1, consumption continues to be weak, which has both long-term inhibitory factors and short-term epidemic factors.
In recent years, the long-term restraining factors of consumption have been accumulating: before the outbreak, the growth rate of consumption of Chinese residents has been in the downward channel, and the social zero growth rate has dropped from 1 1 to 20 19, down to 8.0%. Attribution, reflected in economic growth and income growth, is the income gap, real estate crowding out effect and other factors.
After the epidemic, the long-term inhibitory factors accelerated deterioration, limited supply, and controlled consumption scenarios. Since the epidemic, the income gap and real estate extrusion have further deteriorated, and the overlapping epidemic has been repeated, and residents' willingness to save has increased and their propensity to consume has decreased significantly. At the same time, it is also related to limited supply and controlled consumption scenarios. For example, automobile consumption dropped to -7.4% in August, mainly due to the intensified shortage of automobile chips.
2. There are various policies to stimulate consumption, which can be divided into three categories: comprehensive stimulus, structural stimulus and institutional support:
1) Comprehensive stimulus policies: coupons, tax reduction, night economy, stall economy, etc.
Consumer vouchers: After the outbreak, many places in China issued consumer vouchers to stimulate consumption, which were independently implemented by each place. In 2020, the payment amount will exceed 654.38+09 billion yuan, which should be more than 2-3 times, and the policy effect is good.
Tax reduction: including reducing the tax rate of imported consumer goods, reducing and exempting value-added tax and purchase tax, and expanding the amount and scope of tax exemption. Reducing consumption tax can directly stimulate consumption and help attract consumption abroad to return. The data shows that China's duty-free sales increased by 104% in 2020, and the compound average growth continued by 102% in the first half of 2026.
Night show and stall economy: Since 20 19, many places in China have issued policies to encourage the development of night show and stall economy. Logically, they seek increment by expanding the time and space of consumption respectively, but it may be difficult to really improve the consumption ability and willingness of residents. After considering the substitution crowding-out effect and potential costs (electricity consumption, health, etc.). ), their pulling effect on consumption is limited.
2) Structural stimulus policies: automobile consumption, household appliances consumption, service consumption, rural consumption, new consumption, public consumption, etc. >; Automobile consumption: China's automobile consumption accounts for about 10% of the society, which is an important starting point for promoting consumption. Common policies include purchase tax reduction and exemption, cars going to the countryside, relaxing purchase restrictions, and exchanging old ones for new ones. Previously, China has implemented three rounds of stimulus, in which automobile consumption rebounded more in 2009, and the two rounds of stimulus policies of 20 15 and 20 18 were relatively weak, and the downward pressure on the overall economy was still relatively large, with limited boosting effect.
Household appliance consumption: mainly includes three categories: going to the countryside, replacing old appliances with new ones, and saving energy and benefiting the people. The last round of stimulus was mainly implemented in 2009-20 12, and the early effect was good. In 20 10-20 165438, the average sales growth rate of air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines reached 37% and 3 1 respectively. However, 20 12 generally dropped sharply, which should reflect that part of the demand was overdrawn in advance.
Service consumption: the proportion of service consumption in recent years (including catering, tourism, leisure and entertainment, culture and sports, health care for the elderly, etc. ) has been increasing, reaching about 52% in the first half of 20021,which is also the key direction of policy efforts. Before the outbreak, the service consumption policy was more inclined to long-term supply-side structural reform, mostly from the perspective of improving quality and expanding capacity and optimizing service supply; After the epidemic, the policy pays more attention to short-term demand-side stimulus, such as helping the service industry recover through catering and cultural travel coupons.
Rural consumption: since 20 14 years, the median growth rate of rural residents' consumption is about 10%, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than that of urban residents, which has obviously boosted the overall consumption and has great potential for future growth. China's measures to promote rural consumption include stimulating mass consumption (cars and home appliances going to the countryside), improving the circulation system and promoting the development of life service industry.