After liberation, China's aviation industry has developed greatly. China is one of the few enterprises that can produce a full range of aviation military products, with independent research and development capabilities and relatively complete supporting products. The China Regional Aircraft ARJ2 1 with independent intellectual property rights has entered the assembly stage and obtained the initial order for 70 aircraft. The regional plane "xinzhou 60" produced by Xifei has entered the international market and achieved good market response. Xiaolong made in Cheng Fei has been exported to Pakistan, and the performance of the third generation fighter J-10 exceeds that of the third generation fighter F- 16B of the United States, which has brought great shock to the international aviation community.
Hafei's helicopter has made great progress, from the previous participation in subcontracting to overall assembly, and participated in the research and development of new helicopters in all directions. Harbin Airlines Group also participated in the joint venture project of Brazilian Airlines to produce regional aircraft ERJ 145, and obtained a large number of purchase orders in China.
However, we need to recognize the shortcomings of China's aviation industry. China's civil aircraft market is almost occupied by foreign aviation giants such as Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer, and only some domestic enterprises produce aviation products such as postal transport and military transport aircraft. China has not been able to complete the development of large passenger aircraft, so it only participates in a large number of international air subcontracting business. Even in subcontracting business, there is a big gap in the depth of participation and business volume of Japanese aviation enterprises. China's military aviation products and equipment are still products of 1950s and 1960s, and the third generation (post-80s products) aviation products are being equipped, and the fourth generation aviation equipment is being developed. The United States is a leader in the international aviation industry. The US military mainly equipped the third generation aviation products and began to equip the fourth generation products.
Obviously, there is a big gap between China's aviation military products business and the world's leading countries. As a manufacturer of fixed-wing aircraft in China, China No.1 Airlines mainly undertakes the research, production and sales of military aircraft, civil aircraft and aero-engines, airborne equipment and weapon fire control systems. Military aviation products include fighters, fighter bombers, bombers, aerial tankers, transport planes, trainers, reconnaissance planes and so on. Fighters have J-7 and J-8 series in mass production; Sniper bombers have flying leopards; Bombers have H -6 series; Trainers include fighters, fighters, fighters, fighters, fighters. Aero-engines have formed turbojet 6, turbojet 7, turbojet 13, Kunlun, Qinling and other series; Air-to-air missiles have formed Thunderbolt 5 and Thunderbolt 8 series; Aviation airborne equipment basically meets the requirements of the whole machine. At the same time, a number of new-generation high-level aviation weapon key equipment such as Xiaolong new fighter and Shan Ying advanced trainer have achieved good market results. Civil Aircraft This report is compiled by the Institute of Everbright Securities Co., Ltd. on the basis of legally obtaining as reliable, accurate and complete information as possible, but it does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information contained.
China Aviation Industry Corporation No.1 (hereinafter referred to as China No.1 Airlines, AVIC 1) was established in July 1999, with 47 large and medium-sized industrial enterprises, 3 scientific research institutes and 22 professional companies and institutions directly under it. * * * 240,000 employees, total assets 100. Civil aircraft include Yun 7 and its improved version, xinzhou 60, and have cooperated with foreign countries to produce large trunk aircraft; Small general-purpose aircraft include EV-97 and so on. The ARJ2 1 new turbofan regional aircraft with international advanced level has entered the final assembly stage and won 70 orders. Non-aviation products have formed thousands of products in seven categories, including industrial gas turbines, automobiles and motorcycles, machinery, materials, IT, refrigeration and environmental protection equipment. Group companies also operate aircraft leasing, general survey, design and contracting, real estate development and other businesses.
The following are the main subsidiaries and products of China Aviation Industry Corporation I ... The organization chart of AVIC Group also largely determines the main path of the company's future integration and listing. We will analyze the possible integration results in detail below. China Aviation Industry Corporation II has 78 industrial enterprises, research institutes and other enterprises and institutions. China Aviation Science and Technology Industry Co., Ltd., which is listed in Hongkong, and the controlling shares of six A-share companies listed in China. AVIC No.1 holds 50% shares of China Aviation Technology Import and Export Corporation and China Aviation Industry Supply and Marketing Corporation respectively.
China Aviation Industry Corporation II mainly develops military and civil aircraft such as helicopters, transport planes, trainers, attack planes, general-purpose aircraft, drones and other aviation products such as related engines and airborne equipment, and also operates international subcontracting business of aviation products. Civil products mainly include automobiles, motorcycles and their engines and parts; Gas turbine, wind power generation; Non-aviation products such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, medical care and environmental protection equipment. In addition, the company also operates aircraft leasing, general aviation services, engineering survey and design, engineering contracting and construction, real estate development, intermediary services and other tertiary industry projects.
Over the past 50 years, the affiliated enterprises have produced 6,250 aircraft (including 708 helicopters), 23,800 aero-engines, and tactical missiles 10006, producing millions of automobiles, with the annual output of automobiles reaching one tenth of that of the whole country, becoming an important automobile research and production base in China, and developing and producing civilian products such as motorcycles. Since the reform and opening up, AVIC II has also made great progress in international cooperation. China and Pakistan jointly developed K8 aircraft, China and France jointly developed EC 120 helicopter, and China and Pakistan jointly produced ERJ 145 turbofan regional aircraft and other projects. K8, Y8, Y 12 and Z9 helicopters were all successful.
The following are the main subordinate enterprises and main products of China Aviation Industry Corporation II. Considering the special status of AVIC, we list them one by one in order to analyze their integration and listing path in detail. It mainly includes Yun -8, Yun -9 and Yun-12 series small and medium-sized transport aircraft, MA60 regional aircraft, ARJ2 1 regional aircraft under development, light helicopter Z-9, medium helicopter Z-8, Z- 1 1 etc. Judging from the market situation, MA60 is mainly sold to developing countries through foreign aid projects, with limited orders in the domestic market. Yun -8 is mainly purchased by the military, and the civilian market is very limited.
The Z-9 light helicopter produced in China has reached the international advanced level and achieved good market effect, mainly covering the fields of armed helicopters, armed police, border defense, fire fighting and rescue.
The strategic transformation of China's civil aircraft manufacturing industry should be that the China government put forward the large passenger aircraft development project as a special project for future development, and it was approved by the State Council development. At the same time, Airbus will build the assembly line of Airbus aircraft in Tianjin, which shows that the world aviation giants recognize the development level of China's aviation industry subcontracting business, and also provides a good opportunity for the further development of China's aviation industry.
Almost all aircraft equipped by China's civil aviation are imported. Airbus and Boeing monopolize the trunk passenger and cargo market, while regional airlines are mainly covered by passenger planes of Air Canada and Brazilian Airlines. More than 95% of the domestic subcontracting market is occupied by enterprises belonging to the first and second groups of AVIC. In 2005, AVIC I accounted for112.84 million dollars of the total domestic aviation manufacturing subcontracting market of about 200 million dollars, an increase of 36.2% over 2004. Among the enterprises affiliated to AVIC No.1 Middle School, Xifei, Cheng Fei, Shen Fei and Comac bear 3654330 respectively. Companies involved in AVIC II subcontracting mainly include Chengfa Technology, Hafei and Hongdu Airlines. In 2005, it was $49 million, $3 million and $20 million respectively, and the total subcontracting scale was about $72 million.
On the other hand, although China has gradually gained a higher proportion in subcontracting quota, in terms of subcontracting business types, China's orders mainly stay in relatively labor-intensive businesses such as processing, maintenance and inspection (MRO), so the added value of products is generally not high. According to the data, Japanese aviation manufacturing subcontracting to the United States is about 50 times that of China to the United States and 200 times that of India.
At present, domestic subcontracting business only provides services such as parts drawing and sample processing, and the degree of batch processing is not high, so it needs to share large R&D and design costs, so the average gross profit of this business is about 65,438+02%. By the end of 2005, the main fighter of China Air Force was still a fighter developed based on the technology of the Soviet Union in the 1950s, among which the J-6 was the largest. In the early 1980s, China stopped manufacturing J-6, but until Cheng Fei, it was still manufacturing J-7, which was the second largest active service after J-6. This aircraft is based on the MIG -2 1 design of the Soviet Union, and China is still developing various improvements of the J-7. The engine, avionics, fuel load and weapon system performance of the J-7 have been greatly improved. For example, the latest model of 歼 7 is replaced with WP- 13 turbojet engine developed by Guizhou Liyang Engine Company, and its power is 15% higher than that of the former Soviet engine. This new 歼 7 has all-weather combat capability, its range is twice that of the earlier model, and it can carry more advanced PL-8/9 combat missiles. However, due to the little change in aerodynamic shape, its air maneuverability and weapon carrying capacity are not as good as those of the third generation fighters such as F- 16, and it is not equipped with precision ground-to-ground ammunition or over-the-horizon air-to-air missiles.
Since the modernization of China's air force in the early 1990s, the most important thing is to buy Su Huoyi Su-30MKK aircraft from Russia. Su -30MKK aircraft is equipped with ZHUK M-E radar of Russian Accelerator Design Bureau, making it the most advanced aircraft of China Air Force. Su -30MKK has the characteristics of advanced structural design and multi-purpose of one machine. In addition to air combat, Su -30MKK also has a strong ground attack capability, which can attack ground radars, command and control centers, surface-to-air missiles and maritime targets. In addition, it can also complete the task of early warning commander and guide four aircraft of the same model or Su -27 series to fight at the same time. Shen Fei obtained Russian production license to mass-produce this type of aircraft and equip its troops. The localization title of this model is j-11b. Judging from the relevant speculation information, China has equipped hundreds of this series of aircraft.
J- 10, a new generation fighter concerned by the market, began mass production of equipment and troops after 20 years of research and development. Developed by Cheng Fei Company, this aircraft is also a multi-purpose fighter. In terms of performance, the J- 10 aircraft is similar to the first F- 16 Block 30 which can mount the AIM- 120 active radar missile in the United States. China may use vector engine on J- 10 to increase stealth. Because it is a third-generation fighter developed by China and equipped with domestic engines, it is highly recognized by the military and the government. We estimate that it will become one of the main equipment of China Air Force in the future.
Flying Leopard developed and produced by Xifei is a self-developed double-engine two-seat supersonic all-weather sniper bomber. FBC- 1 adopts conventional pneumatic layout. The wing is a swept upper wing with medium aspect ratio, the outer wing has aerodynamic torsion and the wing root has rounded corners. Inclined fixed axis full motion, middle and lower flat tail, large swept single vertical tail, single ventral fin. Air intake on both sides, bee-waist-shaped fuselage, powered by two MK-202 turbofan engines developed by our country, can provide 1 10,000 kg thrust. The main combat task of FBC- 1 is to attack the ground/sea, and it has certain annihilation and escort capabilities. The aircraft can be used to attack enemy targets in depth, as well as battlefield targets such as transportation hubs, frontier important sea areas, air bases, beaches and troop assembly points, and can also carry out long-range interception attacks on enemy large and medium-sized surface ships. FBC- 1 has a relatively advanced weapon fire control system. It is reported that the radar search range of Bao Fei fighter-bomber is150km, and the fire control radar range is100km. Compared with similar aircraft in China, this aircraft has the advantages of large moving radius, strong attack power, excellent penetration performance, large bomb load, long range, emphasis on nighttime and complexity. The refitted aircraft has finished equipping the navy and started to equip the China Air Force.
China Air Force's weapons and equipment are not available in China Air Force, so we can only use foreign market analysis data for qualitative analysis. We have obtained the equipment data of China Air Force from RAND Corporation and Asian Defense Yearbook. (This data is foreign guess data, which may be quite different from the actual data. )
According to these two sets of data, we can draw the following conclusions: First, the main fighters equipped by China are still products from 1950s and 1960s. Although the improved 歼 8 and 歼 7 belong to the third generation fighters, compared with the standard third generation fighter-American "F- 16", there is still a certain gap in performance indicators. Second, China's newly developed third-generation fighters, such as J-10, J-1,Flying Leopard, have begun to equip troops, but the proportion is still low. Third, under the pressure of the United States and Europe to equip the fourth-generation fighters, China will develop the fourth-generation fighters. According to relevant information, China has started the preliminary work.
According to the above points, although we can't predict the demand for military aircraft in China in the future, the growth of military materials in the future will be quite rapid. This growth mainly includes the need to upgrade and develop the prototype of the fourth generation fighter. According to the information obtained from the relevant military network, China is vigorously equipping a new generation of fighters, which is basically consistent with our inference. China government began to reform the investment system and military procurement system of national defense military enterprises, which is undoubtedly a great advantage for military enterprises that have been in a semi-planned state. We believe that both the system reform and the market development prospect will bring good development opportunities for China aviation industry.
Relevant information shows that the demand for all aviation products will maintain rapid growth in the world market and China market in the future.
We believe that there will be good investment opportunities in China aviation industry in the future, but the asset profitability and development prospects of aviation enterprises are quite different, so it is necessary to clarify the specific situation of aviation enterprises. We will release detailed investment reports of specific companies later. Above, we have made a simple description of the enterprise situation, industry development status and future development prospects of the aviation industry, and we have made a simple summary.
First of all, China's aviation industry consists of Aviation Group I and Aviation Group II, which manufacture fixed-wing aircraft and spiral-wing aircraft respectively. Except for helicopter gunships and a few military transport planes, the First Aviation Group produces all military aircraft. In terms of non-aviation business, the automobile business of Er Hang is bigger in the market.
Secondly, we listed the organizational structure and business contents of the whole AVIC I Group and AVIC II Group in detail, which played a very important role in our subsequent integration inference.
Third, China's aviation power has developed rapidly, and it already has considerable influence in the international market. However, compared with advanced countries in Europe and America, our aviation development level is still quite backward.
Fourthly, China's aviation industry faces unprecedented development prospects. Both the system reform and the market development prospect will bring good development opportunities to China aviation industry.
Fifth, the world aviation market will develop rapidly in the future.
China aviation industry integration deduction Because many factors are needed for the merger and reorganization of listed companies, we try to make a sand table deduction of aviation industry integration from the perspective of the interests of listed companies and the operation of investment banks. The risk that needs to be reminded is that this kind of deduction is only a way that we think is possible, and we have not verified it with the relevant companies. In the end, it may be quite different from the actual situation, and even the group company will not carry out any integration behavior.