Industrial transfer and upgrading, technological innovation and diffusion, institutional changes and market expansion are the three factors that determine productivity improvement in the short term of two to three years, the medium term of three to five years, and the long term of five to ten years. .
Industrial upgrading and transfer can be seen from the national document promoting the rise of the central region, which has been effective, and can also be seen from the skyrocketing rents in small and medium-sized towns in the mainland.
Technological innovation and diffusion, if we look at China domestically, this is unlikely. Although there are Internet companies or innovative companies in other industries emerging one after another, judging from the frenzy of applying for civil servants and the excessive increase in fiscal and taxation It can be seen that this matter is hopeless and there is no hope. Everyone is obsessed with how to rob after being a bandit in uniform. How many of them are working hard to engage in innovative production? The rest are counting on multinational companies to set up shop in China and build copycats in China. This, considering that China There is a gap with international productivity. Generally speaking, even if there is a big drop in five years, it will not be impossible to get up.
Institutional innovation and market expansion are hard to say. Now it is said that private investment in medical care has been relaxed, but the extent of the opening is still unknown. Education is still controlled, and the consequences are obvious. There is a serious surplus of a large number of college students who lack necessary skills. On the other hand, a large number of companies are unable to recruit suitable talents. The result of adjusting the way of structural transformation is to impose power cuts, causing private enterprises to approach the bosses of state-owned enterprises one after another and submit their apprenticeship posts to the dock, otherwise they will not be able to survive. Production efficiency is getting lower and lower. After the introduction of the new Article 36, there was no further ringing. Land privatization is far off in sight, and there is no movement on capital or even financial controls...
The credit expansion caused by the undervaluation of the RMB exchange rate, I think, will probably last another two years.
Because the speed of printing money, even if it is faster than productivity, must be consistent. The current approach will eventually be reflected in domestic asset bubbles and inflation.
It’s no joke. China’s banknote printing factories are currently expanding their staff. Let me ask, can the production capacity of other industries keep up? Everyone has seen the efficiency of printing presses, right?