Section I: Analysis of Water Demand
I. Forecast of Socio-Economic Development Indicators
(A) Indicators of Socio-Economic Situation
In 2005, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Xinjiang was 260.4 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% over the previous year. Among them, the added value of primary industry was 49.4 billion yuan, up 6.6%; the added value of secondary industry was 116.5 billion yuan, up 14.4%; and the added value of tertiary industry was 94.5 billion yuan, up 9.3%. In the GDP, the added value of primary, secondary and tertiary industries accounted for 19.6%, 44.7% and 35.7% of the GDP respectively.
In 2005, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery was 83.106 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4% over the previous year. Among them, the output value of agriculture was 59.584 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0%; the output value of animal husbandry was 18.352 billion yuan, an increase of 9.0%; the output value of forestry was 1.529 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8%; and the output value of fishery was 434 million yuan, an increase of 5.4%. The number of livestock at the end of the year was 53.3360 million heads (only), an increase of 2.4% over the previous year; the annual new effective irrigation area of 90.05 million hectares.
The total population at the end of 2005 was 20,035,000, an increase of 472,400 over the previous year, or 2.4%. Among them, the urban population was 7,648,500, an increase of 8.2%, and the urbanization rate was 37.2%; the rural population was 12,635,000, an increase of 174,900, a decrease of 0.8%. The annual birth rate was 16.4 per thousand, the death rate was 5.0 per thousand, and the natural population growth rate was 11.4 per thousand.
(II) Forecast of Socio-Economic Development Indicators
The method of forecasting socio-economic development indicators is to make use of the relevant basic data in Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook (2006) and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Land Development and Consolidation Plan (2001-2010), and to adopt the relevant planning quotas in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Groundwater Resources Development and Utilization Planning Report. Forecast.
1. Agricultural development indicators
Land change statistics show that at the end of 2005, Xinjiang had 63.0607 million hectares of agricultural land, 1.2207 million hectares of construction land, and 102.2083 million hectares of unutilized land, as shown in Table 3-2-1. The "Land Development and Consolidation Plan of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region" (2001～2010) puts forward that from 2001 to 2010, 1.6 million hectares of land will be developed and consolidated. The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Land Development and Consolidation Plan (2001～2010) proposes that 1,606,800 hectares of land will be developed and consolidated in 2010, and 666,700 hectares of new arable land will be added, as shown in Table 3-2-2, and the area of arable land in the whole territory is predicted to be 4,830,700 hectares (72,465,000 acres) by 2010.
Table 3-2-1 Status of Land Resources Utilization in Xinjiang in 2005 Unit: 10,000 hectares
Table 3-2-2 Arrangement Table of Land Development and Finishing in Various Regions (Prefectures and Municipalities) (2001-2010) Unit: hectares
Continued Table
2. Indicators of Industrial Development
According to the information of the Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook in 2006, the growth rate of gross output value is calculated at 9%, and the growth rate of total output value is calculated at 9%. According to Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook 2006, the growth rate of industrial output value is calculated at 9%, and it is predicted that the industrial output value will be 362.600 billion yuan by 2010.
3. Population Growth Forecast
According to the 2006 Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook, the population growth rate is calculated at 1.1%, and the population is forecasted to reach 21,229,300 by 2010.
II. Water Demand Forecasting
(I) Principles of Water Demand Forecasting
The basic principles of forecasting the development trend of water resources supply and demand are mainly considered in the following aspects
1.Both flow-saving and source-saving, utilizing and protecting
In order to meet the increasing demand for water supply in the future, according to the socio-economic development of the regions and Water resources needs, and ecological and environmental conditions and other specific circumstances, in order to further strengthen water conservation and existing projects supporting the transformation of potential under the premise of appropriate construction of water resources development and utilization of engineering, in order to maintain a moderate increase in the amount of water supply. To do new projects and existing projects supporting the transformation and progress, and open source of water and water conservation and utilization and protection of equal importance.
2. The principle of economic rationality
According to the maximization of social net welfare guidelines, the demand for water resources and supply at the same time to adjust the mode of socio-economic development and the carrying capacity of resources and the environment to adapt to each other. Based on the criterion of marginal cost substitution, measures such as productivity transfer, industrial structure adjustment, water price adjustment, and industrial appliance-type water conservation are taken on the demand side to suppress excessive growth of demand and to improve the utilization efficiency of resources; on the supply side, measures such as direct utilization of precipitation and brackish water, flooding and sewage resource utilization, and joint utilization of surface and groundwater are taken in a comprehensive manner, supplemented by inter-basin water transfer, to increase the comprehensive safeguard function of water resources for regional development. The comprehensive guarantee function of water resources for regional development.
3. Principle of unified allocation
In accordance with the national socio-economic development strategy, combined with the regional socio-economic needs of Xinjiang, and taking into account the characteristics of the regional distribution of water resources, water resources in the inter-basin and intra-basin level of unified allocation. Inter-basin allocation of water resources to solve the natural distribution of water resources and the historical formation of the key areas of water use is not coordinated, mainly relying on inter-basin water transfer projects for a wide range of water surplus and deficit allocation; intra-basin level of the allocation of the basin as the basis for the realization of engineering and non-engineering measures.
4. Principle of sustainable development
Based on the principle of sustainable development, taking into account to meet the water needs of the national economy and ecological environment, water resources allocation should be based on the sustainable use of water resources. From the concept of maintaining the harmonious development of man and nature, coordinating the development process of man - land relations and man - water relations. Taking into account both harm and benefit, current and long-term, local and global, and weighing both socio-economic development and ecological environmental protection, we should reasonably allocate water for socio-economic use and ecological environment. According to the laws of nature and economy, seek a balance between the demand for socio-economic development and the carrying capacity of resources and environment, and seek a balance between the demand for funds for the efficient and sustainable use of water resources and the affordability of the society and economy.
5. Industry, towns and rural living water consumption is considered at 95% guarantee rate, farmland irrigation, economic forests, forage is considered at 75% guarantee rate, windbreak forests, forests, pasture ecological water consumption is considered at 50% guarantee rate
6. By 2010 so that the region's spring drought water shortages of the contradiction basically be alleviated, and basically satisfy the agricultural and animal husbandry industry, oil and industrial and mining enterprises, urban life, production and Water requirements in all aspects of production and ecology
(2) Basis of water demand forecast
The Technical Rules for the National Groundwater Resources Development and Utilization Planning Work 5.1 clearly states that the socio-economic development indicators of prefecture-level administrative regions for the years 2000 and 2010 and their water supply demand forecasts can be quoted from the results of the "National Medium- and Long-Term Supply and Demand Plan for Water Resources". In the spirit of these instructions, this work is analyzed and calculated with reference to the results of the "Medium and Long Term Supply and Demand Plan for Water Resources of the Whole Territory".
Objectives and principles of water demand prediction: The prediction of water demand should be based on the goal of sustainable development, not only predicting the water demand of the national economy, but also taking into account the ecological environment on the demand for water resources. For Xinjiang, where water resources are relatively poor, water conservation is a long-term task, and water demand quotas are determined in accordance with the requirements of water-saving agriculture, water-saving industry and water-saving society. In predicting the quota, many factors such as water resource conditions, water resource development and utilization potential, and water conservation level of each basin are taken into consideration, and reference is made to the water consumption level of regions with relatively high water consumption efficiency at home and abroad.
(C) 2010 water demand forecast
1. Effective utilization coefficient of the canal system and the determination of water use quotas
Based on the results of the "medium- and long-term supply and demand plan for water resources in the whole of Xinjiang," to determine the relevant parameters and quotas of the current water demand forecast.
(1) Effective utilization coefficient of the drainage system, see Table 3-2-3.
Table 3-2-3 Planning Table of Effective Utilization Coefficient of the Drainage System
(2) Agricultural Irrigation Quotas: Agricultural irrigation refers to the irrigation quotas for large fields and rice paddies, see Table 3-2-4 for more details.
Table 3-2-4 Planning Table of Agricultural Irrigation Quotas Unit: cubic meter/mu
(3) urban living water quota: urban water use population is the non-agricultural population in the municipal population, living water quota includes residential water, water for public **** facilities and water for commercial vegetable fields in 3 parts. The planning indexes are shown in Table 3-2-5.
Table 3-2-5 Planning indexes for urban domestic water use Unit: liter/person-day
(4) Industrial water use quota: the forecast of industrial water demand includes the forecast of water demand of electric power industry, township and village enterprises, and other industries, etc. Therefore, the industrial water use quota adopts the repeatability of water use, which is the same as that of other industries, and is the same as that of other industries. Therefore, the industrial water quota adopts the method of increasing the reuse rate, and uses the water consumption of 10,000 yuan output value to project the industrial water demand. The planning indexes of water consumption of 10,000 yuan output value of industry in the whole territory are shown in Table 3-2-6.
Table 3-2-6 Planning table of industrial water quota Unit: m3 / 10,000 yuan
2. Forecast of water demand
According to the Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook, the gross industrial output value and population indexes of each place (state and city) in 2006, the growth rate of annual industrial output value was calculated according to the "Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region National Economy and National Economic and Technological Development Act", the "Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region National Economy and Technological Development Act". Outline of the Tenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region", the growth rate of population is calculated at 11 per thousand, and the water quota for industry and urban life is calculated according to the quota determined by the above analysis, so that the water demand for industry and urban life is predicted accordingly. Cultivated land area is based on the information of "Land Development and Consolidation Planning of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2001-2010)", and the agricultural irrigation quota is 700 m3/mu on average for the integrated paddy fields and dry fields in the northern border area and 750 m3/mu on average in the southern border area. Accordingly, the predicted water demand is shown in Table 3-2-7 to Table 3-2-9.
Table 3-2-7 Industrial Water Demand Prediction and Analysis Table
Table 3-2-8 Urban Life Water Demand Prediction and Analysis Table
Continued Table
Table 3-2-9 Agricultural Water Demand Prediction and Analysis Table
Continued Table
3. Determination of Water Requirement
In 2010, the industrial water demand of the whole territory was 6,845.49 million cubic meters, the agricultural water demand was 51,374.56 million cubic meters, and the urban living water demand was 945.34 million cubic meters. The total water demand of the whole territory was 59,165.4 million cubic meters. See Table 3-2-10 for details.
Table 3-2-10 Summary of the results of 2010 water demand forecast Unit: 100 million cubic meters
Continued
4. Forecasts of water consumption, water return, and industrial and urban wastewater discharge
According to the information in the "Report of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region's Groundwater Resources Development and Utilization Planning", the forecasts of urban living, urban living, and urban wastewater discharge will be made on the basis of the Long-term Supply and Demand Plan for Water in Xinjiang. Supply and Demand Plan of Xinjiang: Based on the different water consumption rates of urban living, industrial production and agricultural irrigation, the forecasts of water consumption, water return and urban wastewater discharge in the prefecture (state) are shown in Table 3-1-11.
Table 3-1-11 Statistical Table of Water Consumption and Water Return Analysis and Prediction Unit: 10,000 m3
Continued Table
5. Analysis of Ecological Environment Water Requirement
Ecological Environment Water Requirement
Water consumption for ecological environment does not pose a problem in wet areas where water resources are abundant, while in arid, semi-arid and half-humid areas where water resources are in short supply, the deterioration of the ecological environment is due to the fact that in the process of economic development, urban and industrial water consumption crowds out the water consumption for agriculture, and agricultural water consumption crowds out the water consumption for ecological environment.
On the evaluation of ecological environment water use, studies at home and abroad agree that the current state of the ecological environment should be used as the starting point for evaluating ecological water use, rather than evaluating the natural ecological environment as a scale. Therefore, the ecological environment water use in a narrow sense refers to the amount of water resources that need to be consumed in order to maintain the ecological environment from deteriorating and gradually improve. The area for the evaluation of ecological environment water use should be the arid, semi-arid and semi-humid areas with severe seasonal drought where the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources is prominent and the ecological environment is relatively fragile and problematic.
The evaluation of ecological water use started late, and the information available is limited. Now on the national "Ninth Five-Year Plan" key project "Northwest China's rational development and utilization of water resources and ecological environmental protection research" (96-912) on the topic of the proposed results of the ecological environment of the water situation in Xinjiang, make a rough evaluation.
(1) Balance Analysis of Ecological and Economic Water Consumption
Xinjiang has an arid climate and good light and heat conditions, but the ecological environment is very fragile. In recent years, due to over-exploitation of soil and water resources in some areas, desertification, salinization and other ecological problems are very prominent. According to the "Ninth Five-Year" research 96-912-01 subject "ecological environmental protection" research topic, the use of telemetry interpretation of the ecological elements of information and ground hydrological observation data, with the sub-basin water balance analysis and estimation of the current economic water consumption, The results are shown in Table 3-2-12.
Table 3-2-12 Balance of Ecological and Economic Water Consumption Unit: 100 million cubic meters
(2) Balance Analysis of Water Consumption of Typical Rivers
In order to analyze the impact of the degree of water resources exploitation and utilization on the ecological environment, four rivers with different degrees of water resources exploitation and utilization were selected for comparison. Comparison, see Table 3-2-13.
Table 3-2-13 Typical River Water Consumption Proportion Relationship Table
Boltara River and Kuitun River are the source rivers of Lake Abbey in the western part of the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountain, the degree of water resources development and utilization is relatively low, and the economic consumption of water accounted for 41% and 50%, respectively; ecological consumption of water accounted for 59% and 50%, respectively. At present, some of the remaining water is still being withdrawn into Lake Aibi, which, together with the withdrawals of other rivers,**** maintains the stability of the current lake surface of Lake Aibi. The remaining rivers are less than 50% for economic consumption, more than 50% for ecological use, and a certain percentage of the remaining water is supplied to downstream terminal lakes or to groundwater in desert areas.
The Manas River and the Hutubi River are the source rivers of the Manas Lake, and both rivers have a high degree of water resources development and utilization, and their economic water consumption has exceeded 60%. As a result, the Manas Lake at the end of the rivers has dried up. As the Manas and Hutubi Rivers have replaced most of the natural oases through the development of artificial oasis ecology, the ecological environment of the region has basically not deteriorated.
It is clear from the above analysis: any river in the inland river region is an ecological river, and with the development of water resources, the growth of artificial ecological water consumption is bound to have an impact on the natural ecological environment. The ratio of economic water consumption and ecological water consumption directly reflects the ecological environment of the basin. The development and utilization of water resources should have a certain limit, according to China's inland river water resources development and utilization of the current situation, so that the ecological environment will not continue to deteriorate, the economic consumption of water should be controlled in 30% to 50% of the range is more reasonable, the highest should not exceed 60%. At present, the degree of exploitation of water resources in inland river areas has reached 50%, some areas even more than 60%, the ecological environment has deteriorated significantly, so the further development of water resources in inland areas, we must make an evaluation of the possible adverse effects on the ecological environment. The report "Comprehensive Evaluation of the World's Freshwater Resources" published by the United Nations has categorized the degree of water stress (see Table 3-2-14 for details), and considered that the ratio of water use to available freshwater of 20% to 40% belongs to the range of medium to high water stress, and called for the strengthening of the management of water supply and demand to ensure the use of water for aquatic ecosystems. The ratio of water use to available fresh water exceeding 40% is considered to be in the range of high water stress, and there will be a serious water shortage in the basin, which will have a serious impact on the aquatic ecosystems, and the lack of water will become a limiting factor for the economic growth, and the existing water use pattern and water consumption will need to be adjusted. This information can be used as a reference for the rational development and utilization of water resources in Xinjiang.
Table 3-2-14 Classification of water stress
According to the actual situation in Xinjiang, in order to protect and improve the ecological environment, the following aspects of water consumption need to be considered: ① protection and restoration of inland rivers downstream of the natural vegetation and the ecological environment; ② soil and water conservation and water conservation outside the scope of the construction of forests and grasses vegetation; ③ to maintain the necessary amount of water in the channel of the river, such as sand flushing and wetlands, lakes, depressions and other ecological water; ③ maintenance of water within the river channel, such as sand flushing and wetlands, ecological water; and the water supply of the water supply. and depressions, etc.; ④ recharge the groundwater in the over-mining area.
Many experts have conducted various researches on the amount of water needed to maintain the current natural ecosystem, and believe that the amount of water needed by the natural ecosystem under the current conditions mainly consists of three parts: 1) 5.707 million hectares of wetland meadows need 15.09 billion cubic meters of water; 554,000 hectares of desert riparian forests need 1.04 billion cubic meters of water; and 249,000 hectares of river valleys need 130 million cubic meters of water. 2) 980,700 hectares of shrubs need 10 million cubic meters of water. The 98.07 million hectares of shrub forests require 1.61 billion cubic meters of water. The above natural ecological vegetation*** requires 17.87 billion cubic meters of water. Secondly, the ecological water demand of the three important lakes (Bosten Lake, Ulungu Lake and Aibi Lake) is 2.74 billion cubic meters. Third, the ecological water demand of important rivers is 150 million cubic meters. The above three **** total water demand of about 20.8 billion cubic meters.
So, under the current conditions, excluding the precipitation utilized by natural vegetation and the absorbed groundwater, the natural ecological water consumption of 20.8 billion cubic meters is irreducible. This amount of water, which is basically the amount of water discharged from natural rivers after diversion, must be guaranteed to ensure the safety of the natural ecological system at the periphery of the oasis and to protect the stability and sustainable development of the oasis.
For inland river basins, the river should have a certain amount of water discharged annually for salt transmission and maintenance of the river banks and the extension of the area of desert vegetation water and water in the tailing lake, ecological water consumption varies depending on the different rivers, but it is necessary to ensure the stability of the basin ecosystem and the sustainable development of agriculture. According to international experience, ecological water use in arid areas should account for 30% to 40% of the total water resources. Therefore, the 20.8 billion cubic meters of ecological water consumption is the minimum amount of calculable water that must be guaranteed.
Section 2: Analysis of the balance between supply and demand of water resources
I. Analysis of the current situation of the balance between supply and demand of water resources
According to the data of "Evaluation of Groundwater Resources in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region" (Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Department of Land and Resources, 2002), the total water resources utilization of the whole territory was 48.59 billion cubic meters in 1999, of which 43.424 billion cubic meters were utilized by surface water, which accounted for 89.9 billion cubic meters. billion cubic meters, accounting for 89.37%; exploitation of groundwater 5.135 billion cubic meters (excluding the amount of qaner wells and spring diversion), accounting for 10.57%; and sewage treatment and reuse 0.293 billion cubic meters, accounting for 0.06%. See Table 3-2-15 for details.
Table 3-2-15 Statistical Table of Water Supply Volume of Administrative Sub-regions of Xinjiang in 1999 Unit: 100 million cubic meters
In 1999, the volume of surface water utilization was 43.424 billion cubic meters, which accounted for 41.4% of the total runoff volume of surface water of the whole territory, and accounted for 46% of the volume of surface water resources of the whole territory. The amount of surface water utilization in the Junggar Basin was 14,324.93 million cubic meters, accounting for 33% of the surface water utilization in the whole territory. The amount of surface water utilization in the Tarim Basin is 28,976,320,000,000 cubic meters, accounting for 67% of the total amount of surface water in the whole territory, which is one times higher than that in the Junggar Basin. See Table 3-2-16 for details.
Table 3-2-16 Statistical Table of Water Resource Utilization in Xinjiang in 1999 Unit: 100 million cubic meters
The amount of surface water resources in the whole territory was 94,219.33 million cubic meters per year, and the amount of water supplied by surface water was 43,424.04 million cubic meters per year, and the amount of water supplied by surface water accounted for 89.42% of the total amount of water resources utilized in the whole territory, and the average utilization rate of surface water in the whole territory was 46%. The average utilization rate of surface water in the whole territory is 46%, among which the utilization rate of surface water in Junggar Basin is 31% and that in Tarim Basin is 60%, and the degree of development and utilization of surface water in the southern territory is higher than that in the northern territory. The average annual runoff of rivers and streams in the whole territory is 88.53 billion m3/year, and after deducting 3.78 billion m3/year which is difficult to be utilized in the highland and desert areas, the usable amount of surface water is 84.75 billion m3/year. The current water demand of the ecological environment is 20.8 billion m3/year, and the outflow of international rivers is 25.92 billion m3/year. After deducting the water that is difficult to be utilized for the ecological environment and the outflow of international rivers, the amount of surface water that can be utilized by the national economy is about 40 billion m3/year. The amount of surface water available for use in the current situation is basically equivalent to the surface water actually introduced into the irrigation area at present, and there is basically no open-source potential for surface water in Xinjiang, except for the international rivers.
The amount of exploitable groundwater resources in Xinjiang is 23,312.42 million cubic meters, and the actual amount of groundwater exploited is 5,139.65 million cubic meters, with an average groundwater exploitation coefficient of 0.22, of which the coefficient of Junggar Basin is 0.28 and the coefficient of Tarim Basin is 0.19, and the degree of exploitation of groundwater in the north of Xinjiang is higher than that in the south of Xinjiang. Although the degree of groundwater development and utilization in Xinjiang is at a low level, the amount of groundwater available for water supply in the whole territory is much larger than the amount of water demand, and there is a great potential for development and utilization, and the result of the current situation of supply and demand balance: the remaining potential for groundwater development is 18,172.77 million m3/year. However, the development and utilization of groundwater in Xinjiang is very uneven, with large differences between the southern and northern Xinjiang, economically developed areas and underdeveloped areas. The degree of groundwater development and utilization in the northern Xinjiang is much higher than that in the southern Xinjiang, and the economic zone in the northern foothills of the Tianshan Mountains in the northern Xinjiang is much higher than that in other areas of the northern Xinjiang. The phenomenon of over-exploitation of groundwater has already appeared in individual areas of the northern foothills of the Tianshan Mountains, and the groundwater exploitation coefficients of Urumqi City, Shihezi City, Changji Prefecture, Turfan Area, and Hami Area are all close to or more than 1, and the groundwater is in the over-exploitation state, and the regional groundwater descent funnels have appeared to varying degrees. For example, in Qitai County, the average amount of groundwater extracted from 1991 to 1996 was 333 million cubic meters/year, which was larger than the extractable amount of 247 million cubic meters/year, and also larger than the total recharge of 297 million cubic meters/year. From the data obtained from the existing 26 observation wells in the county, the groundwater level continues to decline over the years in dynamic changes, with 3 points falling 0-1 m, 2 points falling 1-2 m, 9 points falling 2-4 m, 6 points falling 4-5 m, 2 points falling 5-6 m, and 4 points falling 6-7 m, with an average decline of 3.7 m. The water level in the plains of Qitai County is also higher than the average extraction of 333 million m3/year, which is greater than the extraction of 247 million m3/year, and also greater than the total recharge of 297 million m3/year. Qitai County plains springs *** there are 6, 1966 annual runoff 112 million cubic meters, in 1979 for 50 million cubic meters, in 1993 fell to 4.6 million cubic meters, to 1996 was only 22,000 cubic meters, within 30 years the springs gradually reduced, and is now almost dried up. Groundwater level continues to fall, the reduction of plains springs, of course, with the improvement of ground water conservancy projects, irrigation technology, however, over-exploitation is the main cause of groundwater level continues to fall, the main reason for the drying up of the springs of this objective fact is undeniable.
Second, the balance of water supply and demand forecast analysis
(1) surface water resources water supply potential analysis
(1) the territory's rivers and rivers for many years the average runoff of the total amount of 88.53 billion cubic meters / year, deducting the plateau, the desert area is difficult to use the 3.78 billion cubic meters / year, the amount of surface water available for use of 8.475 billion cubic meters / year. The current water demand of the ecological environment is 20.8 billion m3/year, and the outflow of international rivers is 25.92 billion m3/year. If we deduct the water that is difficult to be utilized and water for the ecological environment as well as the outflow of the current international rivers, the amount of surface water available for use by the national economy is about 40 billion m3/year. The amount of surface water available for use in the current situation is basically comparable to the surface water actually introduced into the irrigation area at present, and there is basically no open-source potential for surface water in Xinjiang.
(2) It is predicted that the amount of sewage discharged in 2010 will be 1,959.18 million cubic meters, and according to the Tenth Five-Year Plan of the Autonomous Region, industrial wastewater discharges will reach more than 75% by 2005. According to this projection, by 2010, sewage discharge treatment rate of 75%, sewage treatment reuse will reach 1,469.39 million cubic meters. Status quo annual sewage treatment back to use only 0.293 billion cubic meters, this move can be added to the water supply of 1.44 billion cubic meters.
(3) In 1999, the total water resources utilization of the whole territory was 48.59 billion cubic meters, of which 43.424 billion cubic meters of surface water was utilized, accounting for 89.37%; agricultural water consumption in the whole territory accounted for about 70% of the total water consumption, and the proportion of water consumption in the industry was seriously out of proportion, and the wastage was quite serious. For example, in some areas, agricultural water is used in the form of flood irrigation, and the average gross irrigation quota in the whole territory is generally over 1,000 cubic meters/mu, and in individual areas, it can be over 1,500 cubic meters/mu; the wastefulness of water used for industrial and domestic purposes should not be overlooked, and the average water consumption of industrial industries throughout the whole territory for a 10,000-million-yuan output value amounts to 435 cubic meters (the average for the southern territory is 448 cubic meters/million yuan, and the average for the northern territory is 423 cubic meters/million yuan), which is much higher than the national average level. , which is much higher than the national average. Therefore, the water supply potential of water resources can be greatly improved through water conservation measures and improving the utilization rate of water resources. If the irrigation quota can be reduced to 700 cubic meters/mu, calculated on the basis of the irrigated area of 416 hectares, water resources of 18 billion cubic meters can be saved annually. See Table 3-2-17 for details.
(2) Analysis of water supply potential of groundwater resources
1. Analysis of groundwater resources exploitation potential
The current situation is that in Xinjiang, the average degree of exploitation of groundwater is only 22%, and there is still a potential of 18.17739 billion cubic meters/year of groundwater resources that can be exploited; if we add the amount of spring diversion (1.7345 billion cubic meters/year), the degree of exploitation is 29%, and there is still a potential of 18.17739 billion cubic meters/year of groundwater that can be exploited. If we add the amount of spring diversion (1,734.5 million cubic meters/year), the exploitation degree is 29%, and there is still a potential of 16.6 billion cubic meters/year of exploitable groundwater resources.
The average degree of exploitation in the Tarim Basin is 19%, which is lower than the average level of the whole territory, and there is a potential of 11.7 billion cubic meters/year of exploitable groundwater resources. However, the exploitation degree of Hami and Turpan areas is over 110%, and there are three over-exploitation areas, the groundwater has no potential; other areas still have greater potential.
Jungar Basin average exploitation degree of 28%, higher than the average level of the whole territory, there are 6.6 billion cubic meters / year of groundwater extractable resources potential. Changji Prefecture and Urumqi City have no more potential; Shihezi City has serious over-exploitation, but there is still some potential from a large basin scale; other areas still have greater potential, but some counties and cities (e.g., Bole City) also have little potential.
2. Analysis of the degree of assurance of groundwater resources planning extraction
Planning for 2010, the total water supply of 85,534,030,000,000 cubic meters, the total demand for 58,999,995,000,000 cubic meters of water, the balance of supply and demand results in 26,534,080,000,000 cubic meters of surplus, in general, is guaranteed. However, it should be noted that Xinjiang is a vast area, the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources is extremely uneven, the real demand for water is mainly concentrated in the oasis zone with a very limited scope, coupled with the fragile ecological environment, ecological water demand is very large, so the overall situation is still manifested as a shortage of water resources, especially in the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountain economic zone is particularly prominent, Urumqi, Karamay, Shihezi, Changji Prefecture, has been manifested as a supply and demand serious imbalance.
Table 3-2-17 water supply and demand balance forecast analysis table Unit: billion cubic meters