Analysis of China's PVC production capacity and output
2006~2007 is the two years of high growth of investment in China's PVC industry, investors from outside the industry have rushed into the PVC industry, which makes PVC production capacity to get rapid growth. The reason, the industry can be so attracted to invest in the height of the reasons are several aspects, one is the international crude oil prices continue to rise, resulting in oil and gas for the route of the PVC method of price escalation, while the domestic calcium carbide method of the route of the price is relatively low, very competitive market advantage, profits higher than the industry average; Secondly, with the rapid development of the domestic construction industry in recent years, the synthetic resin materials, especially the demand for PVC Secondly, with the rapid development of the domestic construction industry in recent years, the demand for synthetic resin materials, especially PVC, has been growing rapidly, resulting in increased demand in the downstream market; thirdly, the market demand for the five major general-purpose resins in the domestic market has continued to surge, but the price of oil and gas routes is high, as a substitute for the PVC has become an ideal choice; fourthly, some coal chemical enterprises see the prospects for higher returns on investment in the downstream market to extend the product industry chain, and to obtain a better return on investment.
The average annual growth rate of PVC consumption from 1990 to 2003 reached 18.7%, and the average annual growth rate of PVC production capacity from 1998 to 2003 was as high as 20.4%
One, the overall situation of domestic synthetic resins
(A) the production of sustained, rapid and stable growth
In 2007, the production of China's synthetic resin industry continued to grow rapidly. Rapid growth in 2007, the annual output of 30.736 million tons, an increase of 18.5% over the previous year, a slight increase over the previous year (see the table below), is the world's second largest producer of synthetic resins, second only to the United States. Among them, PVC production reached 9.717 million tons, an increase of 19.8%; with China Sea Shell, Huizhou ethylene project put into operation, the other in Jihua, Daqing ethylene conversion and expansion formally put into operation, polyethylene production reached 6.925 million tons, an increase of 16.1%; in the case of Hainan Refinery, Maoming Petrochemical, Dalian Petrochemical polypropylene and other production units to expand, polypropylene production reached 7.127 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%; polystyrene production reached 3.003 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; ABS production of 1.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%.
2000 to 2007, China's synthetic resin average annual growth rate of up to 15.6%. It is expected that by 2010, China's synthetic resin production will continue to grow rapidly at an average annual growth rate of about 15%.
(B) production capacity is mainly concentrated in the east coast
At present, in the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, only Tibet has no synthetic resin production. Synthetic resin production capacity is mainly concentrated in East China, Central and South China, North China and Northeast China, of which seven provinces and cities in East China accounted for more than 43% of the country's total production capacity, followed by Central and South China and North China, accounting for 18.2% and 14.8%, respectively, and Northeast China accounted for 11.1%. The four regions together accounted for 87.1% of the country's total production capacity, which means that more than 80% of the country's synthetic resin production capacity is concentrated in the eastern coastal region.
(C) the enterprise scale continues to expand, industrial concentration has increased
Statistics show that in 2007 China's synthetic resin production enterprises **** 600, with a total output of 30.736 million tons. Among them, Sinopec and PetroChina's two major group companies produced 15.056 million tons, accounting for about 50% of the country's total output, occupying half of the country.
From the point of view of enterprise development, in 2004, the annual output of 500,000 tons or more than 4 enterprises, 1 million tons or more than 1 enterprise; in 2005 the output of 500,000 tons or more than enterprises rose to 5, 1 million tons or more than 2 enterprises; 2006 500,000 tons or more than enterprises jumped to 9, an increase of 80% year-on-year growth, and annual output of 1 million tons or more than the development of the enterprise to 3.
While China's synthetic resin large-scale enterprises more and more, the output is also more and more, but the proportion of the country has not seen a rise, and a slight downward trend. According to statistics, the top 10 enterprises and production accounted for 33.3% of the total national output in 2004, 32.2% in 2005 and 31.7% in 2006. This situation shows that in the development of large enterprises at the same time, the majority of small and medium-sized enterprises are also seizing the opportunity to grow their own, but also predicts that the future market competition will be further intensified, the enterprise reorganization and mergers and acquisitions will become more active, part of the small and medium-sized enterprises will be eliminated.
Two, PVC production capacity analysis
China's chlor-alkali industry since 2004 has been maintaining a good momentum of development, although the aftereffects of the expansion of production and expansion of energy from this year onwards, but the production capacity is still a relatively large increase in production capacity, according to China Chlor-alkali preliminary statistics, by the end of 2006, China's total production capacity of PVC reached 11.58 million tons, of which the proportion of calcium carbide method has been close to 70%. The proportion of calcium carbide has been close to 70%.
In 2005, the national PVC output was 6.492 million tons, an increase of 27.6% over 2004. Among them, the output of raw material route using ethylene method was about 1.2 million tons, accounting for 18.5% of the total output, with a slight increase compared with 890,000 tons in 2004; the output of raw material route using imported monomer and EDC was about 1.19 million tons, accounting for 18.3% of the total output, with a slight increase compared with 1.15 million tons in 2004; the output of raw material route using calcium carbide acetylene method was about 4.102 million tons, accounting for 63.2% of the total output. 63.2% of the total output, compared with 2.99 million tons in 2004, a substantial increase. The calcium carbide method still dominates. Since 2003, the international oil prices have risen sharply, so that the ethylene method of PVC cost increases, while the production of calcium carbide method is less affected by this, leading to a new round of domestic calcium carbide method of PVC production plant construction boom, so that the calcium carbide method of PVC production capacity to expand dramatically, the production of PVC on the ethylene method to form a great challenge to the ethylene method of production of PVC, many of the ethylene method of enterprises at the brink of loss.
In 2007, China's PVC production capacity of 12.08 million tons / year, an increase of 24.5%, the output of 8.238 million tons, an increase of 23.3%, the self-sufficiency rate of about 90%, in China's general-purpose resins, the highest self-sufficiency rate. 2000-2006, China's PVC production capacity at an average annual growth rate of 19.8%, the production of an average annual growth rate of 23%, the five major synthetic resins in the faster growth rate. Five synthetic resins in the faster growth rate of varieties, second only to ABS.
Three, polyvinyl chloride production analysis
(A) 2006 PVC production of major producers
2006 months of China's total output of 8.24 million tons of PVC, of which 2.3 million tons of production of ethylene, calcium carbide production of 5.94 million tons of production of calcium carbide production has been more than 70%.
As of 2006, China's PVC manufacturers **** more than 130, the output of more than 100,000 tons of 27, more than 200,000 tons of 10 (see table below). The sum of the output of the first 27 is 5.606 million tons, accounting for 68% of the total output. In general, China's average size of PVC is still small, mainly by the number of enterprises to win.
In recent years, China's polyvinyl chloride plant size level is improving, but still less than the international average. At present, China's average size of PVC production units less than 100,000 tons / year, while the average size of the international polyvinyl chloride device 15 to 200,000 tons / year, the largest device size of more than 1 million tons / year. Developed countries such as the United States, the average device size of 300,000 tons / year, compared with the gap is even greater, the average size of Japan's PVC device for 150,000 tons / year.
China's PVC production in 2006, the top ten ranking of the situation has not changed much, only Cangzhou Chemical due to the ethylene method of production units throughout the year is basically in a state of shutdown and fell out of the top ten, replaced by Xinjiang Tianye. Xinjiang region enterprises rely on its cost and energy advantages, the rapid development of the future will be China's calcium carbide PVC in a force to be reckoned with. Tianjin Dagu this year, the completion of the expansion, production capacity of 700,000 tons, the enterprise's output this year also jumped over the Qilu Petrochemical (600002, the bar) to become the country's largest producer.
(B) 2007 PVC regional production analysis
In 2007, China's overall macro situation is good, China's PVC industry to maintain a good momentum of development, the production of various producers increased significantly, according to the China Petroleum (601857, Bar) and Chemical Industry Association released statistics, China's total PVC production of 9.717 million tons, compared with the same period last year, the total production of 8.111 million tons increased by 19% year-on-year. 8.111 million tons year-on-year growth of 19.8 percent.
National production in all regions of the same period last year, there is a relatively significant increase, especially in Northwest, Southwest, Central China, North China, mainly because of the rapid expansion of calcium carbide method in the above areas, the output increased rapidly. East China, North China is still the main source of PVC in China, the above two areas of production reached a total of about 60% of the country, while the Northwest region, although the number of enterprises is relatively small, but by virtue of its advantages in the development of chlor-alkali industry has a tendency to later catch up.
(C) 2007 PVC provincial production analysis
PVC production in 2007 ranked the top 10 provinces have a relatively large increase in production, Shandong and Tianjin region is China's largest PVC production of provinces and municipalities, the Shanghai region as a result of the only Shanghai Chlor-Alkali a producer, but also with the high price of crude oil this year, the ethylene method of production enterprises face greater difficulties, this year's production has been reduced, has been the largest production of PVC.
This year's production has been reduced, has slipped from the sixth place in the 2005 production ranking to outside the top ten.
Four, 2007-2008 China's PVC production expansion
While the momentum of China's PVC production expansion slowed down in 2007-2008, but there is still a relatively large number of production capacity increase, but the number of expansion in 2008 has been significantly less than in 2006, 2007, according to preliminary statistics, the number of new construction after 2008 is less. According to preliminary statistics, the number of new construction after 2008 is relatively small, with the increase in demand, the entire PVC market is expected to gradually restore the balance of supply and demand.
China's economic development on the demand for PVC
This year, the reform and opening up and modernization has made new progress, the national economy to maintain sustained, rapid and healthy development of the momentum, the overall situation is better than expected, or better than the previous year. Preliminary estimates, the first three quarters, the gross domestic product was 7168.2 billion yuan, at comparable prices, an increase of 7.9% over the same period last year, accelerated by 0.3 percentage points, of which, the primary industry added value of 895.9 billion yuan, an increase of 3.0%; the secondary industry 3,816.8 billion yuan, an increase of 10.0%; the tertiary industry of 24,555.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.6%. The main features of the economic development are:
1. The economic growth rate is picking up slightly quarter by quarter. Under the dual role of the national policy of expanding domestic demand and market-driven, and driven by both domestic and international factors***, the stability of China's economic growth has been enhanced so far this year. Compared with the same period last year, the economy grew by 7.6% in the first quarter, 8% in the second quarter, and 8.1% in the third quarter, and industrial production, market sales, and import and export trade also showed a trend of accelerated growth quarter by quarter. This shows that the foundation of China's economic growth has been further consolidated.
2. Agricultural production is growing steadily in the midst of structural adjustment. The area under grain cultivation continues to be reduced, the proportion of high-quality agricultural products (000061, stock bar) increases, and the regional layout is further optimized. Despite the summer grain, early rice production, but the autumn grain harvest, the annual grain production recovery growth is expected to reach 457.5 million tons, an increase of 1.1% over the previous year. Of the major cash crops, cotton (information, quotes), oilseed production will be reduced, but sugar, vegetables, fruit production continued to increase, animal husbandry, fisheries production also continued to develop steadily.
3, industrial production in accelerating structural adjustment in rapid growth. In the first three quarters, the country's industrial added value of 224.87 billion yuan, an increase of 12.2% over the same period last year. All kinds of ownership of industrial growth. Among them, state-owned and state-controlled enterprises grew by 10.8%, collective enterprises by 8.8%, joint-stock enterprises by 13.5%, and "three-funded" enterprises by 12.7%. Heavy industry production grew slightly faster than light industry. In the first three quarters, heavy industry grew by 12.3% and light industry by 12.0%. Product structure adjustment continues to accelerate, investment products, high-tech products and new consumer products to adapt to the upgrading of the consumer structure to maintain rapid growth in the production of new consumer goods, becoming the main force driving rapid growth in industrial production. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of six major industries, including electronic communication equipment manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing, chemical industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, metallurgy and textile, to the growth of industry above designated size reached 53.2%. Industrial enterprises realized export delivery value of 1,391 billion yuan, up 21 percent year-on-year, contributing nearly one-fifth to industrial growth.
4, the rapid growth of fixed asset investment. In the first three quarters, the whole society fixed asset investment completed 2583.8 billion yuan, up 21.8%. Among them, the state-owned and other types of economic investment in fixed assets increased by 24.3%, collective and individual investment increased by 18.0%, showing a good trend of accelerated growth. In the state-owned and other types of fixed asset investment, capital investment growth of 24.6%, upgrading investment growth of 16.3%, real estate development investment growth of 29.4%. Sub-regionally, East, Central and West investment basically achieved synchronized growth. Among them, investment in East and Central China increased by 22.9% and 25.3% respectively, while investment in West China increased by 25.2%. Investment in agriculture and water conservancy, infrastructure, industrial investment and various new service industries maintained steady growth.
5, the domestic market running smoothly. In the first three quarters, total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to RMB 2,911.1 billion, up 8.7% year-on-year. Excluding the price factor, the real growth rate was 10.2%. Among them, total retail sales of urban consumer goods amounted to RMB 18488 billion, up 9.8%; total retail sales of rural consumer goods amounted to RMB 1062.3 billion, up 6.8%. Consumption hotspots such as automobiles, housing and communications maintained rapid growth, with sales of communications equipment and automobiles increasing by 62.4% and 58.0% respectively in the total retail sales of goods in the wholesale and retail trade industry above the quota for the first three quarters. In addition, sales of commercial properties increased by 31.9%, of which those sold to individuals increased by 33.5%, accounting for 91% of the total sales of commercial properties. Residents' consumption of tourism and culture also grew faster.
6, market prices continue to run low. In the first three quarters, the price of consumer goods fell 0.8% compared with the same period last year. Among them, urban fell by 1.0%, rural fell by 0.4%. In terms of commodity categories, prices of services rose by 2.0% year-on-year, and prices of consumer goods fell by 1.6%. In the first three quarters, retail commodity prices fell 1.4% year-on-year. Industrial factory prices fell 2.9% year-on-year. Among them, the price of production materials fell by 3.1% year-on-year, and the factory price of living materials fell by 2.2% year-on-year. Purchase prices of raw materials, fuel and power fell by 3.2%. From the dynamic point of view, the market price decline in the third quarter has tended to narrow, all types of prices year-on-year decline than in the previous two quarters, the chain of indicators has been stabilized, and some of them also rose slightly.
7, foreign economic and trade rapid growth. In the first three quarters, the total import and export of 445.1 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 18.3% over the same period last year. Among them, exports of 232.6 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 19.4%; imports of 212.6 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 17.2%. Import and export offset, the cumulative trade surplus of 20 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 6.6 billion U.S. dollars. In total exports, exports to the U.S. increased by 24.5%, to the EU increased by 13.8%, to ASEAN increased by 27.4%,; to Hong Kong increased by 25.2%, to South Korea increased by 19.9%, to Japan increased by 4.9%. Utilization of foreign investment increased significantly. from January to September, the foreign direct investment agreement amounted to 68.4 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 38.4%; the actual utilization of foreign direct investment of 39.6 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 22.6%.
8, economic efficiency gradually improved. 1 ~ August, industrial enterprises realized profits of 324.6 billion yuan after the break-even, up 10%. Among them, the state-owned and state-controlled enterprises realized profits of 152.6 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, the rate of decline than in the first half of the year significantly narrowed. 1-8 months, the loss of 83.6 billion yuan loss of loss-making enterprises, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year loss. Among them, the state-owned and state-controlled enterprises loss of 50.3 billion yuan, from the original increase in the loss of 1.1%. In the first three quarters, the industrial production and sales rate was 97.6%, 0.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Fiscal revenue along with the sustained growth of the economy and the implementation of measures to increase revenue and reduce expenditure, but also gradually reversed the low rate of growth.
9, money supply growth accelerated. In the first three quarters, loans from financial institutions increased by 1,353.3 billion yuan over the beginning of the year, an increase of 415.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Deposits increased by 225.35 billion yuan, an increase of 689.8 billion yuan. By the end of September, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 1,769.82 billion yuan, up 16.5% over the same period of the previous year; the balance of narrow money (M1) stood at 6,679.7 billion yuan, up 15.9%; and the balance of cash in circulation (M0) stood at 1,623.4 billion yuan, up 7.8%.
10, residents' income to maintain faster growth. In the first three quarters, with the acceleration of economic growth, the policies of increasing residents' income, increasing social security, and reducing the burden on farmers have produced positive effects, and residents' income has maintained a relatively rapid growth. The disposable income per capita of urban residents was 5,793 yuan, excluding price factors, an increase of 17.2% in real terms; the cash income per capita of rural residents was 1,721 yuan, an increase of 5.3% in real terms. By the end of September, the balance of urban and rural residents' savings deposits had reached 8,413.9 billion yuan, an increase of 104.61 billion yuan over the beginning of the year, or an additional 351.3 billion yuan year-on-year.
Currently, the economic operation of the problems are: employment pressure is still large, the effective demand is insufficient, the market price decline has not yet completely changed the situation, the slow growth of sales in rural markets, the economic structure of the irrational and so on, need to pay attention to.