Figure 1: U.S. reorganization of the supply chain is a big picture
First, the economic and trade relations are no longer the ballast of the U.S.-China relations
Before 2017, the domestic popular description of the U.S.-China relations, "economic and trade relations is the ballast of the U.S.-China relations," when the U.S. and China are each other's top trading partners, the two sides from the economic and trade relations, the U.S. and China are the top trading partners. partners, both sides from the economic and trade relations benefit far more than damage, after Trump announced that China and the United States are strategic competitors, many scholars still believe that Wall Street, the U.S. business community and many legislators will not really choose to fall out with China, because they must take into account the economic and trade relations between China and the U.S. that affect the livelihood of U.S. nationals, as long as the economic and trade relations are in the relationship between China and the United States can not be bad anywhere, however, the beginning of 2017, Trump rogue group to tariffs as a weapon brazenly launched a trade war, the relationship between the two governments to achieve a 180-degree turn, can be said to be a hard hit on the face of these scholars in the country, to the start of the Sino-US exchange, many people realized that the original Sino-US relationship is the ballast of economic and trade relations rather than the opposite, the US government can do whatever it wants with no regard to the economic interests of the United States, and the United States and China want to be far from any economic interests, but political interests, is to defy all odds to beat you into a thousand years old!
In fact, people who understand the internal operation mechanism of American politics are clear that Trump's White House makes this kind of decision is very normal, because American politicians are far less interested in economic interests than in political interests, and the successive U.S. presidents and key post officials' university majors are dominated by political science, jurisprudence, and military science, and the basic characteristic of these people is that they are rigidly cerebral, with serious ideological stereotypes, shouting every day about Social justice and cake sharing, but never good at making the cake bigger. Although there are superb economists in the United States, they mainly work in official think tanks or large commercial companies, and they also appear in the White House as staff officers, with extremely limited influence on political decision-making, and Trump's team of dog-heads is no exception, because when they see that China is trying to catch up with the United States, their first priority is not to consider the economic interests of the United States but to consider the loss of the United States' dominant position in the world's political system. The "trade war" strategy is detrimental to others and not to oneself. And China is the complete opposite, scholars and officials in science and engineering and economics background mostly, long-term in the construction of the market economy as the center of the idea of guidance, the frontiers of science and technology technology, economic development, interest is quite strong, the brain is thinking about the most is the GDP, employment and scientific and technological development, and naturally, the United States and China economic and trade relations is very important to see the two sides of the difference in this mode of thinking, which has led to the situation of the year's miscalculation.
Figure 2 Biden is no more pro-China than Trump
Biden has not been able to break out of this circle, either. His undergraduate majors were in political science and history, his doctorate is in law, and his first job was as a lawyer, and then he entered politics as a senator in the state of Delaware, so what he has gained from these experiences is not a head for economics, but for political science, historical thinking, and ideological bias. As a result, the possibility of expecting him to be softer than Trump on relations with China is not great. Sure enough, once Biden came to power, the first solution was not to abolish Trump's trade war and reunite with China to save the U.S. economy, but to directly engage in an alliance with various allies to exert joint pressure on China, and continue to push forward the "delinking" and the reorganization of the national supply chain. So far, we can see, although by now the U.S.-China economic and trade relations are still very important, the amount is still very large, but the U.S.-China decoupling, the U.S. reorganization of the global supply chain is afraid of sooner or later, and once the U.S. supply chain reorganization is completed, it is likely to be the day of the action against China!
Second, the two camps are on the verge of emergence
The reason for the United States to reorganize the supply chain, in addition to the reasons for the suppression of China, China excluded from the system of developed countries, the most realistic considerations in order to defend against the new global risks, especially in the new crown epidemic, the United States suddenly found that, as the world's first big country, even the most capital of its medical supplies and equipment to rely on a large number of imports of China, and the global chip supply tension is a direct impact on the United States, but also the United States, the United States of America, the world's largest country in the world. Chip supply tension is a direct impact on the United States "Internet +" industry development strategy rhythm, to be fair, this is the United States industrial hollowing out over the years caused by, and not China's reasons, but based on the pattern of world power has been irreversible to transform into multipolar, by the Western countries to form a camp again, restructuring the reliable supply chain It becomes very necessary, but the result of the United States to do so, is bound to be the world again like the Cold War, the emergence of two camps.
On May 21, the European Parliament decided to freeze the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CECA), which means that Europe, like the United States, is also using ideology as an additional condition for economic cooperation to formulate a new policy towards China, and in the countries within Europe, France has made it clear that it is a competitor with China, and it is unlikely that the deterioration of Sino-British relations since 2019 can be undone, and the current European Parliament collectively made such a decision, marking the United States and Europe once again stand together, together with the United States inherent allies Australia, Japan and potential allies India, a new Western camp has been called.
Not coincidentally, in April, China and Iran signed a 25-year cooperation agreement, decided to strengthen comprehensive economic and trade relations between the two sides, directly nullify the U.S. sanctions against Iran, plus Iran and Russia, China and Russia's special relationship, a standing in the Asia-Europe continent, China, Russia and Iran as the core of the three countries in the East camp has also appeared, of course, the potential members of this union! Far more than these three countries, but also to include North Korea, the five Central Asian countries, Syria and Belarus, in general, the Eurasian continent has formed a new camp capable of competing with the Western camp, from an economic point of view, in this camp, China is a high-end manufacturing and information technology provider, other countries are raw materials provider, able to form an internal cycle.
Figure 3 The two camps will re-emerge
The emergence of these two camps does not mean that the world is going to re-enter the Cold War, because China has not shown external territorial ambitions or exported its revolution, and relations with many countries in the Western camp are still quite good, and there are extremely important economic and trade relations, for example, with Germany, which means that the relationship between the two camps will be mainly competition rather than confrontation. This means that the relationship between the two camps will be primarily one of competition rather than confrontation, and that this competition will not only be economic, but will spread to all levels: technological, institutional, ideological, etc.
As the leader of the Western camp, the United States knows very well that once the economic and trade relations between the Eastern camp and the Western camp weakened, then the confrontation between the two sides will become more intense, and the Western European allies will stand more firmly on the side of the U.S. Therefore, the promotion of the two camps decoupled from the U.S. is the United States of America's grand strategy, and only then, in order to pull the allies together with the launch of the group beatings of China, China's development momentum will be stifled. Continue to maintain the position of the world's first power, after all, now China is not the United States alone can solve.
Third, when and where to do it?
As I said earlier, the day that China and the Western countries are off the table is likely to be the day that the United States will take action against China, so the United States will take action against China in when and where? My speculation is that it should be in about 10 years, one is the United States to reorganize the global industrial chain takes time, just a few years by no means possible, and now, although often in the news to see a large number of U.S. companies to withdraw from China, but from the data, most of the withdrawal of low-end industrial companies, the transfer of the region is often Southeast Asia rather than the U.S. expectations of the Western camp countries, most U.S. companies do not want to go, the decoupling of the short-term difficult to achieve! Second, the grand strategy of decoupling and then taking action against China cannot go through the turbulence of political elections again, and as things stand now, because of Trump's nonsense, *** and the party may not be able to run successfully for 12 years, from Biden to Harris, the Democratic Party will usher in a super-long period of governance, the United States has enough time and patience; Third, the most sensitive issue of Taiwan between China and the United States, the West expects that it may be ushered in around 2030 solution opportunity, the United States must be ready before that, March 10, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Davidson also made a similar speculation.
Figure 4 The United States may launch a military strike against China
According to the planning of some U.S. think tanks, there are two options for the location of the strike against China, one is the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, and the main way may be a military clash or a military blockade, but it is clear that if the United States does so, other countries in the Eastern camp may make trouble in other directions, making it difficult for the West to win in all directions. Secondly, in the Middle East and the Indian Ocean, the Western camp to do so can weaken the geographical advantage of the military in the vicinity of China, the first to do away with Iran and Central Asian countries, the occupation of the Middle East, to break the weakest link in the Eastern camp, weakening the supply of resources in China, and then with the blockade of the sea transportation line, forcing China and Russia to yield.
In response to the United States this evil intention, our country to do is, first continue to maintain strong economic and trade relations with U.S. allies to products and costs against the U.S. political pressure, forcing these allies to throw caution to the wind, do not dare to military conflict with China, weakening the U.S. influence in the Western camp; the second is to resolve the issue of Taiwan as soon as possible to break the U.S. blockade in the Asia-Pacific region, breaking the confidence of the Asia-Pacific countries to follow the U.S. against China. The second is to solve the Taiwan issue as early as possible, breaking the U.S. blockade in the Asia-Pacific region and shattering the confidence of Asia-Pacific countries in following the U.S. to confront China. Then supplemented by various types of economic and regional cooperation strategies, the establishment of East Asia **** the same body, the United States excluded, to ensure the absolute security of China's neighborhood, so that even if you can not win in the Middle East, but also will not have too great an impact on China.