Original title: Mid-year observation: analysis and judgment of China's economic situation in 2022
Affected by the pneumonia epidemic, the situation at home and abroad has undergone new changes, and the superposition of multiple factors has a far-reaching impact on China's economic development. In 2022, with the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, it is of great significance for China to achieve high-quality economic development in the Tenth Five-Year Plan period and even in the longer development stage how to restore economic development in the complex and changeable internal and external environment and realize sustained and healthy economic development in the medium and long term. Let's analyze the economic situation in 2022.
With the continuous improvement of China's economy, a new pattern of development, in which the domestic big cycle is the main part and the domestic double cycle promotes each other, is gradually taking shape, and new comparative advantages are playing a role.
Judging from the published Acer data in 2022 and the data in the first half of 2022, China's economy is constantly improving, and its new comparative advantages are prominent, mainly in the following aspects.
On the one hand, in 2022, China's economy improved quarter by quarter, the only major economy in the world achieved positive economic growth, and its economic strength reached a new level. In 2022, with the pneumonia epidemic under control, China's economy improved quarter by quarter, reaching a positive growth rate of 2.3 percentage points throughout the year, and the level of economic growth gradually returned to normal. Economic strength has reached a new level. In 2022, China's GDP exceeded 1000 billion, accounting for 17% of the world. The per capita GDP reached 72,447 yuan, ranking 59th in the world. Industrial added value accounts for more than 30% of the world.
On the other hand, China's economy will continue to improve in 2022, and a new development pattern with domestic large circulation as the main body and domestic dual circulation promoting each other is gradually taking shape. According to the data released in 2022:
First of all, from the perspective of growth structure, China's economic growth will continue to improve and its structure will continue to be optimized in 2022. In the first half of the year, the GDP was 532,654.38+0.67 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+02.7% at comparable prices. The average growth rate in two years was 5.3%, 0.3 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter, and the economic development showed a good trend of steady progress and steady progress. From the perspective of growth structure, the contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth in the first half of 2022 was 6 1.7%, driving GDP growth by 7.84 percentage points; The contribution rate of total capital formation to economic growth is 19.2%, which drives GDP growth by 2.4 percentage points; Net export growth 19. 1% boosted GDP growth by 2.4 percentage points.
Second, from the perspective of industrial added value, it has basically returned to the economic level before the outbreak of pneumonia, and the profits of industrial enterprises have grown strongly. In the first half of this year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.9% year-on-year, with an average increase of 7.0% in two years, 0.2 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter; The contribution rate of added value of service industry to economic growth was 53%, 2. 1 percentage point higher than that in the first quarter.
Third, from the domestic market, domestic demand has recovered strongly. In the first half of this year, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 25.59 trillion yuan, up 65.438+02.6% year-on-year, with an average growth of 4.4% in two years. The total retail sales of social consumer goods was 21190.4 billion yuan, up 23.0% year-on-year, with an average growth of 4.4% in two years, 0.2 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter.
Fourth, from the market point of view, the import and export of goods and services continued to improve. In the first half of this year, the total import and export volume of goods was 1, 806,565,438+0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27. 1%. At the same time, from the perspective of service trade, in the first quarter of this year, China's service trade import and export increased by 0.5% year-on-year; Among them, service exports increased by 22.8%; Imports decreased by 13.5%, and the service trade deficit decreased by 74.7%. From June 5438 to May, China's import and export of service trade increased by 3.7% year-on-year; Exports increased by 20. 1%, with an average growth of 8.3% in two years; Imports decreased by 7.5%, with a two-year average decrease of 14.8%, and the deficit decreased by 67.3%.
Challenges to China's Economic Growth during the Tenth Five-Year Plan and in the Future
The world economy is in the recovery stage in 2022, and the World Bank predicts that the global GDP will increase by 4 percentage points in 2022. Although the world economy is still in the process of recovery, the environment it faces will be more complicated. First of all, there is great uncertainty in epidemic prevention and control. Although China has well controlled the epidemic, there is still great uncertainty in the world. At present, the total number of confirmed cases of pneumonia in the world continues to rise, which has great economic uncertainty and great influence on China's foreign economy. Secondly, foreign uncertainties have an impact on China's macro-economy. For example, the super-scale measures in the United States will bring inflation, lead to the depreciation of the US dollar, and then affect the rise of commodity prices, and have an impact on China's exchange rate and price level, thus causing economic uncertainty in China.
Therefore, building a new development pattern with domestic macro-cycle as the main body and domestic dual-cycle promoting each other depends on China's domestic market. Judging from the current data, China's investment and consumption levels will further recover, and it is also predicted that China's economic growth will exceed 8% in 2022. However, according to the data in recent years and 2022, there are still the following problems in China's economic growth during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period and in the future.
On the one hand, although the overall investment level has recovered in 2022, the trend of continuous decline has not been significantly changed. First of all, the investment level needs to be further restored. Although affected by the epidemic in 2022, China's investment level still increased by 2.9 percentage points, but compared with the increase of 5.4 percentage points and 5.9 percentage points in 2022, it decreased by 2.5 percentage points and 3 percentage points respectively. In the first half of this year, investment increased by 12.6 percentage points, with an average increase of 4.4 percentage points in two years, which has not yet reached the pre-epidemic level.
Second, the investment level is not growing fast. In terms of investment, investment in the first half of this year increased by 15.4% year-on-year, which was only 1 percentage point higher than the investment level in 2022, and decreased by 3.7 percentage points and 7.7 percentage points respectively compared with the 4.7% and 8.7% in 2022.
Third, the proportion of investment has declined. If we further examine the investment structure, the proportion of capital investment in the total investment has been declining, from 64 percentage points in 2022 to 55.7 percentage points in 2022, and only 57.3 percentage points in the first quarter of this year.
On the other hand, the consumption level, which has been supporting the steady economic growth in China in recent years, continues to decline, and the downward trend has not been restrained. First, although consumption recovered in 2022, the downward trend did not improve. Affected by the epidemic in 2022, consumption decreased by 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, which was nearly 12 percentage points and 13 percentage points lower than that of 8% and 9% in 2022, respectively. In the first half of 2022, it increased by 23% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 4.4% in two years; However, in a single month, the total retail sales of social consumer goods actually increased by 12. 1% in June, with an average growth rate of 4.9% in two years, 8 percentage points lower than that in 2022 and 9 percentage points lower than that in 2022.
Second, China's consumption rate and household consumption rate are still at a low level compared with the same period. From the macro-level consumption rate, in 2022, China's per capita GDP exceeded US$ 65.438+0 million, but China's macro-level consumption rate was only 38.8 percentage points, 60.5% higher than that of the United States.
5. Japan's 53.9 and 5 1.8 are both low; From the micro level (the ratio of per capita consumption to per capita income), the consumption rate of China residents in 2022 was 67.4%, lower than that of the United States (87%) and Japan (79.2%). Affected by the epidemic in 2022, the consumption rate of China residents dropped to 65.8%, and further dropped to 65% in the first half of this year. Especially from 20 13 to 2022, the consumption rate of China residents dropped from 7 1% to 65.8%, and dropped to 65% in the first half of this year. The consumption rate of urban residents dropped from 69.85% to 6 1.6%, and further dropped to 60.4% in the first half of this year.
Third, there are structural problems in China's consumption. First, the service consumption in China is insufficient, which leads to the increase of Engel's coefficient. Affected by the pneumonia epidemic, China's service consumption declined. In 2022, the per capita service consumption expenditure was 9037 yuan, down 8.6% from the previous year, accounting for 42.6% of the per capita consumption expenditure of residents. Engel's coefficient rose after the epidemic, rising to 33.22% in the first quarter of 2022, including 32% in cities and 35.9% in rural areas. Secondly, there is regional imbalance and urban-rural gap in consumption level. At the same time, per capita consumption of urban residents is always more than twice that of rural residents. Finally, although China's import and export are strong, China's high-end manufacturing industry is still in short supply and more dependent on imports. In 2022, the total import and export value of China's goods trade reached 3.21600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, a record high. However, China's core technology products still need to be imported. In 2022, the chip self-sufficiency rate in China is only about 30%, which is insufficient.
The Causes Affecting the Endogenous Motive Force of China's Economic Growth
The problem of domestic demand and the shortage of high-end supply in China have caused the lack of endogenous power in China. In addition to the impact of pneumonia, there are deeper problems in future economic development that need to be comprehensively considered.
First, the low growth rate of private economic investment at the investment level is a very important reason, and economic uncertainty poses a challenge to this year's investment.
First, one of the important factors for the decline of China's investment level is the slow growth of China's private investment level and the decline of the proportion of capital in investment. Although the investment in the first half of this year increased by 15.4 percentage points year-on-year, it decreased compared with the same period in 2022. Looking further at the proportion of capital investment, although it has increased in the first half of this year, it is only 57.8%. Insufficient investment motivation is still an important factor in the decline of China's fixed assets investment.
Second, economic uncertainty has had an uncertain impact on the investment level this year. With the rise of commodity prices, the rapid rise of production prices and purchase prices of industrial producers this year has also curbed the growth of investment. In the first half of this year, the producer price index PPI rose by 5. 1%, and the purchase price of industrial producers rose by 7. 1%. In June, the PPI rose by 8.8%, and the purchase price of industrial producers rose by 13. 1 percentage point. The purchase price of industrial producers has risen too fast, which has pushed up the cost of enterprises and caused the investment of enterprises to decline.
Second, the basic reason for the decline of consumption level in China is residents' income. This includes the low proportion of income in GDP, the slow growth of residents' income, the income structure and income inequality of residents.
First, the proportion of residents' income in GDP is not high, which has declined in recent years. It is the income level that determines the consumption level of residents. In 2022, China's GDP exceeded 100 trillion yuan, and the per capita GDP reached 72,447 yuan. However, the proportion of residents' income in China's GDP is not high, hovering around 40%-50%. In 2003, it accounted for about 47%, and by 2065,438+0 it had dropped to 4,654,338. It is particularly noteworthy that since 2022, the proportion of China's residents' income in GDP has not increased but decreased, from 44.6% in 2022 to 43.4% in 2022, and it has increased in 2022, but it is only 44.4%. There is still a huge gap between this ratio and developed countries: for example, in 2008, the total GDP of the United States was 14.39 trillion US dollars, while the disposable income was 10.64 trillion US dollars, accounting for more than 70%. In fact, from 1990 to 2008, the ratio of income to GDP in the United States reached 84% on average.
Second, there are problems in the income growth of China residents. On the one hand, the income growth of residents is not fast, especially urban residents. In recent years, the real income of China residents increased by 5.8% in 2022, which did not reach the speed of GDP growth of 6. 1%; In 2022, the real income of China residents increased by 2. 1 percentage point, which was lower than the real GDP growth rate in 2022; In the first quarter of 2022, the income growth of residents was 13.7%, which was lower than the GDP growth rate. If calculated according to the two-year average, the two-year average real growth rate is 4.5%, which is also lower than the GDP growth. Especially in the first quarter of 2022, disposable income of urban households's growth was 12.3%, which was lower than GDP growth 1.5 percentage points. In the first half of this year, residents' income increased by 12 percentage points, which was also lower than GDP growth. On the other hand, the slow growth of wage income is an important reason for the slow growth of residents' income, especially that of urban residents. Wage income has always occupied an important part in the income structure of Chinese residents, accounting for 56% in 2022, but the growth rate of wage income is lower than that of household income and nominal GDP. In 2022, nominal GDP will increase by about 10%, nominal income will increase by 8.9%, and wages will increase by 8.6%. In 2022, the wage income of urban residents will reach 60%. The growth rate of wage income of urban residents is lower than that of household income and nominal GDP. In 2022, nominal GDP increased by about 7.8%, nominal income increased by 8.9%, and urban wages increased by 7.5%, which is also the fundamental reason for the slow growth of urban residents' income in recent years. In the first half of this year, the income growth of Chinese residents was 12.4 1%, which was lower than that of residents, especially that of urban residents 10%.
Third, there are structural problems in the income of China residents. The proportion of property income in the income structure of Chinese residents is not high, especially in rural areas. In the income structure of Chinese residents, the proportion of property income has not been high. In 2022, residents' property income increased by 10. 1 percentage point, which was 12.9% lower than that in 2022, and the proportion of property income only increased by 8.5 percentage points. Further analysis shows that the proportion of rural residents' property income is only 2.3%, which has increased to about 2.4% in 2022 and only 2.88 percentage points in the first half of 2022. There is still a big gap compared with 20%. This directly leads to the slow growth of residents' income in China, and it is impossible to realize the synchronization of residents' income growth and GDP.
Fourth, income distribution inequality has intensified in recent years. GINI coefficient, a measure of income distribution inequality, rose from 0.479 in 2003 to 0.490 in 2009, and then fell from 2009 to 0.462 in 2022, but it began to rise again in recent years and rose to 0.474 in 2022. In the data of residents' income in recent years, the median income growth is lower than the average income growth level of residents, which is not only conducive to the expansion of low-and middle-income groups, but also conducive to the continuous expansion of consumption. In 2022, the median income of residents increased by 3.8 percentage points, which was lower than the average increase of 4.7 percentage points. In the data of residents' income in the first half of this year, the median income increased by 1 1.6%, which was lower than the average growth rate of residents' income.
Third, the secondary industry, especially the manufacturing industry, has fallen too fast in our industrial structure. From 20 12 to 2022, the proportion of the secondary industry in GDP has dropped from 45.4% to 37.8%, and the proportion of the employed population has dropped from 30% to 28%, showing obvious signs of "de-industrialization". On the one hand, China's "de-industrialization" seems premature. Experience shows that when developed countries began to "de-industrialize", the per capita income had reached about 1 ,000 US dollars (calculated at the price of 1 ,990), while China entered "de-industrialization" for 20 12 years, and the per capita GDP was only 6 1 ,000 US dollars. On the other hand, China's "de-industrialization" is too fast. In recent years, the proportion of the secondary industry in GDP has decreased by nearly 1 percentage point every year. Compared with the de-industrialization process in the United States in the past 40 years, the average annual decline is less than 0.5%, and the "de-industrialization" in China has declined rapidly. It further decreased to 37. 15% in the first quarter of 2022, and increased by 38.9% in the first half of this year, while the labor productivity ratio of the tertiary industry and the secondary industry in China was around 0.8 (0.76 in 2022).
In view of the lack of endogenous motivation in China's economic growth, China's economy needs to take countermeasures and suggestions.
First, the economic growth is in a reasonable range, and the sustained growth of research and experimental development (RD) is very important to improve the total factor productivity.
First, economic growth should be in an appropriate range during the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period until 2035. In 2022, the per capita GDP of China was 72,447 yuan, about 1.500 US dollars, about 17% of that of the United States, and the total GDP was 70% of that of the United States. According to the low level of modernization, the per capita GDP in 2035 will be 25% of that of the United States, with an average annual growth rate of 2.4 percentage points faster than that of the United States; According to a higher level of modernization, the per capita will reach 37% of the United States in 2035, and the annual growth rate will be 5.2 percentage points faster than that of the United States, so that it will reach 1.5 times that of the United States in 2035. So economic growth is very important.
The second is to continue the sustained growth of RD and improve the total factor productivity. We should carry out the concept of development and regard innovation as one of the driving forces of economic growth. Increasing the support for basic scientific research, the proportion of basic scientific research in China has not been high. Only by continuously strengthening the investment in basic scientific research can we make a breakthrough in the key technology of "sticking the neck". Accelerate the upgrading of technological innovation capabilities of enterprises, support the development of strategic industries, support the increase of investment in equipment renewal and technological transformation, and promote the optimization and upgrading of traditional manufacturing industries. Create a number of competitive advanced manufacturing clusters, and improve the basic industrial capacity and the modernization level of the industrial chain. Rely more on market mechanism and modern scientific and technological innovation to promote the development of service industry, promote the extension of productive industries to specialization and high-end value chain, and promote the upgrading of life industries to high quality and diversification. It is necessary to create a good environment for innovation and encourage enterprises and institutions of higher learning to continuously increase investment in research and development.
The third is the reasonable scale of the secondary industry, especially the manufacturing industry. With the development of domestic economy and the continuous adjustment of industrial structure, although the decline of the proportion of the secondary industry is still the future trend, we should pay attention to the reasonable scale of the secondary industry, especially the manufacturing industry, steadily promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, give play to the advantages of China's industrial structure, and constantly tap the potential of China's industrial structure. On the one hand, give full play to the advantages of China's complete industrial structure and accelerate the optimization and upgrading of manufacturing industry; On the other hand, improve the labor productivity of China's service industry. In recent years, the labor productivity of China's service industry has been lower than that of China's secondary industry. With the increasing proportion of the tertiary industry in China, improving the labor productivity of China's service industry is the fundamental task of industrial restructuring in the future.
Fourth, give full play to the advantages of China's existing new generation information technologies such as 5G and artificial intelligence, and vigorously develop the digital economy industry, which can not only solve the problem of economic recovery under the normalization of the epidemic, but also promote China's industrial transformation and upgrading. The new generation technology of 5G and artificial intelligence is an important starting point to promote the optimization and upgrading of our industrial structure. Using a new generation of technology can solve the structural problems of the labor market, including supply and demand, and at the same time make workers' working methods more flexible. Promoting the development of the next generation technologies of 5G and artificial intelligence can attract the participation of private enterprises and solve the problem of slow investment growth in China.
Second, strengthen the growth of residents' income and increase the proportion of residents' income in GDP, thus fundamentally solving the problem of consumption growth in China. The first is to strengthen the income growth index of residents. The party's suggestion is to "strive to achieve the synchronization of residents' income growth and economic development", but the real realization of this task is not very easy. Judging from the data in recent years, the growth rate of residents' income, especially that of urban residents, has been lower than that of GDP.
The second is to put forward the residents' income multiplication plan from the level. In the process of its development, developed countries not only put forward the income growth plan, but also put forward the income multiplication plan that the income growth is faster than the GDP growth, even twice the GDP. For example, from 1990 to 2008, the GDP of the United States increased by 2.8%, the income of residents increased by 5.35%, and the income growth basically reached twice the GDP.
Third, improving the income structure of residents and increasing the growth and proportion of property income are long-term mechanisms to solve the income growth of residents in China. This requires China to establish a sound capital market to ensure that residents can increase their property income through the capital market. Vigorously encourage the development of wealth management industry and reasonably guide residents to allocate wealth assets. With the increase of residents' income, residents' demand for wealth management is growing day by day, but China's wealth management is far from meeting the needs of residents. Further speed up the rural land system, so that farmers can obtain floating income through farmland, houses and various agricultural products.
Third, finance should improve the tax system, vigorously implement tax reduction measures, improve the security system and strengthen the equalization of public services. First, in finance, it is necessary to further increase tax reduction and fee reduction, moderate scale of deficit ratio and scale of local special debts, solve the problem of insufficient local financial resources and reduce local financial pressure. On the one hand, it is necessary to increase the intensity and implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction. In the data of the first half of this year, China's fiscal revenue111600 million yuan, up 2 1.8% year-on-year, of which tax revenue 1004 1 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year. Therefore, it is necessary to further increase the intensity of tax reduction and fee reduction. On the other hand, it is necessary to ensure local financial resources, increase the scale of local special debts, and reduce local financial pressure.
Second, perfecting the tax system and implementing tax reduction measures are important means to ensure the income of Chinese residents. Vigorously reduce the relevant taxes of enterprises, improve the profits of enterprises, and then increase the wage income of residents. In the financial data of the first half of this year, the corporate income tax was 275,654,380+0.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7% and 352.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%. Therefore, it is necessary to further increase the burden reduction of enterprises. Personal income tax is an important measure to improve the current income growth of residents. In the first half of this year, personal income tax was 722.2 billion yuan, up 24.9% year-on-year, the fastest growth among all taxes. However, there are many levels of personal income tax in China, and the higher tax rate has reached 45%. Suggest an adjustment.
The third is to increase expenditure on health, urban and rural community building, security and employment. In 2022, the investment growth in health care, security and employment was 15.2% and 10.9% respectively, which was significantly higher than the national general public budget expenditure growth, but it decreased by 20% in urban and rural community expenditure. In 2022, the community played an important role in the pneumonia epidemic, and we should continue to increase investment in urban and rural community construction.
The fourth is to improve the system, promote the upgrading of related industries, including the health industry, increase infrastructure investment, and improve multi-level infrastructure construction. Building complete infrastructure from provinces, cities, counties, townships (towns) and villages (communities) can attract capital investment through market mechanism and solve the problem of slow investment growth. In 2022, the growth of infrastructure investment in China was only 0.9%. If infrastructure construction is increased, investment growth can be significantly boosted.
Fourth, the impact of new technologies on employment and income distribution. The adoption of new technologies and artificial intelligence contributes to economic growth, but it is necessary to understand the impact of new technologies on employment. The introduction of artificial intelligence will affect the laws of traditional economics. For example, according to the traditional Okun's law, employment and economic growth are consistent, but the introduction of artificial intelligence will change this law, so the target of money in the future will be more unemployed. Otherwise, on the one hand, it will affect the income distribution, on the other hand, it will affect one of the long-term goals in 2035 of "better life, all-round development of people, common prosperity of all people and more obvious substantive progress", and it will also affect the formation of a new development pattern.
Fifth, further improve the business environment and fill the shortcomings of regional differences in China's state-owned business environment. The business environment in China is constantly improving. In the 2022 Global Business Environment Report released by the World Bank, the ranking of China's business environment is 3 1, which is significantly higher than that in 2022. However, the ranking of China's GDP does not match the ranking of China's foreign direct investment FDI and ODI in the world, and there is still room for improvement. At the same time, the regional differences of state-owned business environment in China are still great. According to the research report of 2 1 century, Shenzhen, Shanghai and Guangzhou, which rank higher in China's state-owned business environment, score more than twice as much as those in the lower-ranking regions. Therefore, continuously improving the business environment is still an important means to improve the investment level.
Sixth, we should fully understand the importance of foreign countries and continue to expand and explore more active and diversified strategies. On the one hand, build a higher level pattern. After more than 40 years of continuous development, China's economy has been gradually embedded in the industrial chain division system. Import and export have a certain impact on economic growth, bringing market to China's economy and affecting China's technological progress. Foreign companies in China involve about 200 million people in employment, equivalent to about one-third of the total labor force. Although global economic growth has slowed down and trade protection has overlapped in recent years, we should stick to a more active strategy and expand diversified markets. To gradually rely on the traditional cycle, the "Belt and Road Initiative" will develop opportunities, and through in-depth cooperation with areas along the route, it will help to form a more balanced and diversified cycle system. On the other hand, speed up the construction of free trade zones and trade ports. Accelerating the construction of free trade pilot zone and free trade port is an important part of domestic double cycle. Promoting the construction and development of Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin and other free trade pilot zones and Hainan free trade port will help accelerate the formation of a new cycle.
Seventh, we should be more systematic in the new development model. First, the capital market should continue to strengthen macro-prudential management and take corresponding capital control measures to deal with market fluctuations caused by capital flows. Second, uncertainty causes exchange rate fluctuations and has an impact on the economy. In 2022, the exchange rate appreciated by 6.47%, and this year, the exchange rate has appreciated by 2.4%. It is suggested to take capital control measures to prevent the inflow of hot money. Third, the financial market should effectively implement the supply-side structural achievements, prevent financial risks from spreading to China, and at the same time guard against domestic financial risks. The fourth is to guard against debt risks. In recent years, the proportion of debt interest expenditure in fiscal expenditure has been increasing, which has put pressure on local finance. In the first half of this year, the expenditure on debt service was 400.8 billion yuan, up by 14.5% year-on-year, which was higher than the national general public budget expenditure (4.5%) and far higher than other kinds of financial expenditures. The proportion of interest in expenditure is 4.24 percentage points, which shows an upward trend in recent years.
Legal basis:
The Budget Law of the People's Republic of China (adopted by the Second Session of the Eighth National People's Congress on March 22, 2004 1994) was revised for the first time according to the Decision on Amending the Budget Law of the People's Republic of China adopted by the Tenth Session of the Standing Committee of the Twelfth NPC on August 3, 2004, and according to the Decision on Amending Five Laws