First of all, it is still difficult for the global economy to get rid of the pressure of the depth of the adjustment, and the world has entered into a period of deep structural adjustment from the period of rapid development before the international financial crisis. The pace of global economic recovery has been slower than expected, the output gap remains high, and some countries are still digesting the subsequent impacts of the financial crisis, including high indebtedness and high unemployment. At the same time, due to the aging of the labor force and slow growth in labor productivity, resulting in a decline in the potential growth rate of the global economy, most economies still need to "maintain growth" as a top priority.
In contrast, global trade is growing more slowly. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) released the latest forecast of global trade growth, global trade volume growth in 2014 and 2015 are expected to be revised down to 3.1% and 4%, far lower than the 2008 financial crisis before the 10-year average trade growth rate of 6.7% per year. And major international organizations are also likely to high again overestimate global economic growth. In fact, 2014 is not the first time that economic growth has been overestimated; the IMF has largely overestimated the global economy since 2011, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, which specializes in U.S. economic forecasts, has even revised its estimate of potential output downward in every year since 2007, which is very rare. Basically, the overestimation of economic growth is a global group failure, which is likely to signal a decline in potential economic growth will become the "new normal" for the global economy.
Second, the end of the commodity boom cycle triggered a price crisis. So far this year, due to oversupply dragged down prices, global commodity prices fell about 5%, which is the third consecutive year of decline after the peak of commodity prices in 2011. In particular, with U.S. shale oil output exceeding OPEC's idle capacity, the pricing mechanism in the crude oil market will be largely determined by the marginal cost of U.S. shale oil. Increased U.S. shale oil production is having an increasingly far-reaching impact on global energy flows and undermining OPEC's pricing power. In the global energy oversupply and "three kill" type international game, the international oil price is more oil prices free-fall type of decline, compared with the high in June fell 48%, hit a five-year low. And this triggered a wave of commodities crash, undoubtedly the most serious event since the 2008 financial crisis.
Third, the pattern of economic recovery in various countries divergence exacerbated multiple risks. Since the 2008 international financial crisis, the United States has released liquidity through three rounds of QE
to depress Treasury yields, push up housing and stock market prices, and promote economic growth through the wealth effect. Shale oil technology innovation brought about by the release of crude oil production has also led to a decline in its dependence on energy imports, the narrowing of the trade deficit so that the U.S. economy on the track to a solid recovery. The U.S. economic growth rate in the third quarter of this year was revised sharply upward to 5.0%, the most in the past 11 years, and the unemployment rate fell back to 5.8% in October, a six-year low. Eurozone and EU GDP growth of 0.2% and 0.3% in the third quarter on a year-on-year basis, although a slight improvement over the second quarter, but still on the verge of recession, the European economy is still largely driven by the monetary cycle, the endogenous growth dynamics of a serious lack of momentum. Japan's economy from April to June on an annualized basis, quarter-on-quarter contraction of 7.1%, "Abe's economics" almost declared bankruptcy.
The divergence of the world's trend, structural divergence, cycle divergence led to further policy divergence. The Fed's withdrawal from quantitative easing, the dollar into the appreciation cycle, as well as the differentiation of monetary policy in major economies means that the funds in each economy, "big in big out" pressure will increase, which will lead to global financial asset prices, exacerbated by the volatility of the market, as well as multiple economic and financial risks.
Finally, the global economic imbalance has gradually weakened. In the past two years, developed countries to reduce the current account deficit, and emerging and developing economies to increase domestic demand (including consumption and investment), to reduce the current account surplus, the source of economic growth from exports to domestic demand, to balance of payments account as the main feature of the global trade and capital flow imbalances have been narrowed by more than one-third from the peak in 2006. Since advanced economies still account for a sizable share of global demand, weakening external demand will affect emerging and developing economies, especially those whose growth is driven by exports.
Looking ahead to 2015, the global economy as a whole will continue to recover slowly and weakly, with the United Nations forecasting that the global economy will grow by 3.1 percent in 2015. The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects the volume of global trade to grow by 4% in 2015. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expects global transnational investment to expand to $1.7 trillion in 2015, up from $1.6 trillion in 2014.
However, the global economic landscape in 2015 is subject to three major variables: the risk of global deflation due to falling energy and commodities. Weak demand, large inventories will lead to commodity prices, international oil prices in 2015 is still difficult to get rid of the continued low situation.
The second is that the dollar has entered a cycle of strength, will not only accelerate capital flight, but also further depress the economy, so that many dollar-denominated emerging economies overseas debt risk, and push up the global cost of financing. The Fed's exit of each round of QE will bring a huge impact on emerging markets, especially those with double deficits, high dependence on external financing economies, vulnerable to capital flight and currency depreciation risk.
Third, the emerging economies "spillover effect" risk is prominent. The world's major emerging economies are plagued by lagging internal structural adjustment. As a catch-up economy, most emerging economies have adopted a "factor-driven" model of increasing labor inputs, accelerating capital formation, and quantitative expansion. Twenty years ago, most emerging economies relied on "Smith growth" driven by the deepening of the global division of labor to create a massive globalization dividend. And since 2008, the deep-seated global adjustment will continue, which and domestic industrial overcapacity, output gap, will co-exist simultaneously, with the deepening of regional economic integration and trade links between countries continue to strengthen, emerging economies, "spillover effect" or will be more significant, is generally facing a slowdown in growth to force domestic reforms. The important inflection point.