Moyalong
Yunnan province tourism school
With the complex and changeable market environment of flour, the market competition is becoming more and more fierce and the business activities are becoming more and more frequent.
Benefiting from internationalization, travel agencies, as independent economic entities, can always operate in the process of management.
May face various risks, so risk management and crisis management are increasingly affected.
Attract the attention of travel agency managers, capital is the blood of any enterprise, there is no doubt that capital.
Sports, that is, financial activities, run through the whole process of economic activities of travel agencies, so that funds can be raised and invested.
The organic unity of all aspects of release, recovery and distribution, as well as all aspects of financial activities are subject to
Many internal and external factors will lead to the possibility that travel agencies will suffer economic losses.
In the long run, the profitability of Xiang Xing travel agencies will ultimately affect the tourism industry in China.
The development of. It can be seen that the financial risks of travel agencies and their management countermeasures are analyzed and studied.
There is another important significance.
First, the financial risks faced by the tourism industry.
Many factors will cause financial risks of travel agencies. Generally speaking, these factors
It can be divided into external factors and internal factors. External factors mainly refer to the external macro environment.
The financial activities of travel agencies are influenced by the changes of family, society and other economic, political and cultural factors.
Possibility of adverse effects. Internal factors mainly refer to the fact that the travel agency itself does not operate.
Ok, risks such as improper financial management and decision-making mistakes. Therefore, the financial risks of travel agencies mainly include
There are financing risks, investment risks, capital recovery risks, income distribution risks and other risks.
Risk.
1. Financing risk. Fund-raising activities are the production and operation activities of any enterprise.
Starting point, the main purpose of enterprise financing is to expand the scale of production and operation and improve
Economic benefits. In this respect, the main performance of China International Travel Service is that the financing cost is too high.
Large scale, poor financing ability, single financing channel, excessive dependence on bank loans and unreasonable capital structure.
The management debt ratio is high.
Investment risk investment risk refers to the travel agency's failure to meet expectations after investment.
The possibility of future benefits and losses. Investment risk stems from the lack of relevant information of travel agencies.
As well as the seasonal and fluctuating characteristics of low operating efficiency of travel agencies, determine the travel agencies.
The seasonality and fluctuation of economic benefits lead to a long payback period, coupled with macroeconomics
Because of the family voice, the investment risk is self-evident.
3. Risk of fund management and recovery. Capital is the source of life for any enterprise. Similarly,
It is also the foundation of travel agency management. Only sufficient funds can guarantee the operation of travel agencies.
Move normally. One is the "big pot" problem in the use of travel agency funds. travel
In fact, the travel agency is only an intermediate link in the circulation of funds, and funds flow very frequently in the travel agency.
Except the gross profit earned by the travel agency, the rest are prepaid and allocated funds, so the funds are
Shortage has always been an obstacle to the development of travel agencies. The use of funds is not divided into property rights and responsibilities, but more.
It is the "big pot" phenomenon of travel agencies in the use of funds. Second, accounts receivable.
Teach questions. Its risk is mainly the cash flow caused by the uncertainty of recovery time and amount.
Risk, the default of earned education will seriously affect the profitability and quality of travel agencies.
. The recovery of accounts receivable in the village is one of the problems that have been puzzling travel agency bosses for many years.
Block heart disease. If you sell too much, you are afraid that you won't get the tour fee back. If you sell on credit, you can reduce bad debts, but you have to bear the burden.
Heart loses market. In the case of unclear responsibility for the use of funds, outreach personnel often choose
Choosing the latter only emphasizes increasing market share and increasing customers, while ignoring sales.
Desire risk only pays attention to the completion of personal indicators, and does not care whether the accounts can be recovered. eye
Previously, due to the pressure of market competition, the proportion of credit sales in business sales of various enterprises has gradually increased.
Increase, especially the proportion of credit sales by tourism enterprises that produce and sell intangible products. pass by
Due to many factors, travel agencies often lack proper control over accounts receivable.
And management, resulting in a huge amount of savings in long-term accounts receivable, according to relevant surveys and statistics, the existing brigade
The accounts receivable of tourism enterprises account for a high proportion of all current assets, and there are many.
Divided into bad debts or dormant account, it has seriously troubled the normal operation of many travel agencies, making it difficult to move forward.
Facing huge financial risks. Although the risk of fund recovery of travel agencies is not perfect with that of China.
Legal system and credit policy, fierce market competition, and the management order of tourism.
Pass the customs, but the most important thing is that many travel agencies know and deal in their own dishes, that is, films.
It is enterprises that emphasize the number of customers, short-term benefits and long-term profits and capital recovery.
The fundamental problem of industry survival
4. Income distribution risk. Income distribution is the last link of an enterprise's financial cycle.
A link, it refers to the distribution of financial achievements realized by enterprises to investors. travel agency
Income distribution risk refers to the risk that may be brought to travel agencies by income distribution in future production and operation.
The possibility of adverse effects from activities, some of which are obvious, such as debt repayment.
The decline of some capabilities is potential, such as the decline of corporate reputation.
Second, financial and management countermeasures
From the perspective of financial management, when the financial situation is found to be deteriorating and a financial crisis occurs,
Even if many remedial measures are taken at that time, there is often nothing that can be done. I feel like I'm on a journey.
On the financial management of travel agencies, the pre-introducer was a management worker before the financial crisis.
Working can not only avoid the limitations of headache and foot pain, but also learn from travel agencies.
As far as the overall situation of financial management is concerned, we should find the financial crisis as soon as possible with a forward-looking vision, so as to
It is very important for managers to take targeted measures in time and resolve the financial risks in time.
The importance is self-evident. '
According to previous research results, according to the type of information used, the financial crisis is pre-squeezed.
The models are classified as follows
Univariate model. Univariate model refers to the use of a single variable, with personal wealth
Enterprise ratio or cash flow index is the earliest method to predict financial crisis.
It is found that the financial ratio of companies with financial difficulties is significantly higher than that of normal companies.
Therefore, people think that the financial ratio of enterprises can reflect the financial situation of enterprises, and
It is pointed out that the financial ratio has a positive impact on the future of enterprises.
A univariate financial forecasting model is established by statistical method, and it is found that the proportion of debt guarantee is contrary to that of the public.
Our company's forecasting effect is better, followed by the front and side effects of asset return rate and asset-liability ratio.
In addition, Shoichi Tanabe of Japan put forward the univariate discrimination method of interest and bill discount cost.
Analysis method, through the size of interest and bill discount fee to judge whether the enterprise is normal, from
It can also play a predictive role for enterprises.
Multivariate model Multivariate model uses multiple financial indicators or cash.
Traffic indicators comprehensively reflect the financial situation of enterprises, and on this basis, a forecasting model is established.
Type, financial front. According to whether the model has dynamic forecast, financial forecast,
Whether the system is easy to modify and expand can be divided into static statistical models.
And dynamic non-statistical model.
, static statistical model. ① Linear discriminant model. The multivariate linear discrimination of chess type is luck.
Discriminant analysis is based on multivariate statistical analysis method, which is based on a certain basis.
Sample data, establish discriminant function, determine the judgment area, so as to analyze the financial situation of enterprises.
The model of Pre-side is represented by the model of American professors. ② Mastering
Front transverse model of assembly. The model also forms a linear decision function with a similar form.
Discriminant analysis model. However, the model uses principal component analysis in multivariate statistical analysis.
Methods: The comprehensive factors were extracted to form the principal component, and the principal component was established by using the principal component.
Chinese scholars Zhang Aimin and Yang Shu used principal component analysis to rank Chinese listed companies.
This paper studies the company's pre-financial work model. ③ Simple linear probability model. model
It is established by multiple linear regression method, and its form is. Gushi
. Among them, books, , is the coefficient,,,? , for
A predictive variable, namely financial index, is the probability of financial failure of an enterprise, which is based on the model.
For the crisis cut-off point, the greater the value, the greater the possibility of financial failure of enterprises, and the greater the value.
The closer you get. , indicating that corporate financing is safer. ④ Models and models
Also known as logarithmic ratio model and probability unit model, they belong to probability model.
On the basis of overcoming the simple linear probability model and using sum separately, the conclusion of single index analysis may be influenced by some objective factors.
Probability function. Dynamic non-statistical model. The dynamic financial early warning model mainly focuses on the influence of inflation and other factors. It only attaches importance to the analysis of the impact of a single index.
If the inductive learning method in artificial intelligence is applied to financial crisis prediction. Objective is easily influenced by the subjective behavior of managers, so that the model judgment is invalid. And a polytropic module
In the past, the neural network prediction model was the most commonly used method. In the neural network model, many aspects reflecting the company's financial environment, including financial crisis, are comprehensively considered.
After inputting some data, the network will use the current weight to calculate the corresponding prediction factors, reflecting the basic and overall global situation, which can be better than the univariate model.
Value and error, and then the error value is fed back to the network to adjust the weight, which avoids the above situation through continuous weighting.
After complex adjustment, the predicted value gradually approaches the real value. Case-based reasoning (CBR) is a matter of recent years. No matter univariate or multivariate, it has limitations in practice. The author thinks that it is mainly
It is a dynamic non-statistical model method and has been tried to be applied to financial crisis prediction. It has the following points, and the selected indicators all come from the "accrual basis". The author thinks "correct"
It is a method based on empirical reasoning, that is, the financial indicators under the condition of past cases as the main responsibility system will bring artificial manipulation of profits and
Judging possible problems in the future according to experience is a typical example. "Last time, did a company have a common feeling, not by how much it earned, but by whether it was sufficient."
Learn well once "reasoning method. Adequate cash and cash payment capacity commensurate with its business scale. Therefore, it should be "should"
Cash flow model only. Convert the financial indicators calculated under the condition of "cash flow information financial crisis early warning module system" into the finance calculated on the basis of "cash system"
Based on the basic principle of financial management, the value of a company should be equal to the expected cash flow index. The selected indicators are one-sided. Indicators usually adopt methods such as stepwise regression.
Net present value of quantity. If the company doesn't have enough cash to pay the due debts and is not selected into the sample group, although these indicators have obvious signs of financial crisis.
When funds are obtained by other means, the company will eventually go bankrupt. Therefore, the roles of the past and the present, but there is a strong correlation between them, may lead to repetition or omission, such as too much attention.
Cash flow can well reflect the company's value and bankruptcy probability. The operating ability of an enterprise ignores its solvency.
As can be seen from the above general financial model, the univariate model is simple.
The methods of univariate and multivariate models are complicated, and the univariate model only examines the literature of single financial ratio.
Analyzing and investigating, observing the development trend of enterprises, and judging the financial situation of enterprises accordingly, it is not Lin Nanzhi and Tao's "Tourism Economics" attached to Nankai University Press.
It requires complicated calculations. Multivariate model is to select multiple financial indicators at the same time or Chen's "On Internal Spillovers, Influencing Factors and Promotion Measures of Market Competitiveness of Tourism Products"
Cash flow indicators, and then comprehensive analysis through certain methods, the construction of the model involves teachers, in order to ",
Various methods and theories. Compared with multivariate model, univariate model analysis is more conducive to forest financial management. China Current Affairs Political Economy Publishing House,
continent
And Nimpesser's Niu Qibu thinks it's life to take the bow against the gas. Shi Li went to her aunt's pawn and bowed to the poison gas. It's also smart to take the bow against the gas. She went to look for Ukrainian currency with a history of seven meters. She thinks Pei Er is a good match. It also means that Lingpei also means that Seppe wants to be good. Ba Ning also showed that Pei Ba Da Mu chose colors from Bujna, Pei Sepei and Li Peipei showed her life and good colors, and the ice came from Pei Bana.
Continued 1 page, supporting system and supervision methodology constitute a complete supervision mechanism.
The subject of supervision is a necessary supplement to the company supervision system. Shareholders, chairman and directors
All professional committees, supervisory committees, management headed by committees and companies.
Managers and employees at all levels constitute the main body of supervision and are the representatives of the main body of supervision.
Bear the responsibility of the main body of supervision.
Second, the supervision mechanism should clarify the content of the supervisor's supervision.
Supervision is to achieve the company's long-term strategic objectives and current business objectives.
Sufficient shareholder investment return requirements, so the supervision content revolves around the company's business exhibition.
Open. Shareholders' supervision of the board of directors is based on the normal operation of the audit board of directors and risk control indicators.
Supervise the investment risk by reviewing the information disclosure of major events, and the supervision and management are transparent.
Change. The management mainly supervises the specific operation and management of the company.
Third, the supervision mechanism should have a perfect supervision plan.
For the strategic plan submitted by the management to the board of directors for approval, it is necessary to define the overall implementation plan, including
Including the selection of leading figures, organizational structure design, resource allocation scheme, business plan and key points.
Work plan, scheme adjustment principle, incentive and accountability scheme, and supervision scheme. The supervisor will know.
Based on, it is necessary to establish a data transmission channel to facilitate timely and accurate execution.
In the process of transmitting the results information in stages, not only to ensure the authenticity and reliability of the data. manage
The ultimate goal is to solve the problems encountered in the company's operation and complete the company war.
Aim a little. Therefore, after problems are found, we should follow the principle of strategic plan adjustment determined in advance.
Adjust the plan in a targeted manner, including adjusting business ideas and measures and adjusting resource allocation.
Prepare and even adjust the business person in charge.
The results of supervision and evaluation should be linked to the incentive and accountability mechanism, and supervision should be carried out according to law.
Rewards that meet the requirements and punishments that do not meet the requirements. Regardless of rewards and punishments, we must follow them.
The pre-determined plan is to arrive as scheduled and handle it on time and on an equal footing.
Fourthly, the supervision mechanism needs a set of supervision support systems and methods.
The supporting system includes institutional guarantee and organizational guarantee. System guarantee includes information management.
Management system and process, audit system and process, regular business analysis system and process, etc.
The organizational guarantee of the support system refers to assisting the supervision subject to effectively complete the whole supervision.
The departments that complete this link usually include audit department, finance department, operation management department and external audit.
Unit, etc. Supervision methods include how to supervise the authenticity of financial statements and how to supervise the wind.
Risk, how to monitor the achievement of indicators and so on. Supervision subject, supervision content, supervision scheme and supervision
The management of the company has established a very good risk management process, which will be held every quarter.
An audit committee was convened to regularly check business risk indicators, such as average collection period.
Number, inventory turnover days, bad debt reserve and discount reserve are for the current period.
The form of risk control requires management to make plans. In addition, the board of directors requires management to make plans.
Leave the high-risk area and its monitoring points in the future, clarify the responsible person, and report to the high wind
Risk points and their events shall be reported to the board of directors in a timely manner. In order to implement risk control, it is necessary to put significant
Risk control is listed as the assessment index of the relevant person in charge.
In the company's three-tier governance structure, each layer should have its own responsibilities and rights, and everyone should
We should complete our work according to the responsibilities and rights entrusted by the organization, so as not to be offside or absent.
This requires a supervision mechanism to ensure that excessive supervision is implemented as a mechanism, not as a temporary measure.
Stone is not for someone, and it has nothing to do with trusting someone. Every enterprise should
Use the construction supervision mechanism to promote the long-term healthy development of the company.
Establishing a perfect corporate governance model is not a one-off event. It should be noted that,
Perfecting the governance of listed companies is a long-term work for the development of the securities market. In order to go public
The "quality" improvement of corporate governance level depends on the improvement of external environment and related measures.
Cooperation includes improving the ownership structure of listed companies and solving the problem of false placement of state-owned shares.
Cultivate an effective external supervision mechanism and establish a standardized manager market and labor market.
Wait a minute. This requires regulators, listed companies, intermediaries, investors, the public and so on.
* * * All walks of life work together in Qi Xin.
Textual research literature
] Zhang Xin, Modern Enterprise System, 2nd Edition, Tongji University Press, read.
Jiao Chengping, Corporate Governance, Social Sciences Zhang Fu Publishing House, author of "
Chen Ting, Collected Works on Translation Studies of Capital Structure Theory, Shanghai People's Publishing House.
Cao Honghui, "Ownership Structure, Corporate Governance and Capital Market Efficiency", China Academy of Social Sciences.
Rong institute
Zheng Deli and Shen Huashan, Ownership Structure in Corporate Governance, Sun Yat-sen University Press.
Wen Zongyu, The Yellow Matter in Modern Corporate Governance: Comparison and Balance, Economic Science Press.
agency
Mei Hongchang, Corporate Governance Research, Chongqing Publishing House,