There are two growth peaks for the elderly population over 65 years old. The first growth peak is from 20 18 to 2022, which is mainly the first "baby boom" in New China, during which it enters the aging period. The second growth peak was in 2027-2038, and the baby boomers entered the aging stage after the great famine.
Second, the aging population structure has changed, and the aging phenomenon has become increasingly prominent.
The elderly population is divided into young people under 80 years old and elderly people over 80 years old. From 20 19 to 2038, it is mainly the growth of young people, who account for about 2/3 of the elderly population. Since 20041,the number of very old people has increased rapidly, and the proportion will also increase rapidly.
Trend: from demographic dividend to population aging.
The characteristics of aging in China can not be separated from an important background, that is, the working-age population has been increasing and the total dependency ratio has been decreasing over the past 40 years since the reform and opening up. The total dependency ratio refers to the ratio of the elderly and children (0- 14 years old) who need to be raised to the working-age population, in other words, how many elderly and children a working-age population needs to raise.
Just entering the early stage of aging, on the whole, the dependency ratio of children has declined, but the proportion of the elderly has begun to rise. From the development trend of population, from 1960 to 2049, the total population reached its peak around 2029, and then began to decline.
However, our working-age population peaked as early as 20 12, and has been declining for several years. So the dependency ratio began to rise, that is, the number of people who need to be supported by each working population is rising.