Market analysis mainly starts from three aspects:
1, policy-oriented
2. External environment
3. Internal environment
First of all, let’s analyze policies. Policy makers basically make decisions based on the internal and external environment, because my country’s think tanks are indeed very powerful. Please don’t doubt their level. It’s hard to make mistakes in the general direction.
Funds and A-shares, from a macro point of view, a large part of the money earned from liquidity and currency issuance is how much money there is in the market.
For example, in 2018, deleveraging, no matter how good your fund manager is, you will still lose money, but you will lose less than others. If you survive 2018, most of the money will be made in 2019 and 2020. With loose money, you will rarely see funds with losses this year. If you do 2019, you will basically be in the 30s or 40s.
Keywords: "The policy will not take a sharp turn"
Chinese has a really broad and profound meaning. For this sentence, I remember that many opinions came out in the circle. I personally think that the policy does not make a sharp turn, which means "knowing how to turn". It just depends on when?
When to switch depends mainly on the recovery of economic indicators and external changes, so this is a variable and it is difficult for any economist to predict it. The best way is to watch the news broadcast in real time and click on the central bank's WeChat and official website.
If there are signs of a turn, we should begin to gradually reduce our positions.
I think the main factors that prevent a sudden turnaround are the following points. On the contrary, if the following points recover, you need to be cautious:
1, the external environment, the epidemic continues to spread, if the vaccine is based on the current production capacity, it will not be available on a large scale until at least the middle of 2021, and then there is also the issue of vaccine effectiveness, in case the virus mutates too much force? During this period, the large-scale money printing will definitely not stop. The reason why the US stock market is so bad this year is mainly due to liquidity. If the epidemic eases next year, the US stock market will return to rationality. The US emperor is in India, should we sit back and wait for death?
2. The exposure of financial crises often comes with a lag. In 2020, he may have been suppressed by many means, but that doesn't mean he won't explode. I won't go into details this time.
3. Some economic data are not ideal. The nominal GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2021 will be at a relatively high level, but the actual level of GDP will still be difficult to reach or exceed before the epidemic. As of the fourth quarter, the growth rate of social retail sales has only recovered to 4.8% year-on-year, which is still far from the 8% before the epidemic.
Therefore, our policymakers began to study various response policies.
First of all, at the Central Economic Work Conference, CICC made a keyword statistics, which I think is very obvious.