The height limit of the county shows that those in power have understood an indisputable fact: the population is about to decrease!
From 2010 to 2020, the number of births in China will decline by a staggering amount.
To put it bluntly, the counting of .
This is the first time I've ever seen the world's most popular movie. The policy is a kind of stimulant, eat, will make people excited, but, unfortunately, can always excited? The first thing you need to do is to get your hands dirty!
As early as fifteen years ago, some scholars proposed to ban birth control. Policy, unfortunately ...... really regrettable!
The world is very regular you see regardless of the developed countries in Asia, such as Japan, Western Europe and the United States, wherever the rich countries, the birth of the population are decreasing, South Korea and even negative growth, China will be how? No one dares to jump to conclusions!
The most fortunate thing is that some parts of our country have a lot to do with birth control. Policies are not too harsh, such as in northwestern Anhui and Henan, which today also has the largest labor force.
After the population reduction, most of the young adults are now more educated, so that they will flow to the city with better wages, such as the first line, or the industrial concentration area, then, most of the general county can not provide such an opportunity, the outflow of population becomes inevitable, such as the Northeast!
After the city siphoned off, the city built so many high-rise buildings who will live there? The cost of demolition is huge, no one lives there, the environment is bound to deteriorate even more, the maintenance cost is high, who will pay for it? As some articles have written, it becomes a slum!
Within five years, not only the county-level city residential high-rise can not be built, including other high-rise can not be considered! Within ten years, the second and third tier cities high-rise is also best considered carefully! The politicians in power think twice!
In fact, the Ministry of Housing and Construction has put the reason out, mainly for safety issues.
High building renovation used a lot of combustible materials, the building is also distributed inside a large number of wires and cables, once the fire formed, the fire will be very rapid. In many counties, the fire department's ladder can't reach that height, and if a fire occurs, it can't be rescued.
Of course, in addition to this, although high-rise buildings can effectively utilize the land area, but in fact, because the population is moving to the city, so many counties are not bad this area. Some county governments have blindly approved the construction of residential high-rise buildings in order to make the county look grand and imposing, not realizing that construction of high-rise buildings costs a lot of resources, and if no one buys and lives in them after they are built, it will be a huge waste! Many of the county buildings are just priced to sell, and some of the county prices have been similar to the city, so people would rather go to the city to buy a house.
Therefore, the Ministry of Housing and Construction introduced this policy, one for the safety of county residents, and the other to reduce the waste of resources.
The original article related to this policy is as follows:
Nowadays, the height limit in the county is really a very common problem. So why is there a height limit and what is the reason behind it, we can analyze it from different angles.
China's housing prices have always been high, and even some of the county's housing prices can be equal to the city, which is a very abnormal thing, because no matter from which side, the county's infrastructure and education and health care, etc., are not as good as the urban areas, then housing prices certainly should not be equal to the city.
But now this is the case, because part of the county building is also a big problem, such as the county development space is limited, if you rely on the real estate industry alone, it is difficult to pull up the local economic development.
First, the height of the county residential building to match the fire rescue capabilities.
This is better understood, because the height of the county residential building needs to match the fire rescue capabilities, that is, in big cities there are a lot of high-rise buildings, often are 50 or 60 layers or hundreds of layers, then if a fire occurs in a high-rise building, for the user, it is indeed a very dangerous thing, so the state requires that the height of the county's residential building needs to be matched with the fire rescue capabilities up.
The second thing is that the county has to be able to provide a fire rescue service.
Second, the county's new residential 6-story mainly 6-story and the following residential 6-story should account for no less than 75%.
The current pattern of new residential construction in the county, should be mainly six-story, that is, six-story buildings, should occupy 75% of the county below, so that the provisions of the county limit the high-rise buildings in the nature of the county will be reduced.
Third, the county's new residential maximum of no more than 18 floors
This is also the State Department of Architecture's regulations, requiring the need for new buildings in the county should not exceed 18 floors, then the need for construction of 18-story building, need to get a full drink demonstration, and also need to strengthen the fire rescue and equipment, municipal supporting infrastructure.
For most people, living in a high-rise building is a very "high" look.
But often, these high-rise buildings, really is the outside of the gold and jade, the inside is still a lot of shortcomings.
More safety hazards
If the user lives in a high-rise building, the fire hazards need to be highly valued, because if there is a fire, then the risk of a high-rise building is particularly high.
Plus now the building fire configuration is generally in the 17th floor, then you can imagine, if you live in more than thirty floors, a fire is a particularly serious disaster. Coupled with the high building, the space is narrow, dense, so there are many safety hazards.
Easy to suffer or infectious diseases
There is also the public **** medical events, which is also a very important thing, if a fire in a high building can also be an emergency rescue, then if a disease or infectious disease occurs, the high-rise is also particularly easy to be infected.
Local small developers, risk awareness is not high
A lot of counties, in fact, building capacity is very general, basically using local small developers, then for these small developers, the management of funds is limited, and the awareness of the wind control is not high, it is very easy to cause the building rotten.
A few years ago, I was in a county, because the developer ran away, the occurrence of high-rise building rotten situation, the last really impact is particularly large, the building rotten no one to manage, the rights and interests of buyers can not be protected.
The government needs more land revenue
Now most of the counties in the country originally belonged to the kind of situation where there is a lot of land and a lot of people, so if you want to build a building, in fact, there is no shortage of land, but if you let the developers, all the buildings into high-rise, then it will make all the residents to concentrate, and then the developer for the land demand becomes very low. The demand for land by developers becomes very low.
Then it will create a problem that there is a surplus of land, and the less land the local government sells, the less land finance there will be, which is not suitable or conducive to the development of the county.
In general, the buildings we buy, are 70 years of life, which means that more than this year, there will be safety hazards, if the housing is too dilapidated, will not be able to move in.
And if the time is too long, then the corresponding facilities, you need to go up, such as the building's warmth layer, heating, elevator, wiring, etc., these are needed to replace, and replace these is a particularly large amount of engineering works.
Users of high-rise buildings need to change
If it is placed in the past, then everyone may need to like to buy high-rise buildings, but now we all feel that the lower level is better, low-rise buildings instead of more expensive. So some of the people with average income are only able to buy high-rise buildings.
Different places, like living environment is different, for example, developed countries like low-density small houses, while the domestic, everyone likes to live in high-rise buildings. In fact, this is also the social climate has a certain relationship, but the carrot and green vegetables have their own favorites.
For the county house, in fact, is the need to pay attention to a quality, the need to live comfortably, so or choose the lower level is better, then we will choose high-rise or low-rise.
In recent years, more and more high-rise buildings in small counties, look and big cities almost.
But at night, looking at the few night lights in the buildings, you know how high the vacancy rate is.
Most of these unused houses are purchased by the rural population, who occasionally go home for a short stay during the Chinese New Year, but are usually left vacant.
Although there are a lot of high-rise buildings in the county, it's a waste to leave them empty.
On March 29, the Ministry of Housing and Construction proposed that the height of residential buildings in the county will be limited, and the new residential buildings will be mainly 6-story, with the proportion of 6-story and the following residential buildings accounting for no less than 75%. At the same time, the maximum number of floors of new residential buildings in the county shall not be higher than 18 floors.
This shows that the future of the county house is completely screwed up.
Why the county house will be "high limit"?
There is a market for taller buildings in the county
American scholar Glazer in the book "The Triumph of the City", with a large amount of data to prove a central point:
The city is the greatest invention of mankind, because of the clustering of the population, living in a high rise, which improves the efficiency of production, reduces the cost and impact on nature, and improves the quality of life of the people. costs and impact on nature, thus making it easy to achieve economic prosperity.
So the more developed the place, the higher the house, such as Beijing China World Trade Center, Shanghai Lujiazui, Guangzhou Zhujiang New City, Shenzhen Futian central business district, these are the extremes of China's urban development.
Along with the rise of high-rise buildings in first-tier cities, these years, second-tier cities are also one after another in the construction of high-rise buildings, so small counties can not sit still.
Starting in 2015, under the impetus of the real estate tide, a large number of high-rise residential buildings have risen in small counties across the country.
On the one hand, the technology of high-rise construction became easier and easier and kept sinking into counties.
On the other hand, developers are willing to build taller buildings to save on land costs and create more revenue by building more floors on the same area of land.
Moreover, rich people in the county generally like to live in tall buildings, and in the social circle of acquaintances, it forms the wind of comparison, the higher the more face.
The buyers and sellers are on the same page, and the high-rise residential business in the county is booming.
But with more and more high-rise buildings in the county, its disadvantages are also gradually revealed.
Why do we need to "limit the height"
High-rise residential looks "high", in fact, there are many fatal shortcomings itself.
First of all, the safety risk is high.
If there is a fire, the risk is very great, now the fire rescue, firefighting equipment are basically only to the 17th floor or so. And because of the high density of people in high-rise housing, public **** space is narrow, the fire trucks may not even be able to enter the neighborhood.
Some cities, because the floor is too high, the fire trucks arrived, can only rescue the middle and lower floors, high-level can not help.
Because high-rise housing is so densely populated and has so little space, it's easier for infectious diseases to spread when they do.
Secondly, the county built a high risk of high-rise buildings.
In the county, building is mainly local small developers, capital management ability in general, wind control awareness is not high.
In recent years, the county high-rise residential rot is very much the case. High-rise rotten after the developer ran away, the county does not care, the owners of the right to no avail, can only continue to "sue", resulting in a very bad impact.
Most of the counties in the country have been less land, the population outflow, want to cover the building is not a lack of land. Developers use high-rise buildings to centralize people, land demand is suddenly much less, for the development of a serious surplus of land.
The less land the local government sells, the less land finances, not conducive to the development of the county.
Again, the high-rise residential decay rate is high.
Nowadays, the service life of civil buildings is generally 50 years or 70 years, more than this age, there will be a high risk of safety hazards, too dilapidated for normal use.
For example: the warmth layer, heating, wires, elevators, water pipes, etc. aging; wall rupture, house leakage, etc., this situation either repair or update, the actual operation is also very troublesome.
Basically, to repair is also a major repair, remodeling, renovation of the cost is very high, but also need the majority of owners agree. After all, it's hard to reach **** knowledge when you need to come up with your own money for something where everyone's interests are not aligned and their perceptions are not the same.
So there are many problems with high-rise housing in the county.
Changes in demand
High-rise housing is abundant in first- and second-tier cities, but the really rich prefer to live in small houses or villas.
For example, in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, in addition to the super high-rise, river-view houses built by brand-name developers, and luxury houses with swimming pools on the roof, other middle- and high-end neighborhoods, the lower the floor is built, the more expensive it is.
And the average citizen is forced to choose to buy high-rise housing due to the pressure of limited income.
In big cities, it is common for villas to be priced higher than small houses, for small houses to be priced higher than small high-rises, and for small high-rises to be priced higher than super high-rises.
Because the lower the house is built, the higher the cost of land, and the better the quality of living.
Small cities in developed countries are dominated by low-density small houses, while in China, the smaller the place, the more rich people like to live in high-rise housing.
This is related to a bad social culture.
The county "high limit", for the county people is good, both compressed the interests of developers, but also improve the security of residents to buy and quality of life.
I believe that with the implementation of the policy of limiting the height of the county residents gradually realize that the first and second tier cities, low-rise housing is more expensive, more suitable for living, their concepts will gradually change.
And thus the demand will change.
For the county house, its own residential attributes are very important, and the residence should pay attention to the quality, live comfortably.
Optimizing the county's living environment and advocating the reduction of high-rise housing is particularly important.
The first is because the county has little potential for future development, because urbanization is not only high-rise buildings, there must be supporting services, first of all, to ensure that the urban population have classes, so that they can eat, and secondly, there is the people's recreation, education, health care and other ancillary facilities. But a county usually only 100,000 or so population is already too much, even if the vast rural population is counted, but only a million or so people, but the county obviously can not drive all the rural population to the city, but does not have the ability to attract the population of other cities to come over, and finally can only be empty skyscrapers, but there is no population to support, which leads to a great waste of resources, but did not improve the people's sense of well-being, and at the same time will also create a class conflict, because there are people in the local community. Class conflicts, because where there are people, there is a jianghu, and the most widely circulated jianghu is the yuer yu wei gui (虞我诈).
The second is because the country is now also found, and not the more urbanized, high-rise buildings everywhere, the more developed the country, but there will be a whole lot of urbanization problems, so the country is now to stop the urbanization of counties, and then a little bit of to find out, after all, the development of our development has been detached from the Western system, need to find out little by little, crossing the river by touching the stones or cautious! point good, or step big easy to pull to the egg, the last pain or their own, but this is just a normal policy change, the future is not allowed to change, like the push of the characteristics of the new countryside, is not also a sudden stop, and then pushed the urbanization, so there is no need to make a big fuss, not allowed to change the policy on the next day to come.
Third is the decline in population, and the arrival of aging, we can think, the future population is less and less, but the age of aging has come, so many old people flocked to the city, and these old people do not have the ability to work again, they flocked to the city, but also need to feed, clothe, shelter and transport, but also need to take care of people, if these old people to stay in the countryside, the state can turn a blind eye to this, as long as starvation is not on the line, and in the rural areas, the state can be a good idea, but also in the rural areas, the state can be a good idea. As long as the starvation does not die on the line, and in the countryside want to starve to death is not easy, but they went to the city can be different, is really likely to be a big problem, then the country will have to put a lot of effort to solve the problem of these people's lives, and a little bit of a solution is not good, light in the country caused by the topic, the heavy will be caused by a furor in the international community, a serious damage to the country's image is not impossible.
On the other hand, because of the decline in births, the total population of the country is already inevitable, that and then vigorously develop the county high-rise buildings have no meaning, because there is not enough population to support the development of the county to develop, and only young people need to provide support for the existing big cities, and then the young people flocked to the big cities is also inevitable, in that case, then there is no need to develop the county. There is no need to develop the county's urbanization, the county's future to assume the training of talent base, after all, now the rural education system has been completely destroyed, only the county there is a little education concept, the country only need the county to train talents on the good, do not need the county to assume the future of these talents, and young people in the county development opportunities are limited, in the county can not be the country want to become a talent.
Therefore, the policy of county high limit is still very necessary, but the meaning behind the specific, there should still be many interpretations, but in general, away from the population reduction, the rational use of resources and the direction of the country's policy development, as for the good or bad, or to wait a few more decades, own newcomers said.
County "height limit", refers to the state has an exposure draft, the county new residential buildings shall not exceed 18 floors. The reason is:
1, China's population is aging, high-level is not suitable for the elderly to live.
2, the high vacancy rate of high-rise buildings, can no longer blindly new.
3, too high a floor to the fire, safety and other greater pressure.
4, the county urbanization development is not enough to support too many high-rise buildings.
5, high-rise increasingly uncompetitive, houses and small high more sought after.
The reason behind should be a means of regulation to prevent the property market bubble serious, accelerating the expansion of the false prosperity of real estate. As well as the sharp decline in the population of newborns and the future of the population aging and other factors do not support the future of high prices, and a steady stream of high-rise buildings.
First of all, said the high limit is because of security reasons in fact, this theory does not hold, to say that the population is dense and the floor of the high, surely the city than the county even. The safety is not guaranteed. It is possible to aggravate this aspect of the legal system of security. Or let the developers to build the city to build these high-rise, can be aggravated to train the property personal quality, so this aspect of the security factor is actually not established.
County high limit policy, in fact, is also to prevent the waste of resources in the future, now the county high-level occupancy rate is far lower than the city, and even a lot of high-level built just sold out pressure root no one to live in, are in the hoarding waiting for the price of housing prices to rise, said that the house is just in demand, but the need for people who can not afford to buy, buy up also do not live, is an asset investment, as long as other people can not afford to buy, buy up the person will be The people who can afford to buy will be able to buy a steady stream of houses and hoard them, to be sold later to those who struggle for the rest of their lives.
I hope that in the future, some of the "empty cities", "empty buildings", "ghost buildings" and so on will be less.
Secondly, the previous urbanization led to a massive influx of rural population into the city, the rural farming people greatly reduced, and now the village youth labor force is very small, most of them go out to work, the county housing prices in the city to catch up with the city's housing prices, which will lead to a further sharp decline in the rural labor force. Population distribution will again be seriously imbalanced, the future of farming less, less food. Less food, food prices rise, prices in disguise also rose. Slowly inflation is formed.
County limit high, the reason behind should be multi-faceted, the first is conducive to stabilize the county housing prices, the same land to build houses less, developers increased costs, housing prices are unlikely to plummet, at the same time, the cost of increasing such as, is conducive to inhibit the current momentum of overheating of real estate, so that the hot money flows into the manufacturing sector, and boosting the economy's high-quality development. The second is conducive to the construction of a more quality county human settlements, floor limit, lighting and ventilation living comfort is higher, more secure. The third is conducive to reducing the cost of housing demolition after a number of years.
The county to build high buildings, mainly developers are willing to build high buildings, can save land costs, to create more benefits, as well as high-rise construction technology is getting easier and easier, from the big cities to the county sink
The reasons for the high limit
1. There are greater security risks: mainly from fire or infectious diseases these aspects
2. Larger: the county building may be a number of small developers, risk control awareness is not high, however, resulting in a rotten building conditions, will cause a bad impact
3. High failure rate of high-rise buildings: supporting facilities (water pipes and wires and heating, etc.) is easy to aging problems, remodeling and refurbishment difficulties
1. County people are limited, and some of the current house needs to go to the inventory. The financial risk of a larger volume of properties is also large.
2. The height limit also reduces construction costs, which is conducive to price stability. Of course, land prices will also change.
3. County houses also have room for improvement. After all, high-rise will affect the quality of living.