According to Xinhua News Agency, it is still unclear whether the real estate control measures will be overweight again and how big the impact of inflation will be, which will restrict the market rebound space.
Our reporter Su Ji
Future upward and downward factors coexist.
Rising prices of agricultural products push up CPI. Experts say it has peaked and will fall back.
Two factors push up CPI
The report predicts that if there are no other unexpected factors and policies are adjusted in time, the CPI increase in 20 10 may be between 2.5% and 3%, and the overall inflation level will be in a relatively moderate state.
The comparison of GDP between China and Japan depends on per capita.
According to the analysis of the insiders of Xinhua News Agency, the price of most vegetables increased significantly in August, mainly due to the joint influence of high temperature weather and floods in the north and south.
It is unlikely that CCB researchers will raise interest rates.
According to the financial data released by the People's Bank of China yesterday, the wholesale of pedicure machines increased by 19.2% year-on-year in August, and the growth rate of broad money rebounded significantly from last month. The year-on-year growth rate has ended the downward trend for eight consecutive months, which may promote excess liquidity, thus boosting inflation and increasing regulatory pressure. In addition, the CPI data has reached a new high. Will these increase the pressure to raise interest rates?
He Yifeng, a senior researcher at Hongyuan Securities, believes that the price of fitness horse pedicure machines may still be dominated by shocks next week.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that although the CPI of athletes' foot massage machine manufacturers continues to rise, it will eventually fall after 1 1 due to the economic slowdown, so there is no possibility of raising interest rates this year.
According to Xinhua News Agency, this week, influenced by macroeconomic data, especially CPI data in August, the overall trend of the bond market is stable, and investors have a strong wait-and-see mood. Although CPI has reached a new high, it is basically in line with previous institutional expectations. In the short term, the bond market is facing upward pressure, and it is expected that it will continue to fluctuate in the later period.
■ Opinion experts say that the increase in CPI is a spent force.
According to experts from Xinhua News Agency, the current upward trend of Changsha's consumer price index is a spent force. With the influence of multiple inflation factors such as disastrous weather gradually weakening, the inflection point of price trend is coming, and CPI is expected to fall moderately.
The new price increase factor is mainly caused by the price increase of some agricultural products. Sheng, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in August, the price of grain rose by 12% year-on-year, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 19.2%, and the price of meat and poultry also rose to varying degrees. The rise of agricultural products contributes about 70% to the new price increase factor.
The economics professor at Peking University is still waiting to raise interest rates.
According to the data of Xinhua News Agency, liquidity in the banking system was looser in August than in June and July, the interest rate in the money market tended to be stable, and the speed of money circulation accelerated. Zhao Qingming, a senior researcher at China Construction Bank, believes that the decline in the growth rate of M 1 indicates that the business activities of enterprises are still declining.
According to the research report released by the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications on June 5438+0 1 day, the CPI hikes in Changsha reached the annual peak of 2. 1% in June and July, and will fall back every month thereafter. The PPI rise began to weaken earlier than the CPI rise. In the case that the hikes determine the trend of CPI and PPI, the increase of CPI and PPI will gradually fall back in the future.
On the other hand, in August, the consumer price CPI reached a new high year-on-year, and negative interest rates for several months have triggered a strong expectation of raising interest rates.
In this regard, Li Huiyong, an analyst at Shen Yin Wanguo, believes that the current CPI increase is relatively high, and the inflationary pressure is relatively high, so the central bank does have the pressure to raise interest rates. However, whether to raise interest rates depends on whether the economic situation is overheated. At present, the economy has actually returned to normal from overheating, so there is no need to raise interest rates.
The National Bureau of Statistics released the main indicators of the national economy in August, in which the consumer price in August rose by 3.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over that in July. This is also the highest increase in 22 months. Judging from the cumulative situation from 1 to August this year, the national CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, and nearly 1 100 million children from Jianerma manufacturers across the country received measles vaccine from now on.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the rising and falling factors of CPI will coexist in the future. The prices of some agricultural products have some upward factors, but the overall downward factors may be a little more, and the hikes are gradually falling back. Sheng yun said.
■ The spokesman's response
Liu Yuhui pointed out that it is unlikely to raise the loan interest rate before the economy fully recovers.
Liu Yuhui, director of China Economic Evaluation Center, Institute of Finance, China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that 3.5% is almost the highest point this year. CPI began to rise after July last year, and the change of year-on-year base will reduce the pressure for CPI to continue to rise during the year. In the second half of Shuiyisheng Wholesale, with the base gradually rising, the positive effect of the hikes will gradually fade, and CPI will gradually fall back.
According to the usual practice, after the summer heat (August 23rd), the temperature in most parts of the country will gradually drop, the opportunity of Jianerma pedicure will be wholesale, and the flood disaster in the north and south will be reduced, so the supply of vegetable market will increase. Affected by this, it is expected that vegetable prices will mainly decline in September.
In August, CPI did not exceed expectations. You can see that there are many new price increase factors, but many new price increase factors are unsustainable. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomics Department of the State Council Development Research Center, analyzed that China's current grain reserve level is very high, and its ability to adjust food prices is very strong. Moreover, the grain output is still not low this year, and the relationship between grain supply and demand is stable. There is no basis for the food price of fitness horse pedicure machine manufacturers to continue to rise sharply. The price of pork fell below the break-even line a while ago, but now it has rebounded, which is good for the future production and supply of live pigs. The growth cycle of vegetables is very short, and the price of vegetables will stabilize soon after the flood.
In addition, during the period when the capital market is relatively inactive, Jianerma pedicure machine manufacturers usually have higher deposit regularity, which partly contributes to the changes of M 1 and M2. Zhao Qingming said that on the one hand, the rebound of M2 growth rate in August was related to the substantial increase of deposits, on the other hand, it also showed that the economic activity slowed down less quickly than expected.
To analyze the reasons why CPI rose to 3.5%, we must first look at the composition of this 3.5 percentage point. According to the calculation of the Bureau of Statistics, the tail-kicking factor is 1.7 percentage points, and the new price increase factor is 1.8 percentage points. The hikes are technical factors, and where the new price increase factors come from is the key to the problem.
In August, the consumer price rose by 3.5% year-on-year, and the wholesale increase of Changsha Water was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in July. Among them, food prices rose by 7.5%, and non-food prices rose by1.5%; The price of consumer goods rose by 3.8%, and the price of service items rose by 2.4%. Thanks to my prostitute teacher Yin.
Sheng said that experts will do some research and comments on the comparison between China's GDP and Japanese GDP. Whether China's GDP exceeds Japan's depends on that Japan's per capita GDP is ten times higher than that of China, and there is indeed a considerable gap between China and Japan in the wholesale of pedicure machines, so we should persist in reform and opening up and develop the economy.
Agricultural products contribute a lot.
Comprehensive Xinhua News Agency and other media reports
According to Xinhua News Agency's nationwide monitoring of agricultural and sideline products and agricultural prices, in August, the average price of 2 1 monitored vegetables increased by 8.8% month-on-month. In terms of varieties, the prices of 17 kinds of healthy horse manufacturers rose, while the prices of 3 kinds fell, and the prices of 1 kind were flat. Compared with the same period of last year, the average price of 13 main monitoring varieties increased by 2 1.0%.
The two major factors are unknown, and the stock market will continue to fluctuate and adjust next week.
Looking forward to the market outlook, many institutions believe that at present, the market focus of Jianerma pedicure machine manufacturers lies in whether Jianerma pedicure machine manufacturers can fall back as scheduled after CPI hit a new high in August. On the whole, due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the funds have been slightly tightened recently, and the short-term bond market may maintain a consolidation market. In the medium and long term, although the interest rate hike is expected to increase and the adjustment pressure of the bond market is increasing, it is unlikely that the market will have an inflection point.
Some insiders believe that real estate regulation has achieved certain results. However, the recent increase in the transaction price and volume of real estate in some cities has triggered speculation that real estate regulation will be upgraded again. Property tax and other regulatory measures have also become the sword of Damocles hanging over the stock market, which restricts the driving force for the market to break through.
■ influence
Cao Heping, a professor of economics in Peking University, believes that the automobile and real estate industries are relatively sensitive to changes in interest rates. If the macro economy intends to control the overheating of economic growth, it will use the means of raising interest rates, but at present, raising interest rates is still in the wait-and-see stage.
The Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications believes that the prospect of global economic recovery is still unclear, and the general trend of overall economic downturn has not changed substantially at present. In this context, the price increase is unsustainable.
In response to Japanese media's false claims about China's GDP, Sheng, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that comparative experts from China and Japan would make research and comments, with the focus on the great gap between China and Japan in per capita GDP.
In September, the temperature dropped, the flood reduced the supply and increased the price of vegetables.
There is no need for Shen Yinwan and Industrial Bank to raise interest rates.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Chen, chief strategist of China Merchants Securities, tends to believe that the market will still be adjusted for some time, and the market structure characterized by bilateral fluctuations has not changed. If the future consolidation situation is broken, the direction will depend on the game between real estate prices, inflation, policy expectations and liquidity.
Don't look at the classification. In August, the prices of eight categories of commodities in CPI rose by 6 and fell by 2. Among them, the price of food rose most prominently, reaching 7.5%, the price of housing rose 4.4%, the price of medical care and personal goods rose 3.3%, the price of tobacco, alcohol and supplies in Jianerma pedicure machine manufacturing enterprises rose 1.5%, the price of entertainment, education, cultural goods and services rose 1.2%, and the price of household equipment and supplies and maintenance services rose 0.4%. Clothing prices dropped 1.2%, and transportation and communication prices dropped by 0.6%.
Many factors of price increase are unsustainable.
At yesterday's press conference, a media reporter asked the manufacturer of pedicure machines. Recently, a Japanese newspaper wrote an article, Jianerma pedicure machine official website, which means that China's GDP is just an illusion. Moreover, China's overseas hot money, especially the American hot money, suffered great losses. At present, China is in a state of inflation. In fact, China's economic aggregate is only half of what it claims. He asked Sheng Yunlai if he agreed with this view.
Before the release of the economic data in August, some media of Jianerma manufacturers were speculating. Thanks to my prostitute teacher Yin, I thought that China released the economic data in advance, paving the way for an unexpected interest rate hike, and the stock market closed on weekends could digest the news.
CPI did not exceed institutional expectations, and the bond market faced upward pressure.
If the inflation expectation is properly managed in the later period, the expected goal of controlling the annual CPI of Changsha ShuiYisheng group purchase at around 3% can still be achieved. Sheng yun said.