AVIC Aircraft 000768
Research Institution: CITIC Securities Analyst: Feng Fuzhang Date: 2015-07-27
Shareholders to increase their holdings to show firm confidence.
Recently, Xifei Group has responded to the call of the central enterprises *** with the commitment letter to maintain the capital market on increasing their holdings of shares of central enterprise-held listed companies that are seriously deviating from their values, and has continuously increased its holdings of the company by 800,000 shares (0.031%). In addition, Lin Zuoming, chairman of AVIC Group, the company's shareholders and executives have successively increased their holdings, demonstrating a high degree of recognition of the company's value.
Military aircraft: positioning strategic air force, the future look at the mass production of the transport 20, pay attention to the progress of the far bombardment.
The company is China's only bomber, transport aircraft manufacturers, the main production models are Boom 6, Flying Leopard, transport 8 and transport 20. China's military spending for years to maintain a 2-digit growth rate, is the premise of the steady growth in demand for military aircraft, the positioning of the strategic air force, air and space as one of the air force strategic policy change in the offensive and defensive, and the neighboring situation of the tensions in the normal situation have led to strengthen the willingness of the military to buy military aircraft. The next three years military aircraft orders will maintain a steady rise in the situation.
Transport 20 is a new generation of heavy military transport aircraft independently developed by China, the total demand is expected to reach 400, 2015 to 2017 will be the transition period from test flights to mass production. We expect the earliest delivery can be realized this year. If we calculate according to 10~15 years equipped with 400 (not considering exports), the peak period can reach 20~30 annual production, mass production period can be added to the listed company 1 times the revenue, according to the calculation of net profit margin of 4%, can be added to the listed company 2 times the net profit.
Long-term, the company is a potential producer of long-range strategic bombers, its R & D production test flights and other progress will boost the company's value is expected to drive the company's performance continued steady growth.
Civil aircraft: The company is expected to become the world's largest turboprop regional aircraft maker within 10 years.
The turboprop regional airplanes of AVIC Aircraft include the Xinzhou 60, Xinzhou 600 and the Xinzhou 700 series under research and development, and the demand for the Xinzhou 60 has bottomed out, and the delivery progress has been accelerated. At this stage, the turboprop regional aircraft in the domestic operation is not ideal, the future of its market is still mainly exported to the Asia-Africa-Latin America region, is expected to be able to deliver 15 aircraft this year.
Aircraft parts and components: the new injected assets earnings steady growth, ARJ21 will soon form the incremental.
The company has undertaken a large number of aircraft parts manufacturing tasks, mainly including five aspects: First, the large aircraft C919 and AG600 parts production. Second, ARJ21 more than 85% of the manufacturing volume; three is the aircraft landing gear; four is the aircraft braking system; five is the international subcontracting production parts. We believe that the injection of large aircraft assets is not credible; the new injection of assets performance steady growth; subcontracting business continues to realize the delivery of over-expectation; ARJ21 this year, small batch delivery.
Performance forecast and valuation forecast.
The company realized earnings per share of 0.26, 0.33, 0.43 yuan in 2015~2017 respectively. Taking into account the transport 20 mass production of the company's performance to bring a huge change, as well as the future development of long-range bomber prototype progress will boost the company's value is expected to give its valuation premium. Maintain the buy rating.
CNA Power: aero-engine leader, the largest beneficiary of the two aircraft special
CNA Power 600893
Research Institution: Northeast Securities Analyst: Wu Jiangtao Compiled Date: 2015-08-07
Report Summary: AVIC Power absorbed and digested the resources of the entire manufacturing of aero-engine and stepped into a period of rapid development. 2014. AVIC industry integration of aviation engine assets injected into the AVIC power, the asset injection makes the company engine industry chain has been extended, the spectrum of models have been expanded, AVIC industry asset injection expectations have been realized, AVIC industry overall reform ideas have been made clear. We believe that the company in the digestion and absorption of the subject assets, will step into the fast lane to strengthen and expand China's aviation engine.
As China's leading aviation engine, will be the biggest beneficiary of the two machine special. AVIC industry engine plate three listed companies, AVIC power is mainly responsible for the whole machine and maintenance business, but also China's aviation engine machine the only platform, the company is expected to enjoy the rapid development of the aviation engine industry to bring dividends. In view of the industry's special type, in the government's work report focusing on the "aero-engine, gas turbine" major special projects are expected to first benefit to the industry's high-quality enterprises, AVIC Power as the industry leader will become the biggest beneficiary.
AVIC Optoelectronics: high growth, global connector leader can be expected
AVIC Optoelectronics 002179
Research Institutions: Changjiang Securities Analysts: Gao Xiaoqiang, Mo Wenyu Date: 2015-07-29
Report Key Points
Event description
AVIC Optoelectronics on July 28, 2015, released its half-year results. Released semi-annual results flash report: the company's operating income realized 2.207 billion yuan, an increase of 49.80% over the same period of the previous year, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies 256 million yuan, an increase of 91.34%. Basic earnings per share of 0.42 yuan.
Event Review
The company's operating conditions in the first half of the year were excellent, and the results of the interim report increased significantly. The company's performance has benefited from the rapid expansion of the market as well as the endogenous growth of its own business, which includes the growth of orders in the defense market, the outbreak of the new energy vehicle market and the gradual release of the company's production capacity.
Military orders constitute the growth pivot of the company's performance, the military equipment, information technology background, electrical connectivity devices and solutions to expand demand for products, orders steady high growth, the future of the defense market depends on the company from a single connector manufacturers to the integration of connectivity solutions to move forward. We are optimistic about the company's future performance continue to benefit from the growth of military products to achieve high growth.
The company is a new energy vehicle core electrical connectors and wiring harness suppliers, comprehensive coverage of JAC, Yutong, BYD and other types of new energy vehicle manufacturers, benefiting from the significant growth in domestic new energy vehicle shipments, the company's related ancillary products orders followed by multiplier development. The company has been gradually from a single connector to the wiring harness, distribution boxes and other system-level product extension, and thus the value of a single car volume highlights.
Civilian growth of the rest of the point of view is railroad connectors, the company's subsidiary Shenyang Xinghua Huayi for the national railroad field leading manufacturers, with the gradual improvement of the management, the business has the ability to benefit from the railroad industry, high growth of the east wind. In addition, the company in the communication connection programmer showed solid growth, in medical devices through the Xiangtong photoelectric breakthrough. We are optimistic about the multi-point blossoming of these areas.
CNA Optoelectronics is the leader of this round of rebound, performance is on the one hand, on the other hand, it also represents the entire AVIC Group's competitiveness in the market, the future is expected to become a global leader in the field of basic connectivity solutions, the subsequent extension of the development of the company will continue to be optimistic. In summary, we maintain the company's "recommended" rating, 2015-2017 EPS of 0.88, 1.21, 1.61 yuan.
Photonics: precision guidance, photoelectricity first
Photonics 600184
Research Institution: Haitong Securities Analysts: Xu Zhiguo, Long Hua, Xiong Zheying Date: 2015-06-18
Investment Highlights:
Military products hit a good record, divestment of non-performing assets, the performance of the full reversal. The company is a second-tier subsidiary of the weapons industry group, the current business covers photoelectric defense, photoelectric materials two plates. Among them, optoelectronic defense products mainly include: large-scale weapon systems, precision-guided guide head and optoelectronic information equipment three categories. Optoelectronic materials mainly include optical glass, ornamental glass, etc. In 2014, the company achieved operating income of 1.836 billion yuan (YOY5.34%), net profit of 61.8454 million yuan (loss of 166 million yuan in 2013), the company divested the serious loss of photovoltaic business in 2013, directly eliminating the negative impact. In terms of military products, the defense company achieved revenue of 1.453 billion yuan (YOY7.02%), military products performance is growing steadily.
Defense + materials to open the valuation space. The company's photoelectric defense business since the injection of the assets of the Xikuang Group in 2010, product orders continue to maintain the growth trend. In the field of large weapons weapons systems, with a variety of assembly assembly vehicle production, the company's positioning in this field continues to consolidate; in the field of precision guidance, the company's many models of products continue to expand the development of conventional weapons (missiles, artillery shells, etc.) to achieve a breakthrough. Subsidiary Hubei Xinhua optical information material main optical materials business, due to the optical materials downstream digital camera and traditional optical glass market demand in recent years, the double decline in optical materials product revenue decline, in 2012, the company gradually carry out business transformation, in 2013 initially open the door to the CCTV (monitoring system) market. In addition, the company is increasing security, vehicle monitoring and other high-end market development efforts.
Majority shareholders have high-quality assets and are expected to integrate. The company's parent company, Northern Optoelectronics Group, is the only large-scale optoelectronic industry sub-group under the Weapon Group. According to 2013 financial data, the group's total assets, net assets, operating income for the company's 3.32, 3.47, 2.41 times, assets are relatively high quality. Considering the company as the only listed platform under the group, under the catalyst of the reform of the weapons group "no no-go area", there is an expectation of injection in the future.
Non-public offering boosts market confidence. The company at the end of 2014 non-public offering of 45 million shares, the issue price of 27.18 yuan / share, used to supplement liquidity. Among them, the only capital operation platform under the weapons group, China military investment subscribed 22.5 million shares, military finance subscribed 9 million shares, accounting for a total of 70%, the lock-up period of 3 years. Group companies subscribed to the fixed increase, boosting market confidence.
The first "give" buy rating, target price of 42.00 yuan. It is expected that the company's 2015-2017 EPS are 0.28, 0.41, 0.51 yuan. Optical defense plate will become the most important driving force of the company's performance growth. The company's comparable listed companies in 2015 the average valuation level of about 159 times, taking into account the military industrial group "no forbidden area" reform to promote the speed, the company has integration expectations. We believe that the company's 2015 reasonable valuation range should be between 140-160 times, take the median value of 150 times PE, corresponding to the target price of 42.00 yuan in 6 months, the first time to cover, give "buy" rating.
Risk warning: technology upgrade risk, uncertainty of reform.
Aerospace science and technology: high-tech listed companies
The company is China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation Holdings, and issued in the domestic A shares of high-tech listed companies. The company's main business is the manufacture of aerospace vehicles and automobile electronic products, and other industries are household electronics, military electronics, aerospace solid launch vehicles, petroleum instrumentation and electric power equipment, etc. The company has a number of products that have won national key awards. The company has a number of products won the national key new product certificate, National Spark Award, Science and Technology Progress Award, provincial and ministerial quality products.
Aerospace Electronics: Profitability Improvement Needs to Rely on Overall Project or Asset Injection
Aerospace Electronics 600879
Research Institution: Cinda Securities Analyst: Pi Jianguo Writer Date: 2015-03-06
The company's traditional business suffers from the problem of profitability improvement. Due to the natural shrinkage of the civilian products business, the company's performance is supported by the aerospace military products business. The four traditional businesses of measurement and control communications, integrated circuits, inertial navigation and electromechanical components have a solid market share in the aerospace field. Thanks to the sustained and rapid development of China's aerospace industry, the company's operating income growth rate has remained above 15% in recent years, but the product's comprehensive gross profit margin continues to decline. The company in the aerospace industry chain is in a supporting position leading to its bargaining power of the downstream users is low, can not through price increases to resolve the pressure of rising costs.