(I) economic growth rate continues to maintain the level of 2000
GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2001 was 8.1%, a slight increase over 2000. in April-May, the industrial growth rate of the downward trend (see Fig. 1), and if the trend continues in June, and taking into account the impact of the reduction in agricultural production of summer grains, it is expected that the first half of the GDP growth rate will be somewhat lower, but will still be close to 8 percent.?
Meanwhile, economic efficiency has improved markedly. industrial enterprises realized profits in January-April that were 35.1 percent higher than in the same period a year earlier.?
(2) Prices remain at a low level
In January-May 2001, the cumulative average of the consumer price index rose by 1.1 percent over the same period of the previous year. According to the analysis, it was mainly affected by the rising prices of services and the rising prices of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, eggs, poultry and freshwater fish. Prices of industrial consumer goods continued to decline steadily. In April, prices of household equipment and services, and prices of health care and personal goods fell by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively compared with the previous month. in May, with the decline in the price of fresh vegetables, the consumer price index fell by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month. On the other hand, factory prices of industrial goods, which had stopped falling and rebounded since January 2000, once again showed a steady but slight decline in April 2001, dropping slightly by 0.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. Prices of the means of production rose by 0.4% compared with the same month of the previous year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points less than in March. The above situation shows that the low price hovering situation has not ended, and the main influence on the price level change is the non-recurrent factors other than supply and demand.
(3) Good balance of payments situation
Table 1: Balance of payments current account and capital and financial account balance Unit: USD billion
The data in the above table show that, except for a few years since 1995, China's balance of payments has maintained a surplus in both current and capital and financial accounts, and the country's balance of payments is in a good position.
Foreign trade and import and export, after entering 2001, the growth rate slowed down obviously due to the impact of the world economic decline and the high base of the previous year. from January to May, foreign trade export grew by 11% year-on-year, a decrease of 25.8 percentage points compared with the same period of the previous year, while the foreign trade import grew by 16.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 19.1 percentage points compared with the same period of the previous year. Trade surplus of 8.446 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 2.012 billion U.S. dollars over the same period last year. Taken together, foreign trade continued to maintain a pattern of surplus, and continued to support the favorable situation of the balance of payments. It is worth noting that the surplus is shrinking...?
In terms of utilizing foreign investment, from January to April 2001, the contracted investment amounted to 20.2 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 38.3 percent; the actual utilization of foreign direct investment amounted to 10.9 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 12.4 percent. Utilization of foreign investment situation improved, becoming a positive factor to support the balance of payments situation.
At the end of May, 2001, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded 170 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of more than 10 billion U.S. dollars over the beginning of the year. The RMB exchange rate continued to remain stable. Taken together, the balance of payments continues to be in a good situation.?
(4) The employment situation is relatively severe
At present, there are about 16 million new entrants to the working age population in China every year, of which there are about 6 million in towns and cities. During the period 1996-2000, however, the average annual increase in the number of people employed in China's society was only 5.75 million, of which the average annual increase in towns was only 3.65 million. The increase in the number of people in the workforce has been much slower than the increase in the working-age population. Not only that, but there have also been relatively strong structural adjustments in the workforce. The first is the transfer of workers from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry or to agriculture; from 1997 to 1999, the number of workers in the secondary industry fell by 2.6 million, while the number of workers in the tertiary industry increased by 6.12 million, and the number of workers in the primary industry increased by 6.34 million. Secondly, there has been a shift from urban State-owned and collective economic units to units under other forms of ownership; from 1997 to 1999, the number of workers in urban State-owned units fell by 24.72 million, and the number of workers in urban collective units fell by 11.71 million. When the total number of jobs was in short supply and the structure of the workforce was substantially adjusted, the combination of laid-off workers and the newly employed population, as well as the labor force moving from the countryside to the cities, made the employment situation very grim; in 2000, the number of newly employed urban workers was only 2.6 million, or less than half of the newly employed working-age population in the cities, and the number of laid-off workers in state-owned enterprises was 6.57 million; only 361 million of them were arranged for through re-employment. In 2000, only 2.6 million people were employed in urban areas, less than half of the new urban working-age population. From these indicators, there is no sign of easing the severe employment situation.
Summarizing the above, after entering 2001, China's economy has continued to maintain the growth level of 2000, but the contradiction of insufficient demand is still relatively prominent, prices continue to hover at a low level; the balance of payments is in good condition; and the problem of employment is prominent, which has a greater impact on social stability. The overall assessment is that the difficult situation of China's economy is beginning to be initially reversed, but there is still a big gap to fully get rid of...?
To recognize China's current economic situation, it is important to grasp the changes in the background environment of economic growth, as well as the new characteristics of China's economic growth due to these changes, new contradictions and new regulatory policy objectives.