It is expected that the easing policy will be revised again. It is expected that steady growth will be more implemented than overweight in the second half of the year, and the slope of economic recovery will begin to slow down. After the policy expectation is revised, the economic and corporate profit forecasts will be revised in turn, and institutional positions will enter a high level. After the disclosure of the fund's second quarterly report, it may increase psychological fluctuations and induce position adjustment.
First of all, under the multiple economic disturbances, the policy has remained strong. It is expected that the Politburo meeting at the end of the month will continue the previous tone, and there is limited room for further overweight. Secondly, the pace of real estate recovery began to slow down, and it still takes time for confidence to fully recover. The profit forecast of listed companies may face downward adjustment in the second half of the interim report. Overseas interest rate hikes may still exceed expectations, and the probability of entering recession next year will continue to increase. Finally, Public Offering of Fund's position was the highest in the past 15, and the active private placement position also entered the middle and high water level. The distribution of institutional positions is further concentrated, and the high-position industry is facing a short-term position adjustment game. In terms of allocation, it is suggested to continue to adhere to the balanced allocation of growth-oriented manufacturing, medicine and consumption, while short-term growth-oriented manufacturing is more biased towards semiconductors and military industry.
Guotai Junan Securities: Layout rather than holding money, growth rather than value.
Market adjustment is an opportunity for re-layout. It is difficult to see the systematic expected improvement in the sectors related to the economic cycle, and the growth mode will not switch to value, but will choose to grow back. Specifically, first, because the current macroeconomic policies and epidemic prevention and control policies have been relaxed compared with the first half of the year, the awareness of systemic risks has declined. Therefore, the adjustment of the stock market is to rearrange the rotation of the industry and find opportunities for profit, rather than simply considering holding money to wait and see. Second, the slow and weak economic recovery just shows that the structure of the stock market will be further divided. The differentiation of profit expectations among industries is widening, and it is difficult for the value sector highly related to the economic cycle to improve systematically in the short term, while the leading companies with high demand for scientific and technological growth and weak recovery structure have obvious profit advantages. On the contrary, callback is a better opportunity for stock layout, and callback chooses to grow.
Industry and investment theme: callback layout growth and tracking leading stocks, optimistic about new energy/military industry/new creation/liquor/hotel/medicine. In the next stage, the two major investment themes are expected to continue to get out of excess. The first category is the new scientific and technological economic growth stocks such as new energy, digital economy and automatic control under the background of transformation; The second category focuses on the track leading stocks with expanded competitive advantages and fully adjusted stock prices under the medium-term stock economy. Recommended: 1) High prosperity growth: electric vehicle/photovoltaic/wind power/military industry/computer innovation/digital industry; 2) Leading stocks of consumer medicine: liquor/hotels/pigs/medical devices/consumer medical care /CDMO.
CITIC Securities: Patience and Balanced Growth
The market entered the shock period from the unilateral repair period, which verified our previous judgment. Structurally, the new energy boom is expected to be maintained, but congestion is rising. Some consumer goods booms are expected to improve slightly, but the overall valuation is not attractive. The logic of marginal improvement of medical prosperity is not strong, but the institutions in the early stage continue to reduce funding. We believe that investors need to be patient at this stage. Relative gainers can consider balanced allocation and growth, while absolute gainers can consider neutral positions and wait for significant adjustment under external catalysis to increase structural beta; The economy is growing rapidly.
Balanced allocation of growth, specifically, we believe that medical and consumer growth stocks with stable or good economic expectations can be appropriately balanced on the main line of growth style. For the expectation of fundamental stability and the direction of benefiting from the downward cost, we should also consider increasing the allocation. Key industries: wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage, battery, military industry, food and beverage, medical service/medical beauty, etc.
China Merchants Securities: Two important meetings affect the trend and structure of A shares, and the third quarter is crucial.
There are two important meetings this week that may have an important impact on the direction and structure of A shares. First, the Politburo meeting in mid-year discussed the economy. At present, China's economy is in a critical window of stabilization and recovery, and the third quarter is crucial; In this Politburo meeting, the adjustment of economic growth rate in the second half of the year, the arrangement of steady growth, the policy guidance in the real estate field and the policy guidance for new trends in industries such as consumption may guide the important direction of A-share allocation in the second half of the year; Second, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July. As the inflation in the United States rebounded more than expected in June, it is a high probability event to raise interest rates at the interest rate meeting on July 27, but it is also possible that the 75BP Fed hawks will raise interest rates. After raising interest rates, the US bond yield and the US dollar index may enter a downward cycle, which is conducive to the future performance of A shares, especially to the valuation of high-booming industries.
In the second half of 2022, China's economy will enter a new credit cycle, while the global economy will enter a recession, and the yield of US bonds is expected to peak. A-shares will continue the previous trend, showing a volatile upward trend, and the possibility of further improvement of radic will be stepped out throughout the year. However, in the second half of the year, there will be two scenarios of industry allocation according to social integration and economic recovery. In the case of strong liquidity and weak recovery, the industry allocation will focus on independent prosperity trends and new industries, and areas such as pan-new energy are worthy of continuous exploration; If the actual effect of steady growth exceeds expectations and the growth rate of new social financing accelerates, it will be interpreted as the main line, and infrastructure chain, real estate chain and bank insurance are expected to perform better. Style will gradually evolve from small-cap growth to large-cap value.
Industrial Securities: The rising trend of the new army has not ended.
At present, there is no systemic risk in the market. According to the timing framework, the upward trend of the new army has not ended. 1) in the short term, with the market shock and style differentiation, the congestion of the new half army has dropped from a high level. Congestion is an important indicator, which is specially used to reflect the trading mood of popular tracks. After the sharp rise in May and June, the congestion of the new army has obviously rebounded from the bottom, which is the main reason for the recent stock price fluctuation. However, with the market shock and the differentiation of style rotation, the congestion pressure of the new half army has been released. 2) In the medium term, the interest rate of overseas American bonds fluctuated and fell, the domestic monetary environment was relaxed, and macro liquidity still supported the new army. Recently, the expectation of economic recession in the United States continues to heat up, and the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates weakens, which drives the interest rate of US debt to drop significantly. At the same time, domestic macro liquidity continues to remain loose, and the monetary condition index is currently at a high level in the past three years, and there is no tightening trend. 3) More importantly, the leading indicators also show that the rising trend of the new army is not over yet. Analysts predict that the revised strength will become an important indicator to describe the prosperity and profitability, which is unique in that it is 80 trading days ahead of the share price of the New Half Army. However, the current indicators show that the upward trend of the new half army is not over yet. Therefore, from the time frame, the upward trend of the new half army is not over yet.
In terms of configuration, we will focus on the new half army (photovoltaic modules/inverters/photovoltaic equipment, wind power, new energy vehicles, new materials for military industry, UHV transmission and distribution equipment) of Yao Jia Liquor (medicine, household appliances, household appliances and alcohol) with strong strength and economic recovery. In the medium and long term, the market style is expected to gradually return to technological growth. It is suggested to focus on six specialized innovation directions: 1) new energy sources (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, UHV, etc.) and 2) new information and communication technologies (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5G, etc. ), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, robots, advanced rail transit equipment, etc. ), and 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO.
GF Securities: The market experienced short-term twists and turns but did not change the upward trend, and continued to pay attention to the spread of domestic superior assets.
Short-term twists and turns will not change the medium-term trend, and we will continue to pay attention to the spread of domestic superior assets in combination with the interim report and the clue of fund allocation. Overseas is still in recession+austerity dilemma, and domestic recovery is slower than that in June. The four-quadrant framework constructed in our medium-term strategy is likely to continue to present a combination of rapid recession in the United States and slow recovery in China, and the short-term twists and turns in the A-share market will not change the medium-term trend.
Combined with the forecast clues of the mid-year report and the allocation congestion of the fund's second quarterly report, we will maintain the judgment that the growth style is dominant under market changes and continue to pay attention to China's advantageous assets; Along with the characteristics of economic recovery, production first (manufacturing) and life later (consumption), China's advantageous assets will also spread from manufacturing advantages to consumption advantages: (1) consumption (food and beverage/household appliances/wholesale and retail social services) benefiting from post-epidemic recovery and PPI-CPI transmission; (2) Manufacturing industries with prosperous advantages (including new energy vehicles/photovoltaic modules/coal); (3) Restrictive policies turn to marginal easing (Internet media/innovative drugs/real estate leaders).
Essence Securities: In the short term, it is still a liquidity logic, and the shock center of the market outlook moves up.
The market continues to play repeatedly between fundamental recovery and liquidity logic. From April 27 to mid-June, supported by the improvement of liquidity logic and risk appetite, small and medium-sized stocks ushered in a round of rising market; From late June to mid-July, the market trading logic was biased towards fundamentals and recovery expectations, and the small and medium-sized market came to an end. Since mid-July, due to the repeated domestic epidemics and the decline in overseas demand, the market's prediction of fundamentals has moved closer from expectations to reality, and the fear of tightening domestic liquidity has gradually disappeared. Small and medium-sized stocks have once again opened up the surplus market.
Under the combined effect of weak economic recovery and good liquidity, small and medium-sized stocks such as CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 continued to outperform the broader market. In the future, we need to pay attention to the verification of macro-fundamental data, and the economic recovery can meet market expectations, so the market will naturally transition from liquidity logic to recovery expectation trading logic.
To sum up, the trend of weak economic recovery is relatively clear. We maintain the idea of volatile market, but realize the market outlook judgment of moving up in the shock, and emphasize again that at this stage, strong performance is the last word. Superior industries: automobile (auto parts), medicine, digital intelligence (machine vision, industrial automation), energy storage, photovoltaic, food and beverage, military industry, agrochemical, aquaculture, infrastructure.
Huaan Securities: From Disagreement to Understanding, Focus on Two Main Lines
Recently, market differences have gradually increased. First, differences on the annual growth target; Second, differences on the direction of the real estate industry; The third is the disagreement on the sustainability of the new energy industry. With the convening of the Politburo meeting and the recent shock adjustment, these differences are expected to gradually narrow and reach an understanding.
Therefore, it is suggested to grasp two main lines with strong certainty, high cost performance and supporting prosperity: first, pay attention to the real estate chain with deterministic reversal in the medium term of fundamentals, and give priority to automobiles, household appliances and houses catalyzed by downstream real estate policies; Building materials such as cement, glass and steel in the upstream of real estate, and developers and service providers in the middle of real estate still need to wait for the improvement of the prosperity. The second is to repair the main line after the epidemic, focusing on food and beverage with resilient demand, high stage prosperity and low valuation.
Bank of China Securities: The adjustment window is about to close, and the small-cap market may start.
With the confirmation of bottom profit of 22Q2 and the macro background of continuous downward PPI, the market of small-cap companies represented by CSI 1000 may start. Pay close attention to the logic of the Fed's interest rate hike this week. Risk appetite will boost commodity prices and the rebound of US stocks, forming a more positive overseas environment for A shares; At home, pay attention to the forward-looking guidance of policies to the macro-economy in the second half of the year. In particular, the policy of stabilizing expectations and stabilizing domestic demand is to resolve the tail risk of market concern. We reiterate that the A-share adjustment window is about to close, the style pays attention to high economic growth, and the small market value style may have excess returns.
The growth direction of small market value is expected to obtain excess returns. The main judgment logic is: 1) From the positioning point of view, the domestic short cycle will be from the late recession to the early expansion in the second half of the year. At this stage, the high prosperity and profit elasticity of performance will become the focus of market attention, and high growth factors will prevail. Referring to the performance of market style after the bottom of 20Q 1 profit, the growth style has significant excess returns, and the market value style has the characteristics of rotating from large market value to small market value. 2) From the perspective of performance reversal elasticity, small-cap companies have small equity, high leverage and symmetrical performance fluctuations. In the 22-year interim report, the performance of listed companies in CSI 1000 performance grouping fell sharply beyond the index. However, with reference to the Q2 performance reversal period of 20 years, the performance elasticity of the small market value group in the profit rising stage is obviously greater than that of the large market value group.
Yuekai Securities: It is unlikely that the index will fall sharply in the short term, waiting for a new round of trend opportunities.
On the whole, despite the market disturbance, the index rose rapidly at the end of last Friday, indicating that the overall atmosphere of the market is improving, and it is unlikely that the index will fall sharply in the short term. Investors are advised to wait for a new round of trend opportunities driven by policy dividends and incremental funds, give priority to certain sectors in the short term, and pay attention to two main lines in configuration.
First, pay attention to the investment opportunities of the China Daily with performance exceeding expectations. Judging from the disclosure of the performance forecast of the interim report, the performance certainty of the basic chemical, electronic and power equipment sectors is relatively stronger. Subsequent profitability is expected to become an important driving force of the market. Investors are advised to start from the performance and pay attention to the sectors where the performance of the interim report exceeds expectations and the valuation level is in a reasonable range. Second, some consumer stocks with large declines in the previous period have low-sucking opportunities. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, summer tourism has a warming trend. Qunar. com According to com data, the number of tickets booked in national scenic spots nearly tripled in July. In addition, various measures to stimulate consumption will show results in the second half of the year, and the performance of listed companies of various consumer goods is expected to rebound first, so they can pay attention to the high-quality consumption targets that have been greatly adjusted in the near future.
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