Central Bank: In August, RMB loans increased 1.2 1 trillion, and broad money increased by 8.2%.
Xiao: The regulatory authorities did not control the increase in loans of real estate enterprises, mainly reducing the illegal "blood transfusion" assets.
Market review
Market comment: The news continues to be warm, and the market is expected to continue to rebound.
Wholesale and retail: in the first half of 20 19, the social total was zero 19.5 trillion yuan, up by 8.4%, and Q2 was higher than Q 1.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 345.9, down 0.04%; Copper 47 1 10, down 0.25%; Rebar 3477, up 0.03%; Rubber 1 1940, down 0.33%; The PVC index was 65 10, down by 0.08%; Zheng Chun 2245, down 0.13%; Shanghai Aluminum 144 15, up 0.17%; Shanghai Nickel 142980, down 0.24%; Iron ore 666.0, up1.60%; Coke 1968.5, up by 0.23%; Coking coal 135 1, up 0.19%; Crude oil was 436.5, down 3.19%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 6066, down 0.43%; Corn 1873, down 0.21%; Palm oil 4820, down 0.45%; Cotton 12920, down 0.39%; Zhengmai 2406, up 0.21%; White sugar 5496, down 0.09%; Apple 8475, down 0.94%;
Exchange rate: EUR/USD/KOOC-0/./KOOC-0/0/KOOC-0//KOOC-0/,down 0.29%; USD/RMB 7. 1085, down 0.01%; USD/HK$ 7.8385, down 0.02%.
(The above futures data are from Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange)
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Main recommendations
1. Central Bank: In August, RMB loans increased 1.2 1 trillion, and broad money increased by 8.2%.
At the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was 193.55 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0. 1 percentage point higher than that of the end of last month, which was the same as that of the same period of last year. The balance of narrow money (M 1) was 55.68 trillion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than the end of last month and 0.5 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 7.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The net cash investment in the month was 46.3 billion yuan.
At the end of August, the balance of local and foreign currency loans was 153.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 1.9%. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB loans was 148.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, and the growth rate was 0.2 and 0.8 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively.
In August, RMB loans increased by 1.2 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.5 billion yuan. By sector, household loans increased by 653.8 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 654.38+0998 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 454 billion yuan; Loans from non-financial enterprises and government organizations increased by 65 13 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 35.5 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 428.5 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 242.6 billion yuan; Loans from non-banking financial institutions decreased by 94.5 billion yuan.
At the end of August, the balance of foreign currency loans was US$ 805 billion, down 3.7% year-on-year. In that month, foreign currency loans decreased by10.40 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8 billion US dollars.
At the end of August, the balance of local and foreign currency deposits was 195.2 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB deposits 190.0 1 trillion yuan increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 and 0. 1 percentage point higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, respectively.
In August, RMB deposits increased by10.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 71470 million yuan year-on-year. Among them, household deposits increased by 27,654.38+0.4 billion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 579.2 billion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 9.5 billion yuan, and non-banking financial institutions increased by 729.8 billion yuan.
At the end of August, the balance of foreign currency deposits was US$ 730.9 billion, down 4.7% year-on-year. In that month, foreign currency deposits decreased by $654.38+0.43 billion, a year-on-year decrease of $654.38+0.22 billion.
In August, the inter-bank RMB market traded a total of 102.87 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 4.68 trillion yuan, down 1. 1% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the average daily turnover of interbank lending decreased by 265,438+0% year-on-year, the average daily turnover of cash bonds increased by 26.5% year-on-year, and the average daily turnover of pledged repo decreased by 2.7% year-on-year.
In August, the weighted average interest rate of interbank lending was 2.65%, which was 0.57 and 0.36 percentage points higher than that of last month and the same period of last year. The weighted average interest rate of pledged repo is 2.65%, which is 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that of last month and the same period of last year respectively.
In August, cross-border trade, foreign direct investment and foreign direct investment in current accounts such as goods and services settled in RMB were 385.9 billion yuan, 654.38+0693 billion yuan, 59.4 billion yuan and 654.38+0934 billion yuan respectively.
Comments: From the financial statistics report released by the central bank in August, it can be seen that the marginal growth rate of credit in August has improved after the largest monthly decline in new RMB loans since July 20 18. Specifically, as an important indicator to observe the financing demand of the real economy, the growth rate of medium and long-term loans in the enterprise sector has improved. In August, the new scale reached 428.5 billion yuan, with a slight increase in year-on-year growth rate and chain growth rate; Although the short-term loans of the enterprise sector decreased by 35.5 billion yuan, the year-on-year growth rate and the chain growth rate also improved. Combined with the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC)'s recent proposal to put the work of "six stabilities" in a more prominent position and speed up the implementation of measures to reduce the real interest rate level, market investors' interest rate cuts are expected to support the current market trend to some extent.
(investment consultant? Jin Cai? Certificate number of registered investment consultant: S02606 1 1090020)
2. Xiao: The regulatory authorities did not control the increase in loans of real estate enterprises, mainly reducing the illegal "blood transfusion" assets.
Xiao 1 1, chief risk officer, spokesperson and chief of the general office of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said at the briefing of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission that the adjustment of the credit structure is in progress and has not yet been completed. Excessive financing of real estate is not good, and all social funds enter one industry, which is not conducive to the balanced development of the whole economy. From the perspective of optimizing the credit structure, banks should follow the rules of bank operation, raise capital and follow the standards of credit concentration. The regulatory authorities have not controlled the increase of loans to real estate enterprises. Banks should follow the national real estate regulation rules and regulations when granting credit to the real estate industry, and also follow the regulatory rules. In the past, banks colluded with real estate enterprises to "transfusion" real estate through off-balance sheet funds, and the pressure drop of the regulatory authorities was mainly these assets.
Comments: The regulatory authorities did not control the increase in loans to real estate enterprises, which means that the market is worried about the regulatory authorities' supervision over the financing of real estate enterprises. During this round of rebound, real estate stocks are weaker than the broader market as a whole, and there is a certain chance for the market outlook to make up for the increase.
(investment consultant? Jin Cai? Certificate number of registered investment consultant: S02606 1 1090020)
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Market review
1, market comment: The news continues to be warm, and the market is expected to continue to rebound.
Influenced by the news of "CSRC 12 Reform and Opening up the Capital Market" and "Foreign Exchange Bureau cancels QFII and RQFII quota restrictions" after the close of Tuesday, the major A-share stock indexes collectively opened slightly higher on Wednesday, but then the sectors of brewing, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and medicine continued to weaken, and all the stock indexes closed down. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4 1%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1. 12%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.43%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 0.74%, the small and medium-sized board index by 1.20% and the Growth Enterprise Market Index by/kloc-. The volume of transactions in the two cities has shrunk significantly. Nearly 70% of the stocks closed green, with 48 daily limit and 7 daily limit.
On the surface, a few sectors in the industry, such as diversified finance, banking and securities, performed well, while wine-making, telecom operation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, shipping and medicine were among the top losers. In particular, the liquor sector index, driven by the leading stock Kweichow Moutai, plummeted by 4.7 1%, and the short-term trend was worrying. There are not many bright spots in the theme, only a small number of concept plates such as disperse dyes, hydrogen energy and intellectual property closed up.
From the trend point of view, the lock-up around 3000 points in the previous period and the short-term rapid accumulation of profit-making disk blocked the market, and many industry indexes were weak, and the technology stocks with strong performance in the near future fell back one after another. Although there has been a correction in the broader market, the regulatory authorities are deepening the reform of the capital market in an all-round way and trying to promote all kinds of medium and long-term funds to enter the market. As the thirteenth round of Sino-US economic and trade consultations is not yet approaching, we believe that the short-term news of A-shares is likely to continue to be warmer, and the risk appetite of the market is expected to continue to rise. It is expected that there will be no major retracement of the index. In operation, investors are advised to pay more attention to the index in the near future and absorb high-quality growth stocks on dips.
(The investment consultant has registered the investment consultant certificate number: S02606 130900 15)
2. Wholesale and retail: from 2065438 to the first half of 2009, the total social amount was zero 19.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.4%, and Q2 was higher than Q 1.
In the first half of 20 19, the total amount of social products increased by 8.4%, of which 1Q 19 increased by 8.3% and 2Q 19 increased by 8.6%. According to the data of 100 schools, the growth rate of 2Q 18- 19 schools is 0. 1%, 1.7%, -2.3% and 0.2% respectively, and the estimated growth rate of 2Q 19 is 0.4%, which is obvious from the previous month. 1H 19CPI growth rate rebounded month-on-month, and it expanded month by month from March to May, and it was similar in June. Among them, the CPI of 1H 19 food increased by 4.7% year-on-year, up by 3.5pct year-on-year, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.93pct.
Investment Comments: This year, the wholesale and retail index underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by more than 5 percentage points, mainly because the year-on-year growth rate of social zero declined and fell below double digits, which affected investors' confidence in the entire retail sector. We believe that the era of high growth has passed. In the era of stock economy, leading retail enterprises are expected to further enhance market concentration, and leading sub-sectors will perform better. At the same time, investors are advised to pay attention to cosmetics, maternal and child, gold jewelry and other sub-sectors with good growth, and the growth of these tracks is better than that of the whole industry.
(The investment consultant has registered the investment consultant certificate number: S02606 130900 15)