In the first half of the year, China's economy was steady and solid, with GDP growth of 12.7% year-on-year, a two-year average of 5.3%, accelerated by 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter, and constantly converging to the potential growth level. Domestic demand continues to recover steadily, contributing 80.9% to economic growth, up 4.9 percentage points from the first quarter, providing sufficient momentum for the economy to stabilize and improve.
I, domestic demand recovery highlights
(a) Consumption plays the role of the first engine, the growth rate of retail sales of units above the quota has exceeded the pre-epidemic level. The consumer market showed a better recovery trend, the total retail sales of social consumption goods increased by 23%, a two-year average growth of 4.4%, accelerated by 0.2 percentage points compared with the first quarter. Influenced by the epidemic that caused consumers to prefer consumption scenarios such as large-scale superstores and shopping malls with excellent environments, as well as the transformation of online consumption that prompted the concentration of consumption to head merchants, total retail sales of consumer goods of units above the limit grew by 26.4%, with a two-year average growth of 6.5%, which was already faster than the growth rate in the first half of 2019 (4.9%).
Classification, the faster growth of basic living consumption, the continued expansion of high-end upgraded consumption, new types of consumption high-speed growth. First, the consumption of food and clothing faster growth. Retail sales of basic living goods increased by an average of 9.9% over the past two years, of which 12.8%, 3.7% and 13.7% were for food, clothing and utilities respectively. Secondly, the consumption of medium- and high-end upgraded categories has been steadily released. In the domestic consumption upgrading, overseas consumption return *** with the role of units above the limit of automobiles, communication equipment, cosmetics, gold and silver jewelry increased by 30.4%, 26.1%, 26.6%, 59.9%. Thirdly, new types of consumption continue to flourish. Online consumption viscosity increased significantly, the content of consumption from physical commodities to accelerate the expansion of the service sector, "cloud tourism", "distance education", "telemedicine" and other new forms of new models continue to emerge. The retail sales of online goods and services increased by 23%. Online retail sales of goods and services grew by 23.2%, an average of 15.0% over the two years, and 3.4 times the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods over the same period. The volume of express delivery business increased by 45.8% year-on-year, with a daily average of 300 million pieces becoming the norm.
(2) Investment plays a key role in increasing strength, replenishing short boards, and promoting vitality " Three Arrows in One " . strong> . From the expenditure method GDP accounting, in the first half of the year, gross capital formation contributed 19.2% to economic growth, pulling economic growth by 2.4 percentage points. Investment demand has steadily improved, with fixed asset investment up 12.6% year-on-year, a two-year average growth of 4.4%, accelerated by 1.5 percentage points over the first quarter. The investment orientation of adjusting structure and promoting transformation is fully manifested, the investment structure continues to be optimized, and the ability of investment to lead the supply upgrade is further enhanced.
In the main areas, the new kinetic energy investment, short-term investment in high-speed growth, manufacturing investment to speed up the recovery. The first is the high speed growth of high-tech industry investment. The country vigorously promote the innovation-driven strategy, accelerate the key core technology research and development, focus on enhancing the industry chain supply chain independent and controllable ability, high-tech industry investment growth of 23.5%, two-year average growth of 14.6%. Chip manufacturing, medical equipment manufacturing, and e-commerce services, R&D and design services and other industries have become hot spots for investment. Secondly, investment in the agricultural and social sectors continued to grow at a fast pace. With the successive promotion and in-depth implementation of the rural revitalization strategy, effective investment space in agriculture and rural areas has been released. Investment in the primary industry grew by 21.3%, with an average growth rate of 13.2% over the past two years. The State has increased its efforts to invest in people, focusing on upgrading the supply capacity of public ****services, with investment in social sectors such as education, health, elderly care, culture and sports growing by 16.4%, an average of 10.7% over the past two years. Thirdly, investment in the manufacturing industry has accelerated its recovery. Driven by the substantial growth in manufacturing profits, increased support for medium- and long-term loans, and better business expectations, manufacturing investment grew by 19.2% year-on-year, with a two-year average growth rate of 2.0%, accelerating by 4 percentage points compared with the first quarter.
Second, the favorable factors to promote the steady recovery of domestic demand continue to increase
In the integration of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development at the same time, the current support for the further recovery of domestic demand of the favorable factors in the increasing.
In terms of consumer demand, first, there is a foundation. The employment situation is generally stable, people's livelihood protection is more powerful, and residents' income is expected to be steadily repaired, which provides an income guarantee for the recovery of consumption. The second is the power. new consumer rapid expansion, online and offline accelerated integration, consumption of time and space scope of the significant expansion of consumer transactions more efficient, consumer prices more inclusive, for the consumer recovery injected a strong new momentum. Third, there is potential. China is a mega market with a population of 1.4 billion, a middle-income group of more than 400 million, and a per capita GDP of more than 10,000 U.S. dollars, which contains the potential for consumption upgrading of a large volume, multiple levels, and diversification. Fourth, there are policies. A series of policies to promote consumption will be further implemented to promote automobile consumption, transform and upgrade urban consumption centers, create a nighttime economy, and open up the rural consumption market.
In terms of investment demand, the first is the development of enterprise confidence.
The State closely follows the urgent needs of the market main body, the implementation of a series of tax cuts and fee reductions, the financial funds direct mechanism, monetary policy direct tools and financial policies, and other policies to enhance the development of the main body of the market confidence. Manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index have been 16 consecutive months in the boom zone, the first half of the number of new market players increased by nearly 40% year-on-year. Secondly, the investment capital is guaranteed. Enterprise profits improved significantly, helping to enhance the endogenous power of investment, 1-5 months above-scale industrial enterprise profits jumped 83.4% year-on-year, two-year average growth of 21.7%. The operating income of service industry enterprises above designated size increased by 31.9% year-on-year, with a two-year average growth of 11.1%. Financial support for the real economy has further increased, the first half of the manufacturing industry, the balance of medium- and long-term loans increased by 41.6% year-on-year, the growth rate of 16.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Fixed asset investment in the first half of the funds in place increased by 16.8% year-on-year, the growth rate exceeded the investment growth rate. Third, major projects have reserves. "14th Five-Year Plan" plan to determine the 102 major projects are being deployed to promote, around the investment project reserves are also relatively abundant. 5,000,000 yuan in June and more than 10,000 large projects in the database, an increase of 11.6%.
Three, anchored in the weak link of domestic demand recovery to increase support
In full affirmation of the steady recovery of domestic demand at the same time, we also need to note that the recovery of domestic demand is not balanced, the foundation of the problem of unstable still exists to varying degrees. In order to small store economy as the representative of the quota unit sales recovery is still slow; contact service consumption is still a weak link; investment in real estate, infrastructure dependence is still high, the average growth rate of two years of investment in the purchase of equipment and tools is still negative, equipment renewal and technological transformation investment to be stimulated; manufacturing investment in the upper middle and lower reaches of the polarization is obvious, the high energy-consuming manufacturing industry, investment in the faster growth of the energy dual-control work highlights the pressure of the pressure.
It is recommended to anchor the weak links, increase the structural policy of tilted support, and push forward the supply-side structural reform to promote domestic demand to achieve a higher level of balanced recovery. On the one hand, it is important to promote the prevention and control of epidemics and economic and social development in an integrated manner.
We will continue to work hard to prevent and control epidemics, and actively promote vaccination, to further consolidate and strengthen our international leading position in epidemic prevention and control.
Further strengthening the policy of giving priority to employment, promoting college graduates, migrant workers, and groups of people with difficulties in employment to achieve fuller and higher-quality employment, implementing the policy of reducing the burden of stabilizing and expanding employment, and strengthening the protection of the rights and interests of workers in the new employment pattern. It will also implement detailed measures to reduce taxes and fees, increase support for inclusive finance, and improve the policy system for supporting the development of market players. Efforts will be made to ease the impact of imported inflation on small and medium-sized enterprises and mid- and downstream industries. Expanding consumer demand around improving people's livelihoods, stabilizing bulk consumption such as automobiles and home appliances, vigorously developing consumption of services such as health, culture, tourism and sports, and accelerating the cultivation of new types of consumption. Deepen the reform of "releasing, managing and serving" in the field of investment, optimize the examination and approval procedures, strengthen the protection of funds, land and other factors, and promote the early commencement of projects and the efficient use of funds. The government's investment in the central budget, local government special bonds and other government investment to play a leading role in more fully mobilizing market players, social forces to participate in major projects.