In the previous article, we analyzed the background and impact of the upgraded "plastic restriction", and introduced the advantages and disadvantages of several biodegradable plastic products, and concluded that the industry demand will explode under the impetus of the policy!
In this article, we will make a projection of the market space of biodegradable plastics in several scenarios, such as take-away lunch boxes, online shopping bags, etc., and further pursue the market opportunities under the influence of the "plastic restriction" policy by combining the development of the domestic industry and the layout of enterprises!
01
The new "plastic limit" delineates the timetable
A 100 billion replacement market is forming
In recent years, the Internet has become highly popular as well as the "plastic" industry. The high popularity of the Internet and the rapid rise of the "lazy man economy", making online shopping, takeaway and other industries have seen explosive growth, corresponding to the takeaway lunch boxes, online shopping bags, the amount of plastic bags have seen a surge, and these discarded plastic products have become the new "white pollution "
As the global demand for improving the environment becomes stronger and stronger, countries have introduced or improved their own "plastic limit" policies for the pollution of disposable plastic products, and the use of biodegradable plastic products is considered to be the most effective solution for eradicating "white pollution". The use of biodegradable plastic products is considered to be the most effective solution to curb "white pollution".
In January of this year, China launched an upgraded version of the "Plastic Restriction Order" in 2007 based on the "Opinions on Further Strengthening the Control of Plastic Pollution" issued by the Development and Reform Commission (DRC) and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MOE).
Compared to the 2007 "plastic limit order", the new version of the "plastic limit order" in the manufacture and use of plastic products put forward more stringent requirements, put forward a comprehensive ban on the import of waste plastics, express delivery, takeaways, etc. prohibited or limited to the use of disposable plastic products. In addition, non-compliant companies will be included in the record of loss of trust.
The new version of the "plastic limit order" will be divided into three steps, in accordance with the "ban a batch, replace the cycle of a batch, standardize a batch of" principle, divided into 2020, 2022, 2025, three time periods, clear to strengthen the governance of plastic pollution phased The task objectives.
By the end of 2020, prohibit the production and sale of disposable foamed plastic tableware, disposable plastic swabs; prohibit the production of daily products containing plastic beads. By the end of 2022, the sale of daily chemical products containing plastic beads will be banned.
For the use of plastic products, the views from the non-degradable plastic bags, disposable plastic tableware, hotels, hotels, disposable plastic supplies, courier plastic packaging four aspects of the norms, and delineated a clear timetable.
For non-degradable plastic bags:
For express plastic packaging:
For disposable plastic tableware:
Currently, in addition to our most commonly used plastic bags, courier, agricultural film, takeaways are also disposable plastics demand, only these three applications, the country can produce close to 5 million tons of plastic waste per year, the future can be The future can be degraded plastic alternative space is vast.
In terms of the express field, benefiting from the popularity of online shopping, since 2014, China's express line of business has ranked first in the world for five consecutive years, business volume more than the United States, Japan, Europe and other developed economies combined, accounting for about half of the world.
Among them, in 2018, the national express industry **** consumed 50.71 billion pieces of express waybills, about 5.3 billion woven bags, about 24.5 billion plastic bags, about 43 billion meters of tape. According to this estimate, in 2018, the national express delivery industry generated about 800,000 tons of plastic waste.
By 2019, the national express delivery business volume has reached 63 billion pieces, up 24% year-on-year. According to the same proportion of growth rate estimates, in 2019, the national express delivery industry to generate plastic waste can be about 990,000 tons.
At the 2016 Global Intelligent Logistics Summit, Cainiao Network announced the launch of the Cainiao Green Alliance - "Green Action Plan" in conjunction with 32 Chinese and global partners, with a commitment to replace 50% of packaging materials by 2020, with fillers of 100% biodegradable green packaging materials.
We combined with the upgraded version of the "Plastic Restriction Order" for the express plastic packaging restrictions on the timetable, by 2022, we will have no less than 400,000 tons of biodegradable plastic replacement needs, by 2025, only the express field of biodegradable plastic demand will be more than 1 million tons.
In terms of the film sector, film is widely used in the field of agricultural cultivation, and with the promotion and popularization of film, the amount of film used around the world has been increasing in recent years, and the amount of film used has stabilized at 2.4 million tons over the years.
In terms of takeaway lunch boxes, in 2018, China's takeaway orders reached 10.96 billion single, and according to the environmental organization "Nature University" research found that each takeaway consumes an average of 3.3 lunch boxes, which produces about 160g of plastic. According to this projection, in 2018 China's takeaway industry consumed more than 1.75 million tons of disposable tableware plastic.
Then, according to the 2018 statistics for estimation, only the express delivery, agricultural film, takeaway three major areas, the substitution space of degradable plastics is close to 5 million tons. We then follow the average median of 20,000 yuan per ton, the corresponding market space is up to 100 billion yuan!
02
Domestic technological breakthroughs have been achieved
Leader of the dragonheads will be y benefited
By the global "plastic",
According to IHSMarkit's statistics, the global demand for biodegradable plastics was 360,000 tons in 2018, and will grow to 550,000 tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.85%.
From the geographical composition of the consumer market, due to Europe and the United States and other developed countries earlier formulated corresponding policies to promote the development of biodegradable plastics, so the current largest consumer market for biodegradable plastics in Europe and the United States, Western Europe accounted for half of the global biodegradable plastics consumer market.
At the same time, Europe and the United States have become the fastest growing regions for the degradable plastics industry, such as the United States, Italy, Germany and other countries.
Thanks to the implementation of "plastic restriction" and "plastic ban" policies, companies in these regions, such as Nature Works, Danimer Scientific, BASF, Mater-/Biopolymer, etc., have all become the fastest growing in the biodegradable plastics industry. Biopolymer and other companies in these regions have grown to become world-renowned leaders in biodegradable plastics.
At the beginning of this year, China issued an upgraded version of the "Plastic Restriction Order", a comprehensive ban on the import of waste plastics, express delivery, takeaways, etc., banned or limited to disposable plastic products, and put forward a clear timetable, it is expected that China's popularization of the process of promoting the popularization of biodegradable plastics will be accelerated in the future, China is expected to become the fastest-growing market for biodegradable plastics. The company is expected to become the fastest growing market for biodegradable plastics in China in the future.
From the composition point of view, degradable plastic products are mainly divided into starch-based plastics, PLA (polylactic acid), PBS (including PBSA, PBAT, etc.), PHAs four categories. Among them, PLA (polylactic acid) is currently the most mature industrialization, the largest production, the most widely used biodegradable plastics.
At present, the global PLA production capacity of more than 500,000 tons / year, of which, the United States Nature Works annual production capacity of 150,000 tons, accounting for about 30% of the global production capacity of polylactic acid. The production of PLA in China is still in its infancy.
Due to the PBS upstream raw materials PTA, adipic acid, etc. in our country's spare capacity, with the cost and performance advantages, PBS class polyester in the global development of PBAT faster, the application of a larger scale.
PBAT has good thermal stability, excellent mechanical properties, and can be widely used in food packaging, cosmetic boxes, drug boxes, tableware, disposable medical supplies, agricultural films and other fields.
In China, the development of PBAT technology is relatively mature and easier to industrialize, at present, the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Physics and Chemistry Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Chemistry, Tsinghua University, Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Polyester Company and other units, has formed with independent intellectual property rights of the PBAT production process package and related patented technology.
At present, in the A-share listed companies, Jinfa Technology, Ruifeng High Material, Yifan Medicine, Jinming Precision Machinery, etc. in the field of biodegradable plastics have the relevant technology reserves, part of the enterprise has been successfully put into operation and smooth to the market, the future will become the upgraded version of China's "Plastic Restriction Order" implementation of the first batch of beneficiaries.
Golden Gold Technology : The company is the only Asian completely mastered polymerization, modification and end-use of the core technology of completely biodegradable plastics production enterprises, biodegradable plastics sales of the world's top five, the first in Asia.
The company has mastered a variety of (PBSA, PBAT, etc.) a variety of petroleum-based polyester biodegradable plastics production capacity, Zhuhai PBSA biodegradable plastics project in 2011 to achieve industrial production, the product has been recognized by the European Union, and continue to export to Europe and the United States.
From the point of view of production capacity, the company's current biodegradable plastics are mainly PBSA and PBAT, with a combined production capacity of about 60,000 tons. Under the background of plastic ban in many places in Europe and the further implementation of domestic plastic restriction, the company's degradable plastics business is expected to usher in a new development.
Ruifeng High Material: The company's subordinate research center has not only mastered the relevant technology through independent research and development and technical cooperation, but has also successfully passed the pilot test, and the performance of the production of PBAT bio-degradable plastics has also reached the international advanced level.
On the evening of March 16, the company announced that the company intends to invest not more than 320 million yuan to build an annual output of 60,000 tons of PBAT biodegradable plastics project. The construction period of the project is 15 months, and is expected to be completed and put into production by the end of June 2021. After the project is put into production, it will help optimize the company's product structure and cultivate new growth points.
Qixiang Tengda : The company has an annual output of 150,000 tons of PBS production line, belonging to the third generation of fully biodegradable plastic materials, which can be used to make packaging materials, food and beverage utensils, sanitary products and disposable products such as mulch.
Yifan Pharmaceuticals : As a global calcium pantothenate leader, the company's production capacity of 8,000 tons, accounting for 35% of the global market share. In recent years, the company in the field of biodegradable biomaterials is also accelerating the layout, in which its wholly owned subsidiary Hangzhou Xinfu in the construction of 20,000 tons of biodegradable plastic production capacity (including PBAT, PBSA, has been put into operation 10,000 tons), but accounted for the proportion of the company's total revenues is relatively small.
Jinming Precision Machinery : The company is one of the brand representatives of China's professional film equipment out of the country, the products are exported to Japan, Israel, Russia, Central Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia and more than 50 countries and regions.
The company has successfully developed biodegradable agricultural film production equipment and other products, breaking the long-term dependence on imports of the situation, with the arrival of the intensive construction period of the domestic biodegradable plastics project, the company as a biodegradable plastics upstream equipment providers, can open up a new space for development.
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