Before figuring out whether the current position is the initial stage of the bull market, let's take a look at the position of the market! It took five years for Shanghai Stock Exchange to consolidate from 15 to its present position. There is such a rule in the stock market that there is a seven-year cycle. It means that there is basically a 7-year interval between the end of the last bull market and the next bull market! There is also a proverb, "The seven-year itch of the stock market". Why is there such a statement? 7 years from 2000 to 2007; 07 to 14 is also seven years apart, and this time 14, according to the time, the start time of the bull market should be 14+7 years, that is, 202 1 year is the start year of the bull market! So why do people generally think that this position is the early view of the bull market?
In addition, 2020 is a very special year. COVID-19 has caused the global economic recession, and China is no exception! Western countries seem to be hit harder than China. While western countries are still fighting against epidemic diseases and brain damage in COVID-19, China has taken the lead in breaking through, all walks of life are recovering rapidly, and signs of rebound have begun to appear! In addition, the policy supports the economy more than ever before, and these factors will give birth to a bull market, that is to say, a bull market is coming! The reason for this is the following：
It can be seen that the current performance is indeed the primary stage of the bull market! There is no doubt about it! In the early days of the bull market, buying stocks can be quickly untied even if it is quilt cover! Because this is the primary stage, as long as you have the patience to hold shares, the bull market basically has the opportunity to make a profit! Just look at what kind of stocks are quilt cover, valuable and high-quality companies with themes, even if quilt cover can be quickly untied. The key depends on the value of your quilt stock. Without the support of fundamentals, even if there is a bull market in the future, there will be differentiation! With the improvement of the stock market trading system, this bull market may not be a general increase pattern. Our thinking should be conceptual, and we can't stay in the past bull market thinking. The present of Hong Kong stocks is the future of A shares, and there will be many valuable fairy stocks! In fact, this involves the problem of stock selection. It is a question which plate the bull market starts from!
Generally speaking, the standard to measure the bull market must meet the following points:
The second point is to increase the volume! The start of the bull market needs the cooperation of trading volume. Without enough energy, how can it be difficult for the market to start a bull market? We carefully observe that without the start of a bull market, the performance of trading volume can tell everything. In the near future, the trading volume from the end of June to the beginning of July is the basic feature of the bull market, and it needs to be maintained to promote the bull market! The quantity shows that the market is active and hot money flows in! Without the cooperation of quantity and energy, it is difficult to define the standard of bull market. At the very least, we must maintain the level of 8000- 1 trillion transactions between the two cities, not less than 800 billion transactions! Maintaining this standard for a long time is the primary stage of the bull market!
Recently, Lin Yuan, a private equity tycoon, has repeatedly voiced that all sectors have rising opportunities in the long run. Now 100% is the initial stage of a bull market, and other topics have aroused heated discussion among investors. Some investors think that he is talking nonsense, and some investors think that what he said is quite reasonable, because his main line is consumption and brokerage, which shows that he is confident that the current stock market is a bull market and that the current adjustment is untenable.
First of all, is it a bull market now? This needs to be clarified before we know whether the adjustment of the market will lock people up; Secondly, after the GEM registration system, is there really a problem of not being able to trap people? ; Finally, why is Linyuan so optimistic about the current stock market?
Only by understanding these three points can we understand whether it is right or wrong to trap people in the early stage of the bull market, and whether it is really like the various sectors of the forest park that there are opportunities for growth.
1. Is it really a bull market now? Lin Yuan has been a bull market more than once. Some time ago, he also said that he is currently in the early stage of the bull market with a return of 10. He thinks that 5000 points and 20000 points are not dreams, which means that he is very optimistic that the stock market is now in a bull market. Yesterday, he said again that ups and downs were the characteristics of the early bull market. To stick to it and go in the right direction, the increase of brokerage stocks is far from enough, and we must hold core high-quality assets.
Is it really a bull market now? Lin Yuan doesn't necessarily think so. We should also think about the current situation of the stock market. Since 20 19, the market has been strengthening and the stock market has been rising slowly. After the fundamentals, policies and technical forms have improved, the funds are in line with the characteristics of the bull market. It can be said that there is a high probability that the current stock market is a bull market, and it is not a problem for Lin Yuan to say yes.
Second, after the GEM registration system, can it really be cheat people? In the past, the bull market was untenable, which is understandable. After all, the bull market is an all-round bull market, and now the market style has long changed. Last year and this year, more than 30 listed companies delisted. If investors buy any delisting company, or withdraw their shares after investing, they will be trapped.
This shows that even if the current stock market is in the early stage of the bull market, the risk of the stock market has not decreased at all. It may not matter if you choose the wrong stock, even if the bull market comes. It is necessary to choose the right stocks in the bull market that will not trap people into making money, instead of making money by buying stocks casually in the previous paragraph.
Third, are there any opportunities for brokers and consumer sectors? In the bull market, the index has at least doubled, and the biggest beneficiary in the bull market is the brokerage. Obviously, the increase of brokers is far from enough. There has been a strong rise in the consumer sector, which is a long-term industry and relatively stable. Obviously, the rising cycle will be longer. Moreover, funds like to gather in the consumer sector, and there are naturally many speculative opportunities in the bull market.
This caused the early bull market. As Lin Yuan said, if you are at ease, you will not be trapped in investing in core high-quality assets, instead of encouraging poor performance stocks and problem stocks. Only in this way can you buy the right sectors in the bull market and get a return if you persist.
In short, the initial bull market can't hold people. This is based on whether the stock market is bull market. This is based on buying the right departments and stocks. If you are opportunistic, it will definitely not work. With the landing of the registration system, there are more and more new shares, and the funds behind them are limited. Although the bull market is far from over, it is impossible for all stocks to rise.
Regarding the capital market, the most controversial topic is when the bull market will come and whether it will end, which is precisely the current market situation.
The current market is around 3300. Looking up, the pressure of 3400 is very obvious. A notable feature is that many major shareholders have reduced their holdings in this position, and foreign capital has also flowed out from time to time. In other words, short-term pressure is the view of some funds; For other institutions, there are still many bad singers. For example, there is a view recently that it is still in the early stage of the bull market and can't hold people. Core assets such as brokers are still far from the expected increase.
For many investors, it is natural to like watching the bull market. After all, in the recent market volatility, many investors have obviously been trapped or given up their profits. If it is really the pre-bull market, then this fluctuation is actually nothing. The question is, is this really the beginning of a bull market?
I have said on many occasions that the position of the whole market is not easy to predict. Even a bull market can't be completed in a day, and it needs constant washing before it can continue to rise, because only washing dishes and floating funds can have better upward momentum. Therefore, for investors, in a volatile market, first of all, don't feel that it must be smooth sailing, and there must be twists and turns in the middle.
Secondly, for the stocks of brokers, individuals are not very optimistic. From the perspective of investment logic, the bull market is coming, and brokers are naturally the most beneficial varieties. However, what you need to pay attention to is that this kind of investment logic has already appeared, that is, in the process of rising brokerage stocks, it has actually included the expectations of the bull market. At the same time, the index rose continuously some time ago, mainly due to rumors of merger of brokers. These also responded to the stock price, and the earlier scientific and technological innovation board and registration system were also in the early stage of rising. More importantly, for brokerage stocks, too many retail investors will consider buying. When retail investors consider buying a sector, in fact, the selling pressure is often relatively large, and it is a sector with a certain increase. Pay special attention to this point.
Generally speaking, like investors, I expect the bull market to continue, but while I am optimistic about the market, I must also control my position. The market will not be completed in a day, and there will be twists and turns in the middle; As for brokerage stocks, there is a big increase. If many people are optimistic about the industry, if they just want to participate, then they will participate in a small amount.
-Above, cigar financial dog, be a clean stream in the financial sector, more investment cases and logical thinking, so please pay attention!
At the beginning of the bull market, people can't be trapped, and brokerage stocks still have a chance. I 100% agree with this view! At the beginning of the bull market, as long as the stocks you buy are not particularly bad, it is basically impossible to trap people, unless you are unfortunate enough to buy delisting or other stocks with black swans. If you are trapped in the early stage of a bull market, it is not called a bull market!
Is it the initial stage of a bull market? Whether the current bull market is in the primary stage, I believe this issue is the concern of all investors. According to my understanding, this is the primary stage of the bull market, and the real big bull market has not yet been fully opened. The next wave of market that is about to start may surpass all previous bull markets! Why am I so sure that this is the primary stage of the bull market? I dare say that this is a wave that surpasses any previous bull market!
1, housing speculation, the stock market has become a new fulcrum to stimulate the economy.
The management has always emphasized the principle of not speculating in real estate. The best cycle of the property market has passed, and then the stock market will usher in spring. As the real estate market is no longer used as a means to stimulate the economy, the stock market has become the best fulcrum to start China's economy. Some time ago, the leaders also said that they have never paid so much attention to the capital market. These are all revealing this information. The continuously reformed stock market, GEM registration system and science and technology innovation board are all conditions for providing direct financing for enterprises. In the past, every market reform will usher in a big market, and I believe this time will be no exception.
2. China's economic growth is stable and there are many stimulus measures.
Moody's raised China's economic growth forecast in 2020. Moody's Investors Service, an international rating agency, recently updated its global macro outlook report, raising the economic growth forecast of China this year from 1% to 1.9%, and predicting the economic growth of China next year by about 7%. China's economy has become the leader of the world economy, and China's economy will lead the world out of the quagmire in the future. In addition, China has been continuously opening deleveraging and supply-side reforms in the past few years, and the current state of China's economy is actually very healthy. When the whole world is flooded, only our country is very restrained, so there are still many stimulus measures to be used in the future, including RRR cuts, interest rate cuts and stamp duty. On the other hand, the United States continues to open the US dollar to print money. In the past two days, it has announced that it will allow 2% inflation, which means that the US dollar will continue to release water. These floods of liquidity always need a market to accommodate, so A shares are undoubtedly the best choice.
Therefore, there is no doubt that this is the initial stage of the bull market, and the sign of a full-scale bull market opening is to reduce RRR or cut interest rates. The fastest time is the end of September or 10!
Is there still a chance for the brokerage sector now? Of course there is a chance. Brokers, commonly known as pioneers of bull market, are necessary for bull market. At present, it is confirmed that the market is still in the upswing stage, and the possibility of future brokers is great. On the monthly line of the brokerage sector, Changyang just broke through last month, so the moving averages are all upward. So at present, the medium and long-term opportunities of brokers are relatively certain. Therefore, I totally agree that people can't be trapped in the early stage of the bull market, and brokers can't be trapped.
Although it is still in the primary stage of the bull market, we should also know that the current market is no longer the market that used to eat from the same pot, and the requirements for stock selection will be higher and higher. Under the registration system, the listing speed of stocks is accelerated, the delisting speed is accelerated, and there are more market choices, so the final result is that the strong will remain strong. Without hard-core logic, stocks will be eliminated, and without suitable stocks, bull markets will also lose money!
There are opportunities, and there are many short moves in the shock. As long as it falls, and then sideways for a few days, the demon stocks will rise again. This is the charm of stock funds!
The meaning of "management" is most important. Other people's comments are to cheat investors' trust, and then buy a set for investors who trust themselves.