A few days ago, an environmental investigation documentary "Under the Dome" filmed by a retired CCTV reporter caused a heated discussion in society, followed by various professional and non-professional analysis and suggestions. Among them, some people attribute the main cause of smog formation to coal burning. So what is the real situation? Will there be coal in the future? An article by Mr. Tang De Bu, the chief contributor to the news client of Hong Kong Phoenix Network, expounds the relationship between energy development and environmental protection in China. Calm, objective and true, restored a real China coal.
"China-can you leave the coal?"
Look at natural gas first.
China's natural gas reserves are very limited, including emerging unconventional shale gas, which claims to be huge, but its exploitation value is extremely low. After decades of exploration, the recoverable distribution of oil and gas in China, including unconventional oil and gas, is basically clear, and the possibility of a sudden emergence of large oil fields is basically zero.
As for imported natural gas, even if all the land, sea and coal-based gas imported from Central Asia, the Middle East and Myanmar are included, China's medium-and long-term planned annual natural gas consumption is 360 billion cubic meters, with a scale of 260 million tons. This is the limit.
You know, the annual consumption of raw coal in China has exceeded 3.8 billion tons. Even if converted into standard energy unit coal equivalent, the long-term consumption of natural gas is still only about115 of that of coal.
Therefore, it is right to use gas vigorously and it is impossible to replace coal.
Look at nuclear energy again.
In 20 14, the installed capacity of nuclear power in China was about 20.3 million kilowatts, and the annual power generation was130.5 billion kwh, accounting for only 2.39% of the total power generation in China.
At present, the installed capacity of nuclear power under construction is about 30 million kilowatts, which is already the fastest developing country in the world; It is estimated that the installed capacity will reach 58 million kilowatts by 2020, and 30 million kilowatts will be under construction.
It is predicted that by 2030, the scale of nuclear power should be around 654.38+0.2 billion kilowatts, and the annual power generation will be 800 billion kWh, equivalent to 654.38+0 billion tons of standard coal.
This is an extreme development. The efficiency and scale of nuclear power may be far below people's unrealistic imagination. Little known is that today, China's dependence on the import of uranium raw materials has exceeded 90%, far higher than its dependence on foreign oil of 60%.
Finally, look at water energy.
The so-called overall rich hydropower resources, once distributed to1300 million people, only 25% of the world's per capita, ranking first in the world 100.
Although China's theoretical reserves are nearly 700 million kilowatts, the technically exploitable capacity is less than 550 million kilowatts, while the economically exploitable capacity is only 400 million kilowatts, which is equivalent to the annual power generation of 654.38+075 billion kWh, that is, 265.438+05 billion tons of standard coal every year, and that's all.
Here's a bargain: 260 million tons of natural gas, 654.38 billion tons of nuclear energy and more than 200 million tons of hydropower. This is the largest available scale of traditional clean energy in China for a long time, which is too small compared with billions of tons of coal.
As for wind power, solar energy and biomass energy, it looks beautiful, but the reality is very backbone. Even if controlled nuclear fusion, the ultimate energy source of mankind, is finally applied, it will be after the 22nd century.
After several years, China's main energy source will still be coal.
Coal must be the chief culprit of smog?
Coal itself is not a pollutant. Only unclean use will make people misunderstand coal.
Coal can be as clean as natural gas, or even cleaner!
In addition to the coal washing technology mentioned in Under the Sky, there are more advanced technologies to make coal clean and efficient.
These little-known advanced technologies are in Beijing Yanjiao Sanhe Power Plant and Shanghai Waigaoqiao No.3 Power Plant.
These two power plants naturally represent the top level of coal-fired power generation in the world and are the cleanest and most efficient coal-fired power plants in the world. How clean are they?
Pollutant emission has reached the level of natural gas power plants, and some indicators even exceed natural gas. They have redefined coal-fired power generation and redefined what is clean energy!
Just like the demonstration power plant "Waisan", two domestic ultra-supercritical coal-fired generating units with 654.38+0 million kilowatts have been constantly refreshing and rewriting the world record since they were put into operation in 2008. Except for smoke and dust emission, the emission level of External III is better than that of gas-fired power plants. Among them, the emission level of nitrogen oxides, which is considered to contribute the most to PM2.5, is only about 1/3 of the natural gas emission standard.
Practice has proved that coal-fired power generation can even surpass gas-fired power generation and become cleaner, more environmentally friendly as long as advanced scientific and technological means are adopted.
If such advanced demonstration technology can be applied to China's 900 million kilowatts thermal power installation, supplemented by a better and more reasonable spatial layout of the power grid, how much can the environmental pressure be improved?
This is the true meaning of environmental protection and development.
As coal miners, we must not be arrogant, but believe in ourselves and the Prometheus fire on which we live-clean, environmentally friendly and efficient.
Although the market is experiencing severe winter at present, we must firmly believe that the spring of coal will definitely come. Because-China cannot do without coal.
If winter comes, can spring be far behind?