What is the current world pattern? What is the current world pattern? Political economy or social development, or scientific and technological development? Because of well-known reasons, I don't want to talk about the all-round world pattern, only about the trend of science and technology in 100.
The next 100 is a critical period, which will determine the future direction of mankind.
Now that the world is in turmoil, it is natural to ignore all kinds of ideological disputes. They will only evolve, adapt and use the laws according to the objective laws, which will be beneficial to the development of human society, destroy and violate the laws, and will be unfavorable to the development of human society.
In the past 100 years, due to more and more profound understanding of the objective laws of nature, science and technology have developed explosively, especially modern physics based on Einstein's theory of relativity and quantum mechanics, which has become the most important foundation of modern science and promoted the vigorous development of cosmology, earth science, climate and environment, biochemistry, brain science, genetic science and artificial intelligence.
However, because the development of human society has not necessarily followed the laws of nature for a long time, especially under the instigation of some politicians, the natural environment has been greatly destroyed. Especially in the past 100 years, the degree of environmental damage caused by human activities has far exceeded the cumulative sum of the past thousands of years, so the impact on the earth's climate and ecology has become increasingly serious, leading to the survival crisis of mankind. In the future 100, how to overcome this development bottleneck and get out of the survival dilemma will be the biggest task facing all mankind.
The biggest crisis is to deal with the deterioration of the environment and climate, and the chief culprit of this deterioration is the emission of greenhouse gases.
What are greenhouse gases?
The first person to study greenhouse gases was Jean-Baptist Joseph, a French mathematician and physicist. Fourier. 1820, he began to pay attention to how the earth gets heat energy. Before this, no scientist in the world has thought about or mentioned this problem. Fourier was once valued by Napoleon and was appointed as a local governor. Later, he was elected as an academician of the French Academy of Sciences and was made a baron.
Fourier made a lot of contributions in his life, and his works, such as the Propagation of Heat and the Analytic Theory of Heat, had a far-reaching impact on the development of mathematics and physics. His most famous conclusion is that the earth receives heat from the sun, but the heat reflected back into space is blocked by the atmosphere. The atmosphere is like a huge bell jar, with clouds and gas at the top. In this bell jar, enough heat is stored to make the earth warm and life can be bred and multiplied. These studies were published in 1824 in the form of an overview of the space temperature of the earth and its surface.
Fourier died in 1930. At that time, his research on greenhouse gases did not attract people's attention. It was not until the end of 19 that he began to be concerned by the scientific community and was regarded as the originator of greenhouse effect research. In fact, greenhouse gases have their positive effects. Without these greenhouse gases to protect the earth's temperature, the average temperature of the earth will drop to-18℃, and it is hard to say whether life suitable for life can be bred.
But the negative impact of more greenhouse gases on human beings can be imagined. Modern research believes that greenhouse gases are mainly gases in the atmosphere that can absorb long-wave radiation from the ground and re-emit radiation, such as water vapor (H? O), carbon dioxide (CO? ), nitrous oxide (n? O), freon, methane (CH? ) and so on. These gases, like the greenhouse bell described by Fourier, intercept solar radiation and warm indoor air, thus warming the earth. This effect is called. Greenhouse effect? .
Greenhouse gases will cause the average temperature of the earth to rise continuously, with serious consequences.
According to statistics, due to the emission and accumulation of greenhouse gases, the average temperature of the earth has increased by 0.6℃ since the 20th century 100. Don't underestimate the signs that the temperature of 0.6℃ has led to the melting of glaciers, the melting of ice sheets in the North and South Poles, the changes of ocean circulation and airflow, frequent extreme climate, frequent global forest fires, the continuous disappearance of tropical rainforests, the death of coral reefs and the rise of sea level. The temperature rise is still accelerating in this century.
If the rising trend of temperature is not contained, the consequences will be very serious, even related to human survival. Modern research believes that as long as the earth's temperature rises by 6℃, global extinction will inevitably come, and the ways of extinction are as follows:
Global sea level rises 100 meters, and coastal cities and low-altitude areas are all submerged. Extreme weather is frequent, droughts, floods, giant thunderstorms and freezing ravage the world, and the climate is out of control and unpredictable; The global environment has undergone fundamental changes. Some desert areas have become Wang Yang, and some oases have become deserts. Humans can only escape extinction through great migration. The extinction led to the rupture of the food chain, and the species in each chain were extinct one after another, and mankind could not escape the fate of extinction in the end.
This is by no means alarmist. Scientists from all over the world jointly issued two warning letters on this consequence, warning all mankind again and again: calling on human beings to change their way of life, protect and repair the destroyed natural ecological environment, reduce emissions, save resources, control fertility and save ourselves. However, the effect is minimal. 1992 after scientists signed the first warning letter, more than 30 years have passed, the population is still increasing at a high speed, species are still dying out, forests and fresh water are still decreasing, and glaciers are still melting. So I sent a second warning letter on 20 17, exclaiming: there is not much time left for us!
The world joined hands to deal with the crisis and formed a tripartite agreement.
The most effective measures to deal with climate change should be the three legally binding documents formed by the United Nations, namely, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.
Among the three documents, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is an overall document, which was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on May 9, 1992, entered into force on March 26, 2002,11994, and 150 countries signed it. The ultimate goal of the convention is to maintain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a safe and stable level.
Kyoto Protocol is a supplementary provision of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It was formulated by 1997 at the Third Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Kyoto, Japan in February, with the aim of making the stable control level of greenhouse gas content in the atmosphere more specific and detailed, with the goal of preventing serious climate change from causing harm to human beings.
The Paris Agreement is a more detailed document dealing with climate change after the above two documents, and it is a measure and requirement facing after 2020. The agreement was adopted at the Paris Climate Change Conference on February 5, 2065,438+02 and signed in new york on April 22, 20 16. The specific goal of this document is to control the global average temperature rise within 2℃ and strive to control it within 65438 0.5℃ by the end of this century.
Unfortunately, the good wishes of mankind are always difficult to realize.
Politicians in every country always paint a beautiful picture when delivering the State of the Union address, but in the process of implementation, it is a public face, because when it comes to specific implementation, wrangling becomes the norm. So is the United Nations response to climate change. The texts of various documents are very good, but when it comes to concrete implementation, the difficulty of negotiation is revealed.
Human beings are selfish animals, but in the negotiations between countries, selfishness is labeled as the country and the people, which makes it noble. When it comes to the goals of energy conservation and emission reduction in various countries, every country wants others to save more energy and emit less, while our country always wants to save less energy and emit more because of some difficulties. This seems to be bargaining for its own people, but in fact it is pushing the whole world into the abyss.
If the world goes into the abyss, no one in a country will be spared. That's easy to say, but come here often? Authorities? Just? Fans? Get up. As a result of wrangling, it is difficult to implement the indicators of the Paris Agreement, and the temperature control has not shown the expected effect. The withdrawal of the United States, the largest and strongest country in the world, cast a huge shadow on the existence and implementation of this agreement.
Some people think that it is difficult to achieve the goal of temperature control at the end of this century, and the increase is likely to exceed 3℃ or even higher. 3℃ is a threshold. What is the threshold? Is the tipping point, anything that reaches or exceeds a tipping point will get out of control. Scientists believe that if the global temperature rises above 3℃, extreme climate change will be out of control, and it is likely that the temperature will change sharply and global extinction will be inevitable.
Therefore, the key to the development of science and technology in 100 depends on whether human beings can control climate change, and whether the key key can achieve * * * and truly save energy and reduce emissions. If mankind can overcome the current development bottleneck and get a relaxed living environment, I think the scientific and technological development in 100 will exceed many people's imagination.
Science, technology and social outlook.
As mentioned earlier, scientific development has entered the fast lane. 1 year is equal to the past 10 year, 100 year is equal to the past 100 year or even 1000 year. 100? I think there will be subversive changes.
At present, science is trying to solve the top-level basic mysteries, including but not limited to such items as dark matter, dark energy, neutrinos, consciousness, genes, quantum singularities, human brain and nervous system. Cutting-edge technologies include but are not limited to controlled nuclear fusion, artificial intelligence, warp drive, etc. These projects are bound to make breakthroughs and progress in these 65,438+000 years. Therefore, there will be some changes in social life in 100:
There have been more major breakthroughs in gene decoding. Involved in human health from the genetic level, most of the existing intractable diseases and intractable diseases will be cured, human aging will be alleviated and life expectancy will be greatly extended. /kloc-people above 0/20 will no longer be dreams;
Aerospace has broken through the speed bottleneck and long-distance and long-term life support. Man has set up a base on the moon and turned it into the first alien tourist attraction. A base was established on Mars, and the first group of residents bred on Mars, and the transformation of Mars began. The starship driven by nuclear fusion has reached the speed of110, and the first expedition starship has gone to proxima centauri; Warp drive is still under development. Because of the huge energy required, it is likely to get solar energy from Dyson sphere before sailing.
Virtual technology has been greatly developed, and people can enjoy this kind of virtual travel and real experience in space at home or in some studios. This kind of experience is an all-round audio-visual sense of smell and touch, which is difficult to distinguish from the real situation; Therefore, a lot of human work will be carried out in virtualization, and even wars have been virtualized;
Artificial intelligence undertakes most of human work, and the main work of human beings will turn to high-end design and management;
The combination of brain research and quantum computer has made a breakthrough, realizing the storage, upload and transfer of consciousness. The first immortals who existed in ideology were born. They began to live in society by using computers as the carrier or by combining man and machine and cloning human beings, which has impacted and challenged social ethics and the future way of life of mankind.
Controlled nuclear fusion has become a universal energy source in human society, and the human energy crisis has been temporarily eliminated. Due to the exponential growth of technology and social demand for energy, mankind still needs to find more energy, and the dyson sphere project has entered the stage of feasibility study and preliminary design.
The social management system that matches the above-mentioned level of civilization has undergone fundamental changes, the existence of the family has been seriously challenged, and the relationship between the country and the world and the way of existence will also undergo earth-shaking changes.
These are just a few big changes in the framework, and real social changes will fill every corner of the details. If you were in love, would it still be like this? Many people may be immersed in virtual perfection, but they show disdain for the reality full of defects. However, human appearance has probably changed a lot. I can't imagine what it will be like now. Perhaps shortsightedness has become a fashion, and that kind of aesthetics is definitely not something we can understand or like now. But I don't believe that human beings will become like the above picture in the future 1000 years, because after 1000 years, human beings may have realized their conscious existence.
There is no strict scientific basis for the so-called broad sky, which is only for your pleasant reference.
That's it. Welcome to participate in the discussion. Thanks for reading.
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