At present, the number of scrapped power batteries in China is on the eve of explosive growth. According to the calculation of TF Securities, from 202 1 to 2030, the scale of decommissioned power lithium batteries in China will increase from 33.95GWh to 380.3GWh, an increase of over 10 times.
If 20 14 years is called "the first year of new energy vehicles in China", then according to the general service life of 6-8 years, the first batch of power batteries "retirement tide" is coming. Is the power battery recycling industry chain really ready?
"We don't have a battery recycling business." When the Securities Times reporter came to a power battery recycling outlet in Shenzhen disclosed on the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the staff told the reporter so. This is not a case. More than half of the dozens of outlets visited by reporters said that "power batteries have never been recycled".
On the one hand, regular recycling outlets "don't accept batteries", on the other hand, a large number of battery recycling enterprises "don't accept batteries". Some experts told reporters that the proportion of scrapped power batteries flowing into the white list enterprises of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is less than 25%, and a large number of scrapped batteries actually flow into unqualified small workshops.
The embarrassment of recycling shops:
Not ready to accept retired batteries.
In order to understand the recycling situation of power batteries, the reporter came to Xinyi Automobile City, Longgang District, Shenzhen. According to the information disclosed on the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are five power battery recycling service outlets for new energy vehicles.
However, the reporter found that many power battery recycling outlets in the automobile city were "uninformed". For example, a staff member of the after-sales department of a 4S shop listed in the list of recycling outlets told the reporter: "We are a 4S shop, not a so-called garbage disposal plant, and we have no authority and qualification to deal with it."
The staff of another 4S shop also told reporters that the store "has never recycled the scrapped batteries of new energy vehicles".
The reporter visited and found that it is more common for power battery recycling outlets not to recycle scrapped batteries. Except for some outlets that don't know that they are included in the recycling list of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, most 4S stores sell new energy vehicles for a short time and have not encountered the scrapping of power batteries.
Mo Ke, chief analyst of Real Lithium Research, believes that the reason why "recycling outlets don't know" may be that the OEM didn't communicate well with 4S shops and repair shops when submitting the list of recycling outlets to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
According to the director of a 4S shop maintenance department with a "waste battery temporary storage area", the retired batteries of new energy vehicles are huge and need a separate storage area. The supervisor patted a table more than one meter long in the office and said to the reporter, "It's almost as big as this table."
The reporter observed the recycling outlets visited and found that most 4S shops and repair shops did not plan a large enough area to store scrapped power batteries. The above-mentioned supervisor also admitted to the reporter that at present, their store only recycles small batteries and has not recycled and stored power batteries.
According to the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are currently more than 1 10,000 power battery recycling service outlets in China, covering 3 1 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities.
According to the data of the National Development and Reform Commission, by the end of August 2022, the number of new energy vehicles in China had reached10.99 million. In other words, the proportion of existing power battery recycling outlets and new energy vehicles is very different, and many outlets do not have the experience and ability to deal with scrapped power batteries. In the face of the upcoming "retirement tide" of power batteries, it seems that it is somewhat unprepared.
The dilemma of the "regular army";
Equipment investment and high bid were lost to small workshops.
Corresponding to the "insufficient preparation" of regular battery recycling outlets, it is the "hunger" of small workshops for power battery recycling. Searching for "battery recycling for new energy vehicles" in Baidu, you can find a large number of battery recycling companies. Many companies told reporters on the phone that "high-priced recycling" and "door-to-door service can be provided".
However, according to the "white list" of three batches of power battery recycling disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (that is, the list of enterprises in the "Industry Standard Conditions for Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries in New Energy Vehicles"), 45 echelons and key recycling enterprises have been cultivated, and the above-mentioned enterprises claiming "high-priced recycling" are not among them.
Wei Fulei, deputy director of the Research Center for New Energy and Low Carbon Development of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, said in an interview that the power battery recycling industry lacks supervision, and bad money drives out good money.
"Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has identified white-listed enterprises and set up tens of thousands of formal recycling outlets, there are still tens of thousands of informal power battery recycling enterprises in the market, mainly small and medium-sized enterprises. Small workshops occupy the recycling market by recycling at low prices and high prices. According to estimates, the proportion of retired power batteries flowing into white list enterprises is less than 25%. " Wei said to him:
Why do small workshops need retired batteries? According to the current relevant regulations in China, when the capacity of power battery decays to about 70% of the rated capacity, it will be scrapped and forcibly recycled. In other words, retired batteries still have about 70% battery capacity, which can be used for cascade utilization in energy storage, power preparation and other fields. In addition, ternary lithium batteries and other expensive metals, such as nickel, cobalt and lithium, have the value of recycling.
Then, why is it that "regular troops can't beat small workshops"? Mock believes that the main reason is that the ownership of retired batteries is in the hands of car owners, and the sales of car owners follow the principle of "the highest price wins".
"For the owner, the battery must be disposed of after it is scrapped, and whoever bids high will give it to him. Enterprises with recycling qualifications can purchase relevant facilities according to government requirements to ensure safe and environmentally friendly recycling of batteries. However, small workshops do not have these inputs, and the money saved can be given to the owners, so the bid will be higher. " Mock said.
It is understood that formal enterprises need to make some initial investment in power battery recycling, in which equipment investment includes not only intelligent battery pack disassembly system and automatic battery cutting device, but also absorption tower, bag dust collector, tail gas incineration system and wastewater treatment facilities that meet environmental protection requirements. Cinda Securities Research Report shows that among all initial investments of regular battery recycling enterprises, equipment investment accounts for as high as 60%.
In the survey, reporters can also feel the price advantage of small workshops. A person from a 4S shop told the reporter: "It takes time and cost to dispose of used batteries. In theory, you have to pay us for storage and transportation. " However, the small workshop told reporters that they would quote according to the cruising range of retired batteries and other indicators, and the power batteries in good condition could be sold for several thousand yuan or even ten thousand yuan.
However, selling power batteries to small workshops may cause serious environmental pollution. Wei Fulei said that the power battery contains heavy metals such as manganese, cobalt and nickel, as well as refractory substances such as organic solvents and corrosive electrolytes. If it is not handled properly, it will cause serious harm to the ecological environment and human health.
In addition, there are security issues. The person in charge of the maintenance department of the aforementioned 4S shop said that it is very dangerous to remove the power battery. If the power battery is repaired in their shop, the staff should wear insulating gloves. "Pacemakers and insulating rods are placed next to them, which is really dangerous." The supervisor said.
Industry development status:
Capital is often arranged in groups.
Behind the irregular development of small workshops, the battery recycling industry has entered a melee situation, and a large number of new capital players have entered the game.
According to the survey data of Tianyan, there are more than 64,000 enterprises related to power battery recycling in China. Among them, in 20021year, the number of newly registered enterprises exceeded 24,000, a year-on-year increase of more than 6 times. As of September 27th, there were more than 29,000 new power battery recycling enterprises in China this year, and the number of new enterprises exceeded last year.
The reporter found that the participants in the current power battery recycling market can be divided into four categories: the first category is automobile manufacturers represented by BYD and Geely Automobile; The second category is battery and energy storage enterprises represented by Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and Du Nan Power Supply. The third category is battery material enterprises represented by Meg and Tianqi Lithium Industry. The fourth category is the third-party enterprises represented by Tianqi and Wang Neng Environment.
Among them, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. acquired concave-convex cycle as early as 20 15, and produced ternary cathode precursor by recycling metal elements from waste batteries. Its wholly-owned subsidiary Ningde Jiaocheng also includes a battery recycling system. BYD has set up more than 40 power battery recycling outlets around the world. Weilai joined forces with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., Guotai Junan and other enterprises to invest in battery asset company Weineng, with the goal of not only recycling, but managing the whole life cycle of batteries.
The reporter used the keyword "battery recycling" to search for announcements related to mergers and acquisitions of A-share listed companies and found that since the beginning of this year, a total of 33 subsidiaries have issued relevant announcements; 202 1, only 27 times.
Why do a large number of enterprises enter and cross the track? Wei Fulei believes that overall, the power battery recycling industry faces three very good opportunities.
First, the scale of retired power batteries was initially formed. The cumulative decommissioning amount of power batteries for new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 200,000 tons, and it is expected to reach 780,000 tons by 2025. The initial scale of scrapped power batteries provides a foundation for the development of recycling industry.
Second, the sales of new energy vehicles increased rapidly. After 20 15, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China maintained rapid growth, and the market penetration rate continued to increase. From June to August 2022, the production and sales reached 3.97 million and 3.86 million respectively, and the market penetration rate reached 22.9%. With the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, the installed capacity of power batteries continues to rise, and the demand for battery recycling and disposal will continue to increase in the future.
In addition, the price increase of raw materials upstream of lithium batteries also brings opportunities to the development of battery recycling industry. Wei Fulei said that the production of power batteries requires high-value metals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel. Since 202 1, the price of upstream raw materials has risen sharply. This year, the price of lithium carbonate once soared to 5 10.5 million yuan/ton, and the increase was over10 times in more than a year. The price increase of raw materials provides opportunities for the battery recycling industry.
Challenges in the eyes of enterprises:
Power battery recycling is still not standardized.
If opportunities and challenges coexist, what challenges does the industry face in the eyes of battery recycling practitioners?
Hengchuang Ruineng is a fully licensed enterprise in Shenzhen lithium battery recycling industry. On September 19, it was announced that it had completed the B+ round of over 100 million financing, which was led by Yinshan Capital, a subsidiary of ProLogis. It is understood that Yinshan Capital focuses on investing in enterprises that achieve cost reduction, efficiency improvement, energy conservation and emission reduction through technological innovation and model innovation, which is related to Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., a leading power battery.
Julian Chen, chairman and founder of Hengchuang Ruineng, said in an interview that despite the huge market potential, active government guidance and multi-angle layout of enterprises, there are still many problems in the power battery recycling industry in China.
"On the one hand, there are many participants in the battery recycling industry, not only regular troops but also informal enterprises. Small workshops carry out power battery recycling business, which not only disturbs the market order and squeezes the space of regular recycling enterprises, but also brings environmental pollution and security risks. On the other hand, power battery recycling enterprises have the phenomenon of increasing prices to grab goods and dumping goods. " Julian Chen said.
In Julian Chen's eyes, there are some problems in the current recycling system, such as the market mechanism needs to be improved, the standardization of outlets needs to be improved, the allocation of resources needs to be optimized, and the construction cost is too high. The materials, formulas, specifications and structures of power batteries from different manufacturers are also different, which leads to more battery models and scattered output, which brings difficulties to cascade utilization. "The fluctuation of battery materials, especially metal materials, will ultimately determine the profit and loss of the power battery recycling market, which is also a great challenge." Julian Chen said.
A senior engineer of a new energy materials company in A-share believes that the recent attention to battery recycling is too high, and the entry threshold for recycling enterprises is low. Many enterprises and capital poured in, but the investment and accumulation were limited, and the level of enterprises was uneven, which led to intensified recycling competition in the primary stage.
"The overall technical level of the industry is low. Compared with the high-level manufacturing of the front end, the disassembly and cascade utilization of the back end are still in the development and trial stage, which has not reached a good application state and does not match the level of the front end of the industrial chain. Efforts should be made to strengthen innovation in technology and equipment. Some enterprises have poor safety and environmental protection control, which may easily lead to quality and safety accidents. It is necessary to improve the comprehensive safety management and monitoring level of battery storage, production, testing and use. In the recycling of battery resources, the effective disposal of harmful environmental substances such as electrolyte is not enough, and there are hidden dangers of environmental pollution. " The above engineer said.
Zhang Yuping, deputy general manager of Meg, said in an interview with the Securities Times that the recycling of power batteries is now the focus of global attention, which is not only the end of the sustainable development of new energy industry, but also the key to the green and sustainable supply of strategic resources such as nickel, cobalt and lithium, and it is also a strategic measure to cope with climate change and promote green development.
"To promote the high-quality development of recycling, we must unite upstream and downstream enterprises to carry out research and development and promote industrial synergy." Zhang Yuping suggested that car companies, battery manufacturers and standard recycling companies should be encouraged to develop technologies such as easy-to-use battery structure step by step, and recycling companies should be encouraged to cooperate with battery companies in business models such as "exchanging waste for raw materials".
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