(1) National Risk Evaluation Model for the Development and Utilization of Overseas Oil and Gas Resources
Through collecting, organizing, analyzing and evaluating various risk factors of the major oil and gas exporting countries, the energy risk of the oil and gas exporting countries is evaluated on the basis of the establishment of the national risk indicator system for oil and gas and other energy products. Combined with the current situation of China's oil and gas imports, we will seek for the best current oil and gas import program, and determine the best cooperation method for China to adopt according to the risk characteristics of different oil and gas exporting countries, so as to provide policy suggestions for the safety of China's oil imports and to guarantee the stable growth of the national economy.
(2) Supply Risk Evaluation Model of Overseas Oil and Gas Exporting Countries
Based on literature research and expert interviews, we analyze the main uncertain factors affecting China's sustainable and stable supply of overseas oil and gas; based on the analysis of the uncertain factors, we establish an evaluation index system for the risk of overseas oil and gas supply; and we construct a risk supply model to evaluate and classify risk areas in order to assess the risk of China's overseas oil and gas supply, with a view to providing policy recommendations to ensure the security of China's oil imports and the stable growth of national economy. It also builds an overseas oil and gas risk supply model, evaluates the risk of China's overseas oil and gas supply and divides the risk areas, in order to provide decision support for Chinese oil and gas enterprises to go abroad.
(3) Demand Risk Evaluation Model for the Development and Utilization of Global Oil and Gas Resources
Demand risk analysis aims to examine the uncertainties in the development of future oil and gas resource demand, and to explore how to carry out demand risk control. Based on the main influencing factors of energy demand, an indicator system for analyzing the uncertainty of future oil and gas demand is constructed; on the basis of the indicator system, a global multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed for describing the future global oil and gas demand and demand structure; the model is used to analyze the possible fluctuations of oil and gas demand and demand structure of major countries and the world in the future under all kinds of possible economic, demographic, technological, and policy disruptions relative to the base The model is used to analyze the potential fluctuations in oil and gas demand and demand structure in major countries and globally under various possible future economic, demographic, technological, and policy disruptions relative to a baseline scenario; and to assign risk ratings to the various fluctuations.
(4) Transportation Risk Evaluation Model for the Development and Utilization of Overseas Oil and Gas Resources
Adopting a comprehensive and integrated research method that combines quantitative and qualitative research methods, based on statistical data and quantitative evaluation models, combined with the empirical judgment of experts, and taking into account a number of factors, including port risks of oil and gas-exporting countries, risks of transportation routes, and risks of the shipping companies that carry out the task of oil and gas transportation, the study focuses on the evaluation of risks in marine oil and gas transportation. The study focuses on the evaluation of the risk of marine oil and gas transportation.
(5) International Oil and Gas Market Risk Evaluation Model
Oil market risk evaluation mainly includes oil market systematic risk evaluation, oil price prediction, oil market VaR (Value-at-Risk) risk prediction, evaluation of investment value of national oil resources, and oil market merger and acquisition risk in five parts, whose main contents are as follows:
1) Evaluation of oil market systematic risk: oil market systematic risk refers to the uncertainty of oil prices caused by oil market factors (non-geopolitical, military conflicts, weather changes and other factors), and the evaluation of oil market systematic risk mainly evaluates the risk of overseas investment returns of China's petroleum enterprises due to the uncertainty of oil prices.
2) Oil price prediction: simulation prediction of oil price changes using various modeling methods such as wavelet analysis and multi-scale analysis.
3) Oil Market VaR Risk Forecasting: using historical simulation methods to construct VaR models for forecasting and evaluating oil market risks.
4) Evaluation of investment value of national oil resources based on real options: Evaluate the investment value of oil resources of different countries based on the method of real options.
5) Risk evaluation of overseas merger and acquisition projects of oil companies: the fuzzy comprehensive judgment combining the AHP method with the fuzzy measurement method is used to simulate and evaluate the risk of overseas mergers and acquisitions of oil companies.
(6) Cross-border Pipeline Risk Evaluation Model for Overseas Oil and Gas Resource Exploitation and Utilization
Study the risk management system of cross-border oil and gas pipeline projects in the whole process of its life cycle, including risk identification, risk evaluation and risk control. Based on the project life cycle theory and the latest management concepts put forward by the domestic and international oil and gas pipeline management community, the study divides the risk management of cross-border oil and gas pipeline projects into three different phases: pre-construction phase, construction phase, and operation phase, and then carries out risk identification, risk evaluation, and puts forward the risk control and avoidance strategies respectively, so as to establish the "Cross-border Oil and Gas Pipeline Risk Management System Based on Integrity Management". management system based on integrity management".
(7) Research on Technical Risk Rating of Overseas Oil and Gas Resources Development and Utilization
The main contents of the research include mining policies and regulations, capital market situation of overseas mineral resources development and utilization; based on theories and methods of complexity science, such as system dynamics method or other methods, the establishment of China's neighboring countries' metal mineral resources (mainly iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and other six kinds of mineral resources in the key areas of neighboring countries), and the establishment of "risk management system based on integrity management of cross-border oil and gas pipelines", Aluminum, lead, zinc and other six important mineral resources) of the technical and economic evaluation methods; at the same time, using the option evaluation method or other evaluation methods, evaluate and analyze the typical cases of prospecting or mining rights of metal mineral resources in China's neighboring countries, and put forward guiding references for the domestic enterprises to engage in the development and utilization of metal mineral resources in China's neighboring countries.
(8) Overall Design and Model Development of Risk Management System
Developing a risk management system for the development and utilization of overseas oil and gas resources with systematic independent intellectual property rights, which should be in line with the rules of the international market, support the dynamic decision-making and simulation of overseas development policies, and reveal the relationship between energy and social development, so as to serve China's strategic planning of the utilization of overseas oil and gas resources and the formulation of the overseas development strategies and relevant industrial policies for enterprises. The system should serve the strategic planning of China's overseas oil and gas resources utilization, the overseas development strategy of enterprises and the formulation of related industrial policies, and provide analysis and support functions for decision-making on the development and utilization of overseas oil and gas resources at multiple levels, including macro, strategic and tactical levels.
The risk management system mainly consists of eight sub-functional modules, which are used to display the modeling methods and evaluation results of the previous research. The seven sub-modules of country risk, market risk, supply risk, demand risk, transportation risk, pipeline risk, and technical and economic evaluation are the front-end display modules, which provide users with the risk assessment values of each module and display the relevant data of each module, so that the users can comprehensively evaluate the risk level of the development and utilization of the resources through the viewing of the risk information of these seven sub-modules.
Considering the functional requirements of each module and displaying various risk assessment information, we adopt different schemes to design the functions of each module, and display them comprehensively through different ways such as GIS and professional software, so that the users can simply and intuitively obtain the information they need from the system. The above 7 modules are common modules for all users. Through the friendly interface to provide end-users with sufficient and reliable information to support users to make effective risk decisions.