Precision medicine is a new method of disease prevention and treatment, which takes into account the differences of individual genes, environment and living habits. With the rapid progress of genome sequencing technology and the cross application of bioinformatics and big data science, it is a new medical concept and model developed on the basis of individualized medicine. The focus of precision medicine is not "cure", but "precision". From 2065438 to March 2006, the Ministry of Science and Technology held the first national expert meeting on precision medical strategy, and put forward the precision medical plan of China. The meeting pointed out that by 2030, China will invest 60 billion yuan in precision medical care, including 20 billion yuan from the central government and 40 billion yuan from enterprises and local governments. With the development of economy and the enhancement of residents' health awareness, the demand for high-end, personalized and precise health is growing day by day, and the upgrading of medical consumption will further promote the expansion of the precision medical market.
Compared with individualized medical care, precision medical care pays more attention to the deep characteristics of "disease" and the high accuracy of "medicine"; It is a high-level medical technology formed on the basis of a deep understanding of people, diseases and medicines. From different levels, precision medicine has unique advantages.
First, the precision medical industry chain
The industrial chain of precision medicine includes upstream instruments and equipment, consumables, pharmaceutical synthetic materials and reagents, midstream testing service providers and downstream application fields. At present, the development time, technical maturity and barriers of different links are slightly different, so they also present different investment opportunities.
Panorama of precision medical industry chain
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Source: Prepared by China Commercial Industry Research Institute.
1, upstream of industrial chain: diagnostic instruments and reagents
Diagnosis is the core foundation of precision medicine, and molecular diagnosis is the core supporting technology. Molecular diagnosis includes many ways, among which polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technology is relatively mature, and Qualcomm quantitative gene sequencing is rich in information, which is the fastest developing sub-field at present and the future direction. The upstream of the gene sequencer industry is basically in an oligopoly state, and 80% of the income is monopolized by giants. At present, the global sequencing companies mainly include Illumina, Roche, Life Science and Technology, BGI and berry and kang, among which the top three companies account for more than 99% of the market.
In recent years, the market of gene sequencer has developed rapidly. Relevant data show that the global market size of gene sequencer has increased from $2 billion in 20 13 to $3.90 billion in 20 18, with a year-on-year increase of 18%. It is predicted that in 2020, the global market size of gene sequencer will exceed $5 billion.
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Source: Prepared by China Commercial Industry Research Institute.
2. The middle reaches of the industrial chain: the field of sequencing services is growing rapidly.
The middle reaches of the precision medical industry chain are sequencing services and data analysis services, with the fastest growth rate, which is also the main direction of domestic enterprises, including BGI and berry and kang. In the future, it is an inevitable trend to highlight industry leaders and enhance concentration. In recent years, the application field of gene sequencing has expanded rapidly, and the market scale of gene sequencing has increased rapidly. It is predicted that the market size of gene sequencing industry in China will reach 654.38+047 billion USD in 2020. By 2024, the market size will be close to $30 billion.
Compared with upstream gene sequencing service, midstream gene sequencing service can provide sequencing service only by purchasing sequencing instruments and reagents, and the threshold is low, so there are also many sequencing service institutions in China. Judging from the layout of gene sequencing service organizations, at present, gene sequencing service organizations in China are mainly distributed in cities such as North, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou. Among them, Beijing has the largest number of gene sequencing services, reaching nearly 50 according to incomplete statistics. Followed by Shanghai (47), Shenzhen (16), Guangzhou and Hangzhou 15 respectively.
Distribution of gene sequencing service organizations
Source: public information collation.
3. Downstream of industrial chain: it is widely used and the demand is continuously released.
The downstream application market of precision medicine has a broad space. At present, China is mainly divided into four directions: prenatal screening, cancer-related diseases, innovative pharmaceutical companies and personal health management. Among them, non-invasive prenatal screening is a mature product with the highest consumer recognition. With the liberalization of China's second child policy, the market will have further room for growth; Cancer diagnosis and treatment is the most potential application market, and cancer has become the second leading cause of death in the world. With the arrival of China's aging society, the incidence of cancer in China will further increase, and the application of second-generation sequencing in tumor neighborhood will have great development potential, and the demand for downstream applications will continue to be released.
(1) Reproductive health service: huge market space.
Taking this examination as an example, the annual number of newborns in China is about160,000. According to the market penetration rate of 654.38+00%, the market scale is about 2.4 billion yuan/year.
Under the premise that the liberalization of the second child policy has led to the continuous increase of elderly pregnant women, it is expected that with the development of technology, the cost of testing is expected to decrease, and at the same time, due to the improvement of residents' health awareness and ability to pay, the penetration rate may increase, which will further open up the market space for reproductive health services.
(2) Cancer continues to be high, laying a market foundation.
The application of precision medical technology in the field of complex diseases is mainly concentrated in the field of tumor, which is subdivided into basic scientific research and clinical application. Basic scientific research is the study of tumor pathogenesis, and its clinical applications are mainly genetic tumor gene detection, conventional individualized drug use gene detection and individualized drug use guidance gene detection.
China has a large population and a huge number of cancer patients or potential patients. Statistics show that there are more than 3 million new cancer patients and about 2 million deaths in China every year, which is the country with the largest number of cancer deaths in the world. The continuous high incidence of cancer has laid the foundation for the application of gene sequencing in the field of cancer. With the implementation of relevant policies, the market potential is expected to be released continuously. It is predicted that the market size of cancer drugs in China will exceed $30 billion in 2020.
(3) The demand for new drug research and development tools is increasing gradually.
The application of gene sequencing in drug research and development and disease treatment is closely related. The close cooperation among hospitals, pharmaceutical companies and gene sequencing institutions has promoted the development of the entire industrial chain. With the increasing importance of gene sequencing analysis in drug research and development, the drug research and development sequencing service market is expected to develop rapidly. At present, many drug genome projects are under way, such as Huada Gene helping Merck to find drug targets and preliminary application, and CRO leading WuXi PharmaTech to set up sequencing application company. Targeted drugs are a new investment direction.
On the whole, the precision medical industry chain presents the vertical integration layout of leading enterprises, such as the layout of Huada Gene, Berry and Kang in the upstream and midstream, and will be further expanded with the help of capital in the future. However, due to technological upgrading and innovation, there are still some opportunities in the whole industrial chain, such as three generations of high-throughput sequencing instruments, new labeled diagnostic reagents, independent testing laboratories, tumor applications and new drug development. Under the background of steady and slowing economy, medical health and precision medical care in sub-sectors will be concerned.