First of all, in terms of total investment, it is predicted that the total investment of the three major operators in China on 5G is expected to exceed one trillion, which is more than 60% higher than that in the 4G era. The investment proportion of each industrial chain link is different, among which communication network equipment accounts for the largest proportion, close to 40%, and the investment proportion of base station antenna, radio frequency, optical cable and optical module is 3%, 10.6%, 3.3% and 4.6% respectively.
Antenna and RF module are the first to benefit, and the concentration is expected to increase.
Antenna and RF module account for about 3% and 10.6% of the total investment of 5G respectively, and the total investment is about 41600 million and147.2 billion yuan respectively. Based on the key assumptions of the number of 5G base stations (the number of macro stations and small stations is 3.2 million and 6.4 million respectively, the antenna price of macro stations and small stations is 3,000 yuan/pair and/kloc-0,000 yuan/pair respectively, and the single set price of RF module of macro stations and small stations is/kloc-0,000 yuan/set and 4,000 yuan/set respectively), the antenna and RF module are calculated prospectively.
At the same time, compared with 2G/3G/4G, we split the investment rhythm of 5G antenna RF, and roughly estimated the investment in each year during 5G. Looking into the future, I believe that 2020-2022 will be the peak period of antenna and RF investment, and the investment during this period will be about 32 billion yuan and1160 billion yuan respectively.
Communication network equipment: the largest proportion of investment
Communication network equipment accounts for nearly 40% of the total investment of 5G, and the total investment will exceed 500 billion yuan. Communication network equipment is the core link of mobile communication system, which mainly includes wireless, transmission, core network and service bearing support system equipment. According to estimates, the investment in communication network equipment in 4G system exceeds 400 billion yuan. Looking forward to the future, it is expected that the 5G network architecture based on SDN/NFV reconfiguration will form two parts: hardware devices and software-defined solutions, and further price reduction will be achieved. However, the overall investment is expected to increase by 30% due to the obvious increase in the number of base stations carrying services and support compared with 4G.
The peak period of investment is 2020-2023, and it will reach its peak in 202 1 year. As the core link of 5G investment, communication network equipment has a long investment cycle. It is expected that there will be a large-scale investment in the first four years of 5G construction. With the increase of macro stations and small stations, it is expected to reach a peak in 20021year.
Optical fiber cable for wireless network: demand improvement
Wireless network optical cable accounts for about 3.3% of the total investment of 5G, with a total investment of about 40.04 billion yuan. The optical cable layout requirements of 5G wireless base station are divided into two parts: forward transmission network and backhaul network. Forward transmission network part: it is estimated that each macro station needs 2KM optical fiber, uses 48-core optical cable and has 3.2 million base stations; Small stations need 1kM optical fiber, 24-core optical cable and 6.4 million base stations. At the same time, it is necessary to fully consider the scrap rate of the existing base station optical fiber network. It is assumed that the fiber scrap rate of existing macro stations is 40%, and that of existing small stations is 80%. Backhaul network: In the deployment mode of C-RAN, according to the centralized convergence calculation of 20 base stations, the 144 core optical cable is used to backhaul about 3 kilometers to access convergence layer, and the scrap rate is calculated as 30%. Then the number of optical fibers needed for the forward transmission network part is 245.76 million core kilometers, and the number of optical fibers needed for the backward transmission network part is 62.208 million core kilometers.
To sum up, the forward transmission+backward transmission network needs a total of 308 million core kilometers, which is calculated according to the average price of ordinary optical cable per core kilometer 130 yuan. Estimated total investment: 308 million yuan * 130 yuan = 40.04 billion yuan, and the peak period of investment is 2020-2022.
Optical module: It is expected to become the most flexible link of 5 G.
Optical modules account for about 4.6% of the total investment of 5G, and the total investment will exceed 60 billion yuan. Optical modules are being upgraded at a high speed, mainly due to the substantial increase of 5G antenna channels and the explosive growth of data traffic in application scenarios. Compared with the 4G era, the investment growth driven by the upgrade of optical modules has been greatly improved in quantity and price, and it is one of the most flexible industrial chain links in the 5G era.
Due to the requirement of low latency, the traditional BBU is divided into two parts in the 5G era: DU (distributed unit) and CU (centralized unit). The forward-looking and reasonable assumption is that the convergence ratio of macro station (small station), DU and CU is macro station (small station): DU: CU = 36 (120):12:1,so it is estimated that there will be17/kloc-in the 5G era. According to the average market price of optical modules in all aspects, it is estimated that the total market size of optical modules is 63.6 billion yuan.
Network planning and operation: The cost is expected to be the same as that of 4G.
In the 5G era, network planning and operation accounted for about 9.4% of the total investment, and the investment scale was basically the same as that of 4G, with a slight increase. Although the architecture of 5G network is much more complicated than that of 4G, the total number of base stations increases and the business complexity also increases, but the trend of centralization and intelligence is obvious. In the future, centralization and intelligence will effectively reduce the cost of network planning and operation, so the investment scale of 5G network planning and operation cannot be greatly improved. Based on the increase of 10%, the investment scale of 5G is about130 billion yuan.
Network planning and operation are generally divided into two investment stages. The early stage is the network planning stage, and the investment window is 20 19 and 2020; The later stage is the network operation and maintenance stage, and the investment window period is mainly from 2022 to 2025.
Generally speaking, key devices such as antenna, RF and optical module benefit first, and communication network equipment benefits the most. However, with the improvement of the network foundation, the demand for system integration, industry solutions and big data applications will benefit for a long time.
The above data sources refer to the Forecast of the Development Prospect of China's 5G Industry and the Analysis Report of Investment Opportunities in Industrial Chain issued by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.