With the outbreak under control, the previously shuttered Tesla factory in China has begun resuming production, and LG Chem, the battery supplier for the homegrown Model?3, has likewise resumed work, but two days ago foreign media suddenly reported news that Tesla is in discussions with Ningde Times about using cobalt-free batteries in its homegrown Tesla models, and that the talks are already at an advanced stage.
In early February, Ningde Times made an announcement confirming that it had signed an agreement with Tesla to supply lithium-ion power battery products to the company, with the start of supply in July this year and the agreement valid for two years, from July 1, 2020, to June 30, 2022, the company said. But the discussion about cobalt-free batteries has not yet been a definitive official statement, so let's first analyze the other factors in this matter:
First of all, for Tesla, this is the first time that they have included lithium iron phosphate batteries in their product line, and in the prevalence of ternary lithium batteries, this perverse move should be out of consideration of cost reduction, and foreign media say that this reduction can reach at least "double-digit percentage", that is, more than 10%, and may also be in order to improve safety, the following briefly explains the principle.
Ternary lithium battery which nickel cobalt manganese this ternary material on the battery is very significant, first of all, cobalt is a scarce resource, and its price fluctuations greatly affect the price of ternary materials, for example, in 2017-2018, new energy vehicles rapid discharge, and cobalt capacity did not keep up, the price once soared to 600,000 yuan / ton, followed by capacity expansion before the fall, but also in the 280,000 yuan / ton. million yuan/ton. So Ningde Times, LG Chem and other battery makers are actually trying their best to study the battery without cobalt, but there are no significant results yet.
What is the impact of cobalt-free on battery performance? First of all, cobalt plays an important role in stabilizing the ternary battery layer structure and increasing the number of cycles, while high-nickel, low-cobalt batteries are less thermally stable, and if the temperature control is not done properly, the battery's discharge performance declines, and the temperature rises sharply, which can lead to spontaneous combustion of the battery, which is also the root cause of the Tesla's negative news.
Some experts believe that any new technology that can replace the cobalt battery material will appear at least 10 years later, so the cobalt-free battery is no surprise that the traditional program of lithium iron phosphate, the production cost is much lower than the ternary material, in the low-priced family car is widely used, at the same time, much better thermal stability, such as ternary lithium batteries, the runaway temperature of the battery is about 200 degrees Celsius, and lithium iron phosphate batteries at 500 degrees Celsius or more. 500 degrees Celsius or more, both of which are exactly the characteristics that Tesla needs.
But lithium iron phosphate also has a significant disadvantage compared to lithium ternary batteries, which is energy density. The energy density of lithium ternary batteries in the market has been pulled to more than 180Wh/kg, and the energy density of the NCM811 core developed by Ningde Times has reached 300Wh/kg. The energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries is much lower than that of lithium ternary batteries, and it is not ideal for use in passenger cars, even if BYD, the leading producer of lithium iron phosphate batteries, has already replaced its passenger cars with ternary lithium batteries. Even BYD, the leading producer of lithium-ion batteries, has already replaced its passenger cars with ternary lithium batteries, and only uses lithium iron phosphate in its electric buses.
But since we're all trying to develop cobalt-free batteries, what can we do with lithium iron phosphate? There is, Ningde Times last October released the CTP (Cell?to?Pack) technology, that is, the battery module-free, directly integrated into the battery pack, can increase the battery pack volume utilization rate of 15-20%, energy density increased by 10-15%, and significantly reduce manufacturing costs. This technology is also being developed by BYD and Great Wall's Hive New Energy.
BYD has already achieved some results in blade battery technology, which is to make the battery cell flat and long, and its energy density can be increased by 30% compared with the previous, while the cost is reduced by 30%, and the heat dissipation performance will also be better, BYD's new model "Han" is the first model equipped with blade batteries, with an energy density of 140Wh/kg. With an energy density of 140Wh/kg, it can already compete at the same level with most lithium ternary batteries.
The Great Wall's Beehive New Energy has developed a cobalt-free battery concept, which is a cobalt-free version of the ternary material, and can be called a binary lithium battery in a sense. Its technical principles are twofold: first, doping specific elements to attenuate the super-exchange phenomenon of electrons, reduce Li/Ni, and improve the point performance; and second, doping elements with large M-O bonding energy to slow down the volume change of the crystals in the process of charging and discharging, stabilize the structure, and improve the cycle life and safety.
The final performance is almost similar to that of Ningde Times' NCM811, but the overall cost will be 5-10% lower, and it is said to realize mass production in the second half of this year, with an energy density of 265Wh/kg, which is the closest thing to a successful development of cobalt-free battery technology.
With the current information, Tesla will use the program to improve the energy density of lithium iron phosphate or similar to the Great Wall's cobalt-free program is not clear, foreign media reports said Tesla is in talks with the Ningde Times to develop cobalt-free electric core, and will develop cobalt-free batteries themselves, and the relevant material components will be announced at the investor meeting in April. If Tesla develops its own electric core stone hammer, it means that Tesla has completed a complete industrial integration.
Previously Tesla announced to promote the battery cobalt-free on the day, Tesla shares soared 7%, the market value of more than 150 billion U.S. dollars in one fell swoop, Musk also received 1.69 million shares of the award, valued at 10.5 billion yuan, and after the foreign media reported that the news of Tesla and the era of Ningde, the Tesla shares continued to rise 10%, while the related industry also appeared to be a huge fluctuation.
Yesterday, after the opening of the A-share market, Huayou Cobalt (-9.99%), cold sharp cobalt (-10.00%), Luoyang molybdenum (-9.90%) and other cobalt concept stocks fell, De Fang Nano (10.00%), Xiangtan Electrochemical (10.02%), Feng Yuan shares (10.01%), Guanghua Science and Technology (9.99%) and other cobalt-less concept stocks rose, BYD (4.10%) ), Guoxuan Gaoke (2.93%) and other lithium iron phosphate concept stocks soared.
So everyone found out, Tesla is more likely to use lithium iron phosphate battery program is not empty talk, the stock market has shown a strong sensitivity, spontaneous Tesla's operation to produce a predicted reaction, but no matter which way Tesla chooses to go, there are two things can be confirmed: the battery technology will be a great development; domestic Model?3 will be cheaper.
This article was written by Liu Jianxing, author of Kick Car Help? Liu Jianxing
This article was written by the author of Auto Home Car Family, and does not represent the viewpoint position of Auto Home.