too many development opportunities in the real estate market at this stage, and this understanding is one-sided. Real estate has always been a pillar industry of the national economy, with a long chain and wide coverage, which has an important impact on financial stability and is an industry with strong spillover and systemic importance. At the same time, China's urbanization rate still has a lot of room for improvement, and the demand for rigid and improved housing is huge.
In view of the current downward trend of the real estate industry, it is necessary to take greater policy measures to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry. Although the recent intensive policies and measures have gradually taken effect, there is still room for further improvement of relevant regulatory policies. It is necessary to study and introduce new policies and measures to improve the assets and liabilities of housing enterprises and effectively increase housing supply. We also need to study medium and long-term solutions. In-depth study on the relationship between supply and demand, population change and urbanization pattern of the real estate market, including urban agglomeration, urban renewal and re-urbanization, and research to promote the smooth transition of the real estate industry to a new development model and get rid of the "high debt, high leverage and high turnover" model for many years.
We have reason to believe that after a period of deep adjustment, the real estate market is expected to go out of the trough and enter a stage of steady development under the influence of multiple policies and overall positive economic development. (Kang Shu)