Analysts believe that the pharmaceutical sector will be limited by external disturbances. If disturbance factors continue to escalate, related companies are expected to accelerate independent innovation in the field of high-end equipment and devices. Looking to the future, R&D innovation, consumption upgrade, and manufacturing upgrade will become long-term trends in the pharmaceutical industry.
Industrial structure adjustment and upgrading
my country's pharmaceutical industry is dominated by domestic supply. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the main operating revenue of pharmaceutical manufacturing in 2018 was nearly 2.4 trillion yuan, of which the export delivery value was only about 146 billion yuan. According to relevant data for 2018 released by the China Medical Insurance Chamber of Commerce, China's exports of pharmaceutical products are mainly raw materials (47%), hospital diagnostic and treatment equipment (16%), and health care and rehabilitation equipment (9%).
Regarding external disturbance factors, some professionals pointed out that China’s APIs have strong competitive advantages in the world, and APIs often belong to high-pollution, high-energy-consuming industries. In the previous process of global industrial chain transfer, Europe and the United States have already The API industry with relatively serious pollution has been transferred to developing countries, and its own production capacity is limited, leaving a gap in demand.
With the advancement of the reform of the medical insurance payment system and the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure, the sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical industry have become significantly differentiated. Data provided by Zhongtai Securities shows that in 2018, the revenue growth rate of listed pharmaceutical companies was 20.51%, total profits increased by 7.78%, and non-net profits increased by 8.33%; in the first quarter of 2019, the revenue growth rate of listed pharmaceutical companies was 0 +6.42%, total profit increased by 6.44%, and non-net profit increased by -3.73%. If excluding the raw material pharmaceutical sector, the pharmaceutical industry still maintained a profit growth of 2.89%.
Pay attention to high-prosperity subdivisions
Data released by CITIC Construction Investment (22.511.40%, diagnostic stocks) show that the current allocation of institutions to the pharmaceutical sector is at the historical average level. The overall pharmaceutical holding ratio of public funds in the first quarter was 11.09%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points from the previous quarter. After excluding pharmaceutical funds, the shareholding ratio was approximately 8.02%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points from the previous quarter. Funds The position ratio is the average level since 2015 years.
Against the background of constant external disturbances and macroeconomic fluctuations, the allocation value of the pharmaceutical sector is highlighted. He Juying, an analyst at CITIC Construction Investment, pointed out that we should continue to focus on advantageous subdivisions, and we can start with six clues: First, prescription drugs. It is recommended to pay attention to Hengrui Pharmaceutical (60.07+0.77%, diagnostic stock), a leading innovative drug, and the growth hormone field of policy immunity. The second is the core target of pharmaceutical outsourcing; the third is the core target of companion diagnostics; the fourth is a leading company in equipment, chain pharmacies and medical services; the fifth is a leading company in medical informatization; and the sixth is a company with great potential for mixed ownership reform.
Jiang Qi and Zhao Lei, analysts at Zhongtai Securities, believe that looking forward to the next three years, R&D innovation, consumption upgrade, and manufacturing upgrade will become long-term trends in the industry. In the field of R&D and innovation: innovative drugs are still the most certain trend. R&D innovation is the future of the pharmaceutical industry. It is recommended to lay out high-quality innovative drugs with rich product pipelines. At the same time, pharmaceutical service outsourcing is shifting to China. Domestic innovation demand has greatly increased. China Innovation Pharmaceutical service outsourcing is about to explode, and it is recommended to deploy leading companies with strong competitiveness; in terms of consumption upgrading, in the fields of medical services, vaccines, self-financed specialty drugs and branded traditional Chinese medicine, benefiting from the trend of consumption upgrading, high-quality leading companies are expected to maintain rapid growth; manufacturing upgrades On the other hand, the valuation of generic drug companies will be suppressed due to the impact of policies such as mass procurement; however, short-term performance will generally not be affected much, and after the industry reshuffle, new leaders with cost leadership strategies and high-barrier generic drugs will be born. There are opportunities for valuation restoration after the valuations of high-quality companies have fallen too much.