Although the U.S. stock market in the last two trading days of October closed higher, but the face of the whole month of October's sharp decline is no help. October, the U.S. stock market has been repeatedly hit, the previous rising trend of the technology sector and semiconductor plate in a number of giant stocks have been caught in the technical bear market, is to drag down the Nasdaq index in November 2008, the largest single-month decline since the month of November.
Market analysts pointed out that the U.S. stock market in October, strong fluctuations should be vigilant, "rolling bear market" or has come; there is also the view that the U.S. stock market for nearly a decade of the bull market did not end, the U.S. stock market outlook is still worth looking forward to.
Technology stocks dragged down the Nasdaq index
The last trading day of October, the Nasdaq index reported 7305.9 points, a cumulative decline of 9.2% in October, the largest single-month decline since November 2008; S&P 500 index reported 2711.74 points, a cumulative decline of 6.94% in October, the largest single-month decline since September 2011 month since the largest single-month decline; Dow Jones Industrial Average at 25115.76 points, October cumulative decline of 5.07%, the largest single-month decline since January 2016.
Among them, by some of the technology giants less than expected earnings results, the U.S. midterm elections are still uncertain, as well as a number of countries to study the impact of technology giants to levy new taxes and other factors, "the longest bull market in history," the leader of the tech stocks in October suffered a terrible sell-off, dragging the Nasdaq index hit a record of nearly ten years of a single-month decline. Data show that in October, the 23 trading days, the Nasdaq 15 days down, only 8 days up. U.S. technology giants "FANG" (Facebook, Amazon, Nifty and Google's parent company Alphabet) in October, respectively, cumulative decline of 7.7%, 20.2%, 19.34% and 9.78%, the month of "FANG" total market capitalization **** The total market value of the month "FANG" evaporated more than 400 billion U.S. dollars, while the Nasdaq index represented by technology stocks evaporated market value of more than 1 trillion U.S. dollars this month.
Science and technology stocks, previously rising momentum of the U.S. semiconductor sector has not performed as well as expected since this year, and in October it is continuing to soften. As the global semiconductor industry boom the main indicators of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) October cumulative decline of 11.97%. Starting in August this year, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, including Wall Street investment banks have downgraded a number of semiconductor company ratings and target prices, citing deteriorating sentiment in the semiconductor market, inventory levels continue to rise. Into October, a number of semiconductor stocks fell, AMD, NVIDIA, Micron Technology and other semiconductor giants from the year's high point are down more than 20%, into the technical bear market.
Institutional views are divided
The last two trading days of October, U.S. stocks closed high did not play a role in boosting market sentiment, part of the investment banks and industry insiders said that the U.S. stock market in October, strong fluctuations should be vigilant, the "rolling bear market" (i.e., different The "rolling bear market" (i.e., different sectors, industries or assets in turn down) or has come; there are also organizations that the U.S. stock "longest bull market in history" is not the end.
Baird Chief Investment Strategist Bruce Bitters said in a report released on November 1, the U.S. stock market two-day rally warned that "this week's stock market trend is more just the market volatility in October, rather than the stock market trend to improve the evidence".
Ralph Acampora, a market technician and the "godfather" of chart analysis, said that the current state of the US stock market is worse than many investors on Wall Street realize, "The Dow and S&P 500 have given back all of their 2018 gains, while the Nasdaq has fallen into a correction range that will take months to complete. correction territory, which will take months to regroup." Akampola believes that "the entire U.S. stock market will enter a bear market" and "the market may not recover until the first quarter of 2019".
Michael Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, has repeatedly reported that the market is experiencing a "rolling bear market". Bank of America Merrill Lynch quantitative analysis team previously reported that the number of triggered U.S. stock bear market indicators has increased significantly, has reached 14 (out of a total of 19), according to the latest data on U.S. stock bear and bull indicators and historical experience to judge, "U.S. stocks topped out to turn the bear may only take 21 months.
But Tom Lee, former chief equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase, argued that the market has bottomed out, and the time has come to buy some of the industry sectors that have previously been hit hard. He pointed out in a report released on November 1, the market has been seriously "oversold", and said "the bottom has come", predicting that U.S. stocks will rise 10% by the end of the year.
"McClellan Market Report" publisher, well-known chart analyst Tom McClellan also said that the current trend is more related to the seasonal fluctuations associated with October, rather than more clearly subverted the U.S. stocks nearly a decade of bull market. McClellan said the outlook for the U.S. stock market remains promising.
(Source article)