"Speed ??is actually the most boring application of 5G." He, a student from Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, concluded with this sentence after he produced a 5G-themed video that went viral on the Internet.
5G is a familiar but unfamiliar word to us. At this time, as the focus technology of the "sweater war", 5G breaks into people's field of vision in a more violent way. What exactly is 5G? What impacts and changes will it bring?
5G is the fifth generation of mobile communication technology. Mobile communication technology originated in the 1970s. With the continuous improvement of peak speeds from the first to the fifth generation, its application scenarios have also undergone tremendous changes.
The first generation of mobile communication technology was mainly used for analog voice transmission. At that time, we were using mobile phones to communicate;
The second generation was used for digital voice transmission and could bear a small amount of low-speed transmission. With data requirements, we can make phone calls, send text messages, and simply browse the web;
The third generation requires higher-speed digital voice transmission, and we can further browse most web pages, start playing social software, and Mobile games, but watching videos is still a bit difficult;
The fourth generation requires more diverse business transmission capabilities. We can make smooth video calls and play short videos.
So, what kind of world will 5G open up next?
According to the Oriental Securities Research Institute’s review of the evolution of mobile communication technology, 5G may achieve the goal of interconnecting everything.
The "5G Concept White Paper" of the IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group predicts that 5G will mainly use four technical scenarios: continuous wide area coverage, hotspot high capacity, low power consumption and large connection, and low latency and high reliability. Among them, the first two are aimed at the business demands of the mobile Internet, while the last two are to meet the market needs of the future Internet of Things.
According to Flush iFinD terminal industry chain display, the entire 5G industry panorama presents "network planning and design -> wireless radio frequency supporting -> base station main equipment and transmission -> network engineering and optimization -> 5G terminal -> 5G "Application" links can be roughly divided into access network, bearer network and core network. The base station in the access network is the core, and its main task is to complete the sending and receiving of communication data; the bearer network is located between the access network and the switch, and is used to transmit various voice and data services, usually using optical fiber as the transmission medium; the core network The main function is to manage the data transmitted from the bearer network and connect the transmitted data to different networks.
In the Pacific Securities 5G series report, 5G commercial use is divided into three stages. Combined with the 5G industry chain in the picture above, we can roughly sort out the following benefit sequence:
The first stage , in the early stage of 5G commercialization, operators will carry out large-scale network construction. At this stage, equipment manufacturers will be the main beneficiaries of 5G;
In the second stage, in the mid-term of 5G commercialization, a replacement wave is expected to come, and terminal equipment expenditures and telecommunications service expenditures from users are expected to gain Rapid growth. At this stage, terminal equipment manufacturers and their industrial chain have benefited significantly;
In the third stage, entering the middle and late stages of 5G commercial use, with the continued penetration of 5G terminals and networks, the 5G-related information service industry will usher in to grow explosively. At this stage, Internet companies will be proud of the entire 5G industry chain.
From the perspective of various segments of the industrial chain:
1. Base station: antennas, PCB and other links have outstanding value
According to calculations by Orient Securities, The total investment in 5G base stations is approximately 900 billion yuan. Massive MIMO is a key technology for improving spectrum efficiency. The upgrade of base station architecture and the construction of base stations directly increase the value of antennas, PCBs and other industrial chain links. In addition, the introduction of ultra-dense networking technology is expected to significantly increase the number of small base stations in the 5G era, and domestic small base station suppliers are expected to benefit significantly in the next few years.
2. RF front-end: 5G demand triggers industrial changes
Yole predicts that benefiting from 5G, the RF front-end market size is expected to grow from US$10.11 billion in 2016 to US$22.78 billion in 2022. , a six-year compound growth rate of 14.5%. Among them, the compound growth rate of filters in six years reached 21%. Pacific Securities’ 5G-related research report points out that 5G’s changes to mobile phone radio frequency modules are: (1) The new frequency bands added by 5G directly increase the demand for radio frequency devices; (2) The introduction of millimeter waves has increased the demand for BAW filters suitable for high frequencies. Significant increase; (3) MIMO technology upgrade has brought demand for antennas and related devices; (4) 5G high-frequency communication has upgraded the radio frequency manufacturing process from the current GaAs to GaN.
3. Core network and transmission network: communication equipment, optical modules and optical fibers are in greatest demand
In the early stage of large-scale commercial use of 5G, operators will carry out large-scale network construction, of which equipment investment The largest proportion. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology predicts that by 2020 in the domestic market alone, telecom operators will invest more than 220 billion yuan in 5G network equipment manufacturers, and the global market will see investment several times this amount. 5G construction will bring new opportunities to system equipment manufacturers. development opportunities. In addition, signal transmission between devices at each layer of the 5G transport network is mainly achieved through optical fibers. Optical modules are the key to realizing photoelectric signal conversion, so the demand for optical fibers and optical modules has also "increased".
According to estimates from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the direct output of 5G in 2020, 2025 and 2030 is 484 billion yuan, 3.3 trillion yuan and 6.3 trillion yuan respectively, with a ten-year average annual compound growth rate of 29%; the indirect output during the period was 1.2, 6.3, and 10.6 trillion yuan respectively, with an average annual compound growth rate of 24%. While bringing about a trillion-dollar market, the scenario-based changes in life that 5G applications will trigger are also worth looking forward to.
Immersive experience is more "immersive"
In reality, we can use VR (virtual reality) glasses, helmets or other sensors to make people At home, you can experience tourist attractions, concerts, and museums thousands of miles away. However, dizziness is unavoidable in many cases. This is partly due to the time delay, that is, there is a delay when the system detects human body movements and reflects them in the VR field of view.
Compared with the current 4G delay of about 70ms, the delay of 5G data transmission will not exceed 1 millisecond, which can effectively solve the dizziness caused by data delay. At the same time, 5G’s high-bandwidth and high-speed characteristics can effectively solve the transmission problem of VR content and promote its large-scale application.
Perhaps in the 5G era in the near future, we will be on the battlefield. What we see, what we hear, and what we touch are all "real scenes." Every time a gun is fired or thrown, One shot and one shot are no longer about clicking the mouse or touching the screen, but about "acting" with your own hands and feet.
Autonomous driving may become a reality
In the 4G era, too long delays will make driverless cars and aircraft unable to respond in time when encountering emergencies. The worry of causing accidents will be infinitely reduced in the 5G era.
V2X is the key to autonomous driving. V2X wireless communication is a new communication technology proposed by automobile manufacturers and the wireless ecosystem for automobile and road networking. V2X leverages networks and other objects to provide cars with longer-distance non-line-of-sight views and cloud computing capabilities, thereby complementing autonomous driving functions such as light detection and ranging.
5G is the foundation of V2X networking. Relying on 5G’s advantages such as low latency, high reliability, high speed, and security, it can effectively improve the timely and accurate collection, processing, dissemination, and utilization of Internet of Vehicles information. Safety capabilities contribute to information exchange and efficient collaboration between vehicles, vehicles and people, and vehicles and roads. The commercial use of 5G can accelerate the arrival of autonomous driving.
Internet of Everything
Nowadays, smart homes have gradually become popular. We can control some home appliances through mobile phones, SIRI, smart speakers, etc., and in the 5G era, this may be the most primitive state.
In the future, each object may have one or several chips used to collect information, transmit information or receive instructions. We can track the growth of every apple and kiwi, and know exactly where our express delivery has arrived.
When we go to the supermarket to buy things, we no longer need a cashier. We just take the things and go out directly. The chip will automatically transmit the purchase information to the central processing system and deduct the corresponding amount from your account.
There is no need to register and queue up to see a doctor. Telemedicine applications are rapidly gaining popularity. Patients (especially those in remote areas) can receive diagnosis, treatment and consultation at home.
Perhaps when the whole world enters the 5G era, more changes in industries and even society will be swept across. Whether they are foreseeable or unforeseen, they all indicate that 5G will be more important than the 5G era. The extra 1G of 4G will be revolutionary.