How to conduct safety risk assessment for large-scale performances of about 30,000 people

With the rapid development of China's economy, the degree of internationalization continues to increase, sports events, cultural performances, exhibitions, parks and other large-scale activities are increasing day by day. Accompanied by the increase in large-scale activities, large-scale activities of public **** safety also increasingly attracted social attention, of which risk assessment is the core and key to large-scale activities of public **** safety. Large-scale activities of public **** safety risk assessment can make the organizer to minimize the security risk hazards and losses, with the most effective security cost investment, to obtain the safety of the activities of the operation and benefits. First, the meaning of large-scale activities of public **** security risk assessment China's "Regulations on the Safety Management of Large-scale Mass Events" stipulates that the public for the public to organize each expected to participate in more than 1,000 people in sports competitions, concerts, concerts and other cultural and artistic performances, exhibitions, exhibitions and sales activities, parks, lanterns, temples, fairs, fireworks, such as activities, job fairs, lottery sales, etc. is a large-scale event. Events such as garden tours, lantern fairs, temple fairs, flower fairs, fireworks displays, job fairs, lottery sales, etc. are considered large-scale events. Many other scholars and organizations have also put forward the concept of large-scale activities from different perspectives. The Regulations on the Safety Management of Large-scale Social Activities in Beijing define large-scale social activities (referred to as large-scale activities) as group activities such as cultural and artistic performances, sports competitions, exhibitions, fairs, job fairs, temple fairs, lantern fairs, garden fairs, and other activities that are organized by the organizers on a rental, loan, or other forms of temporary occupation of premises and venues for the benefit of the general public. The safety management of a large-scale event is composed of many safety elements, which are interlocked and indispensable to form a management system. In this management system, public **** safety risk assessment is the core link in the safety management of large-scale events. Public **** security risk assessment for large-scale events means that before each large-scale event is organized, the subject and object of the event are identified, information is collected from various aspects and methods are determined. Through extensive collection of hazardous and harmful factors that may lead to the occurrence of various types of emergencies at a large-scale event, potential threats and weaknesses of a large-scale event are identified in advance, the level of risk faced and the possible impact are assessed, and preparations and early warnings are made for the consequences of a crisis or disaster, and security measures are formulated to deal with the situation. Preparation and early warning of the consequences of the crisis and disaster, the development of response security strategy recommendations and security solutions, to avoid and adjust the risk, management decisions to provide a scientific basis for the process. Second, the importance of large-scale activities of public **** security risk assessment With China's economic development and the strengthening of the comprehensive national strength, China has organized more and more large-scale activities, although the formulation of management regulations and risk management plan, but due to the public **** security risk assessment techniques and methods of research is not systematic, scientific, disposal plan lack of scientific and rigorous, resulting in individual large-scale activities occurred in major accidents, pay a heavy price. As a result, major accidents have occurred at individual large-scale events, and a heavy price has been paid. Therefore, there is an urgent need to strengthen research on risk assessment techniques and methods for large-scale events (including research on contingency plans) and to put them into practice, so as to fill the country's gaps in this area and achieve the goal of controlling risks and minimizing losses. In the face of rampant terrorist activities around the world, large-scale events often become the target of terrorist attacks, which adversely affects national political and social stability. Therefore, public **** security for large-scale events, especially risk assessment, is getting more and more attention. Through security risk assessment, the likelihood and severity of accidents can be assessed in advance, based on which practical measures can be taken to minimize the likelihood of accidents and the degree of harm and to reduce losses to the maximum extent possible, and at the same time the risk assessment also contributes to the effective allocation of human resources for security. The role of public security organs in large-scale activities Under the leadership of the Party committee and the government, public security organs at all levels mobilize the whole police force, go all out, collaborate with each other, cooperate closely, and effectively strengthen the safety management of all kinds of large-scale activities, so as to effectively guarantee the safety and smooth progress of all activities. In the course of actual implementation, the public security authorities have taken the following measures in respect of large-scale activities. First, for major large-scale mass events, the public security organs set up internal security leadership bodies, which are generally headed by the main leading comrade himself, coordinating all aspects of the event and effectively strengthening the organization and leadership of the event's security work. Secondly, prior to the commencement of the event, on-site inspections are carried out to look at the venue and the relevant security facilities, to gain a full understanding of the situation, to carefully examine the application submitted by the organizer, and to urge the organizer to formulate an internal safety and security plan and to implement the various security measures. Thirdly, establish a risk assessment mechanism and formulate a comprehensive safety and security program and contingency plan. Fourth, strengthen the management of traffic and public order around the site of the event, and create a good environment for the organization of large-scale mass events. Fifth, check the implementation of safety and security work of the organizers. On the discovery of insecurity supervise the solution, rectification, and according to the need to arrange for the police to maintain order at the scene of the event. Fourth, the current situation of large-scale activities in China, public **** security risk assessment of international research on social security risk assessment far earlier than our country, the major Western developed countries have initially formed the basic theory, methodology and application software, but has not yet formed a systematic standard, and its core technology and methodology is highly confidential to our country. The introduction of risk assessment in large-scale activities in China is still very short, although some theoretical research results and practical experience have been accumulated, but they are still in the exploratory stage, and the public security organs mainly carry out risk assessment for a small number of influential official large-scale activities (e.g., the Olympic Games and the World Expo), but seldom carry out it for general official large-scale activities, and they will not carry out risk assessment for privately-run large-scale activities. First of all, there are some problems with the actual operation of China's public security organs. Over the years, the public security organs have adopted a largely empirical approach to the management of large-scale public ****events, and there are differences in the management efforts and security requirements of the public security organs at all levels in different parts of the country, and there is arbitrariness, so that the organizers are at a loss as to what to do. Civilian police officers know too little about the theory of risk assessment, and the assessment methodology is simple, patterned and formalized, thus depriving the work of its scientific nature and true significance. Secondly, there are also great imperfections in China's laws. The relevant laws and regulations only define the directions that must be implemented for the safety risks of large-scale activities, but they are not implemented into the operational aspects of the actual risk assessment work. As a result, there is no basis for the assessment work in actual operation, and there are no standards and norms for implementation. For example, for large-scale civil activities, article 3 of the Regulations on the Safe Management of Large-scale Mass Events stipulates that large-scale mass events should adhere to the principle of responsibility of the organizer and supervision by the government; article 4 stipulates that the public security organs of the people's governments at or above the county level should be responsible for the safe management of large-scale mass events; however, the main body of the risk assessment of the large-scale event has not been clarified, and there is no stipulation of the conditions that are necessary. V. Large-scale activities public **** security risk assessment workflow (a) to determine the scope of risk assessment 1, the participants. The number of spectators, physiology, quality, degree of organization, psychological tolerance, self-protection ability and other information; the self-protection ability and emotional control ability of the event participants, the person responsible for security, security companies and security guards, security system and compensation ability, security experience, security training and drills, and the relationship with the venue, etc.; the internal environment, crowd composition, crowd capacity, crowd size and density and the external environment of the mobile people. Internal environment: crowd composition, crowd capacity, crowd size and density, and external environment: crowd density, adaptability of crowd evacuation or control. 2. Activity environment. The internal environment of the activity place, which mainly includes: public **** facilities, parking lots, regional openness, etc.. The natural conditions of the event venue and the surrounding area, including: meteorology, hydrology, geology, traffic, surrounding buildings, the adaptability of commercial density, gas stations, hazardous chemical warehouses, railroad lines, highways, rivers and other possible impacts. Sound, fireworks, lighting, big screen and theme content used by all parties involved in the service have an impact on the noise, vision and traffic of the public **** environment. 3, equipment and facilities. The internal equipment and facilities of the event venue mainly include: the number and distribution map of key hazards and physical prevention targets, water, electricity, gas, heat facilities, fire protection, safety prevention, emergency entrances and exits and broadcasting, communication, environmental ventilation systems, evacuation routes, temporary structures, security check and explosion-proof facilities and the adaptability of the event security. Stage, spectator stands, business facilities, aerial work and hanging, publicity media, evacuation guide signs, temporary safety precautions, temporary electricity and other equipment and facilities required for the planning of activities. 4. Other special aspects. Activity planning program and the main links involved in the program, programs with social impact and concern, the participation of important or social figures of special concern, the political impact and the interactivity of the activities; the experience and ability of the parties to organize services, the ability to compensate for accidents and disasters, the constraints of the competent authorities, the level of guests invited to the event and leaders participating in the event, counter-terrorism and explosion-proofing, and mass events, etc.; the organization of all the elements of the event and the measures taken to prepare for the event; the work of the various work programs and the measures to be taken to prepare for the event. (ii) Collecting and organizing the risk assessment, and organizing the risk management system, as well as the risk management system of the event. (ii) Collecting and organizing the information required for risk assessment (1) Approval and reading of literature. Collect basic information about the large-scale event, including the nature and affiliation of the organizer, the theme of the event, the specific content of the event, the history of the large-scale event, approvals, certificates of qualification, the event's safety plan, certificates of security equipment, documents and tickets used for the event, etc.; the safety operation record of the venue of the large-scale event, the person responsible for safety and the person in charge of the site of the event, and the information on accidents and failures. The safety operation record of the venue of the large-scale activity, the person responsible for safety and the person in charge of the activity, the information on accidents and failures, the safety status of the infrastructure such as water, electricity, gas and heat, etc., the basic situation of the participating organizations, the domestic and foreign relevant regulations, safety technical standards and construction project information, the category of the audience group, the specific situation of the safety facilities and equipment, and the situation of the emergency entrances and exits and the key areas such as fire-fighting facilities. 2、Site survey. On-site survey is the most direct and important way to obtain information. On-site investigation can make risk assessors feel the actual environment and verify the authenticity of the collected information, and at the same time, they can supplement the collected information. Obtaining information through communication. Risk assessors should communicate with the organizer on the details of the process of the large-scale event, the main risk points, and the lessons learned from organizing similar large-scale events in the past. Through communication, information that is not available on paper should be recorded for better assessment. 4. Intelligence work. Collect information related to the event through communication with governmental departments, meteorological departments, and earthquake prevention departments, etc. For example, whether high-risk groups are concerned about the event. For example, whether the high-risk groups have made any changes to this activity, and to understand the information of terrorists and high-risk groups. 5. Collect and understand public opinion in a timely manner. Through the collation and refinement of information related to the organization of large-scale activities by large-scale media, such as newspapers, magazines, news, and the Internet, we can understand the degree of social concern about large-scale activities, and discover and accumulate some latent and valuable intelligence information. Through public supervision and feedback, we can understand the psychological sentiment and thoughts of specific groups as well as social dynamics with tendencies. (iii) Determine risk assessment methods According to the characteristics of the large-scale event, select scientific, reasonable and applicable risk assessment methods based on the likelihood and severity of accidents caused by hazardous and harmful factors. According to different criteria, risk assessment methods can be qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, semi-quantitative analysis. There are also many sub-methods in the various methods, for example, qualitative evaluation methods include the "SWOT" method, the brainstorming method, the Delphi method, the subjective probability method, etc. There are many different safety risk assessment methods. There are many kinds of security risk assessment methods, each of which has its own scope of application and conditions of application. The choice of assessment and analysis methods should be based on the purpose of the assessment, the characteristics of the target, the availability of information, the cost of the assessment, and the scope of application of the assessment method. In some cases, several appraisal and analysis methods may be applied in a comprehensive manner to verify the results of the appraisal with each other so as to improve the quality of the forecast. (iv) Rehearsals and revisions Rehearsals and revisions are necessary to achieve good results in an appraisal. Rehearsals enhance the overall competence of the team and familiarize them with the content of the assessment. Managers can also identify deficiencies in the assessment through drills and make continuous improvements. （After obtaining risk information, determining risk assessment methods and conducting drills, the results of the risk assessment should be collated and summarized, so that the public security authorities, organizers and contractors can formulate relevant contingency plans and carry out targeted safety and security work, and prepare a complete risk assessment report. Sixth, large-scale activities of public **** security risk control The assessment of large-scale activities of public **** security risk assessment without actively taking effective measures to control the risk, the assessment will become meaningless. Therefore, after the risk assessment, the public security authorities, the event organizer and the venue provider need to establish control mechanisms for any problems that may arise. The following risk control strategies can be adopted: Cancellation and avoidance of risks: If the risk exposure is too high, all components of the event must be canceled. For example, open-air events are among the major events that have been canceled due to the effects of rainfall. The main risk is not the discomfort of the audience, but the threat of electrical leakage. Risk mitigation: Risks that cannot be eliminated require ways to minimize their impact. For example, in order to eliminate all possible safety hazards at an event, it may be necessary to check every participant. Obviously, this solution is not possible, and a risk minimization strategy, such as installing a metal detector or security guards in a more visible location, will be required. Reducing the magnitude of the risks that have occurred: A major part of the safety plan is to develop a rapid and effective response to possible problems that have occurred. Training staff in basic first aid skills can reduce the risk of accidents. Event managers cannot rule out natural disasters, but they can prepare contingency plans to control their impact. Spreading risk: If risk can be spread across different areas, the impact of errors can be reduced. One strategy is to decentralize cash pickup points, such as ticket gates, so that theft does not threaten the overall event revenue. Having multiple sponsors is also a way to spread the risk. Even if one sponsor pulls out, this can be compensated for by increasing the share of other sponsors. Transferring Risk: Risk can be transferred to the group responsible for a particular aspect of the event. The subcontractor takes on some of the responsibility for the event. Subcontracts usually include a clause that the subcontractor is solely responsible for the safety of its equipment and the behavior of its employees during the event. In Australia, most performing groups require public **** liability insurance before they can participate in an event. Design backups and alternatives: If something goes wrong, the situation can be saved by using alternatives. For example, to prevent the consequences of a sudden power outage, backup generators are largely required for large outdoor events. Evaluating examples of successes and failures in risk control is a central task in planning future activities. Analyzing and reacting to feedback is a necessary part of this process. In conclusion, large-scale events are a product of today's socio-economic development, and public safety at large-scale events has become a major concern. Risk assessment is the key to ensuring that events run smoothly and in an orderly manner. Organizers, risk supervision departments (public security organs) should be through the study of risk assessment methods, summarize and analyze the reasons for the success and failure of risk control, lessons learned for future work to provide practical methods.