A share for many years there has been a phenomenon, by which is the bear market stage to embrace the warmth of a number of institutions and funds to obtain profits in a way to food, pharmaceuticals as the first consumer concept stocks into a magic for many years, regardless of whether in the bulls and bears in the market, the institutions and funds are able to come out on top, and make a substantial investment returns, even at the beginning of the stock market in the process of bottoming out, they also earned a pot full of money They made a lot of money even when the stock market was bottoming out at the beginning of the year. Especially now at this time, they are simply crazy, their fierce attack once again stunned the stock market.
The high valued stocks will eventually return to their value. Remember that the big tree will never rush to the sky, even if it is the assets of the organization hugging the group, but also can not escape the objective laws and reality. The group warming will eventually return to reality, the 1970s, the United States also appeared in the consumer concept speculation market. U.S. stock valuation has also reached a peak, Coca-Cola PE 46 times, McDonald's 71 times, Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceuticals 57 times, just hype, after the peak, these stocks began a long 10-year valuation of the process of return, 2015 GEM has also been fired up to the sky, the valuation of the year's price dream ratio so that many shareholders were injured, and now some have been delisted, and some are lying on the ground. Many stocks back down has been more than 60%.
Now a lot of high valuation hugging stocks, PE has exceeded 2015, the so-called core assets in recent years, the share price of the so-called core assets rose amazingly, Maotai, Haitian, Pientzehuang counted from 2017, has risen 460%, 636%, 447%. Although the performance of these companies is still good, Maotai 49 times P/E, Haitian 85 times P/E, Pientzehuang 86 times P/E. But the high price-earnings ratio of these companies is difficult to support the high speed of stock prices, last week, these stocks after soaring to new highs in stock prices, and then appeared to be adjusted, in the process of Friday's stock market adjustment, white wine, soy sauce and medical care and other sectors by the funds abandoned. These plates collectively weakened.
In fact, the rise of these stocks, not that these stocks have a very high investment value, are domestic and foreign institutions continue to increase the position of the group's results, according to the number of dramas show that many public funds hold food and beverage sectors have been over-allocated more than a few times. Now many analysts believe that the market, the main board to pull up food and beverage, pharmaceutical and biological, in fact, many institutions have been reduced, so similar to the Pientzehuang, Haitian Taste and other high stock prices appeared in a collective dive. So from the valuation level, stock price positioning and profitability level to analyze the words, these stocks will not be too good subsequent performance. Now food and medicine two sectors have reached the ceiling.
The consumer sector is full of bullish stocks, is an indisputable fact. Data treasure statistics show that since 2000, food and beverage up 2,343%, medicine and biology class 1,142%, the two industry indexes leading the A-share market, is the only two market history of more than 10 times the industry. 20 years Guizhou Maotai rose 368 times, Hengrui medicine cumulative rise of 179 times, ranked the A-share first, second. There is no only up and down plate, I think the food and medicine plate, the short-term rapid cooling has reached the ceiling, the short-term has been overvalued, holding the chips have begun to loosen, for these stocks, we can only look at them as much as they want to perform, try not to get involved in, or in other words, drinking, eating medicine, soy sauce you can do, but these stocks are not the ones you should buy now.
Finally, a friendly reminder of the "stock market risk, investment to learn"
I'm glad to answer
1, first of all, the question is clear that any one plate up more than risk, including white wine, food, pharmaceuticals, securities and technology and so on plate, this is an undeniable fact, the risk is long out of it, and besides, the whole of August! White wine and food stocks have been rising, with the valuation of these two sectors to improve, so the need for a decent adjustment.
2, at this stage the subject if you want to continue to intervene in liquor or food or pharmaceutical stocks is to consider short-term speculation or long-term investment, if you consider short-term speculation, you can wait for support to intervene in the short-term game for gains, long-term investment, the author of the author here suggests that we still wait for a little bit of the overall plate adjustments to place in place in order to intervene, after all, white wine and food plate has just begun to adjust, and so on adjustments to the full and then to intervene a little bit not too late. After the full to intervene a little late.
3, pharmaceutical stocks recently differentiated more serious, leading pharmaceutical stocks resistance is very strong, but here there is also the risk of overall adjustment, or that drinking and eating medicine market is also a cycle, and at this stage we can not continue to drink and eat medicine, we want to develop scientific and technological innovation, to be a domestic alternative to the independent and controllable, and national policy has been supporting the development of science and technology.
4, on the current stage of the subject if you want to intervene in liquor, food or pharmaceuticals, the author here more advice on the subject of the batch of low suction position, gradually the position slowly increase, and so on these plates thoroughly adjusted after the subject of the full position is completed, ready to wait with the main **** with the enjoyment of earnings feast better.
Previously too high white wine, soy sauce, pharmaceutical stocks worth intervening, benevolent and wise, my personal opinion is not too recognized.
Pharmaceutical stocks, including pharmaceuticals, medical devices, bio-vaccines, genetic testing and other subsectors, many companies have significant adjustments in the stock price, adjusting the space in the 20-30% of the number of, but it is adjusted by 30% or so, the rate of increase is still huge, the valuation is still not low, the institution is still profitable, if the retailer continues to grab the rebound, it is a chance to give the institution an opportunity to leave the field on a high level.
Soy sauce seasonings and other food industries, stock price adjustment has just begun, that is, two trading days, whether it is adjusting the time, adjusting the space is still not enough, the market is still adjusting the space, but based on the institutional holding, the way to adjust is difficult to judge, continuous adjustment of the stock price continuously falling on the fund net value is too great to meet the principle of maximizing the interests of the institution, so there will be a rebound of the short-term Probability, but after the rebound there is still room for adjustment, more unsuitable for rash bottoming, to prevent the institutions to use the T + 1 trading system, to chase high investors in the trap.
White wine plate is still maintaining strong, there is no obvious adjustment, liquor plate valuation is located in the history of the high, the market has to adjust the space, but is the organization holding shares, it is difficult to accurately determine the timing of the adjustment, like soy sauce seasoning, Haitian Taste is in the stock price of a record high under the sudden start of the adjustment, give investors a surprise, heavy losses.
White wine, soy sauce, pharmaceutical stocks are institutional holdings, institutional holdings are very easy to pull up the stock price, do not need much volume, but the biggest problem is the holdings of the sell channel will also be crowded, the new institutions will not enter the field of the high level to take over, will only attract a small number of retailers to follow the hype, as long as the institutional holdings of the sellers, institutional holdings of the holdings of loosening, will cause the stock price to plummet, with the adjustment of the stock price, the market heat As the stock price adjusts, the market heats up, and as it declines, institutions cash in on the increasing profits, and the stock price adjustment time will be extended.
Previously large gains in white wine, soy sauce, pharmaceutical stocks, is it still worthwhile to intervene? This is something that needs to be viewed from a different time. Many retailer friends, when doing investment, ignored the "time line", such as obviously a short-term ticket, but made a long ticket; obviously a long ticket, but made a short ticket. The time does not correspond to the natural loss of more profit less. Now, looking at these three plates, it is also necessary to distinguish between the time to see as well as distinguish between the situation.
1, from the short-term point of view, I do not think that these three plates are a good choice! Baijiu stocks, although under the influence of the new crown epidemic, it is true that the impact, after all, everyone's dinner less, drinking wine naturally less. However, many liquor companies use "control goods quite price" way to resolve the industry crisis, and most companies half-yearly financial results are quite good. However, if you look at the valuation, the vast majority of them are not cheap, in the valuation of recent years at the high level, which is the need to remain cautious.
Soy sauce stocks, the A-share market involves a relatively small number of constituents, large and small involved in about 10 companies. The number is small, does not mean that all the quality is good, some good quality soy sauce stocks, now the valuation is not cheap, the short and medium term is also need to remain cautious.
As for pharmaceutical stocks, this direction of the breakdown is too much too much, there are generic drugs, innovative drugs, vaccines, plasma, anti-cancer, etc., hundreds of companies are not uniform. Can only say that the plate is really worth our attention is the quality of those companies, and high valuation of high-quality companies, short and medium-term is the need for caution, and some of the market "wrongly killed" quality companies, short and medium-term individuals believe that it is worth paying attention to up.
2, the long term, liquor, soy sauce, pharmaceutical plate direction of the quality of the stock, it is worthwhile to keep our attention for a long time. Although the valuation of the short and medium term is high, but corresponds to the long term, as long as the performance can be maintained, can always have growth, these three directions of the quality of the company, it is worthwhile to keep our attention.
Stock investment is like this, up more than down, down more than up. But regardless of the rise and fall, often deviate from the market valuation system and valuation wind direction.
What does it mean? For example, white wine, soy sauce, pharmaceuticals and other consumer stocks, the beginning of 2017, one because these stocks do perform well, and their performance is basically unaffected by the economic cycle, coupled with the fact that at that time, institutional investors were more subject to substantial support in terms of policy, that is, the management is opposed to speculating on small fry new fry high transfer, so the white horse leading stocks began to get up, and gradually formed the situation of institutional investment embracing the group, in the In this case, the valuation of white horse stocks is getting higher and higher, and even engaged in part of the white horse stocks can not be considered white horse, such as Maotai's P/E ratio has reached more than 40 times, Haitian Taste's P/E ratio has reached more than 90 times, but the location of such a high, not many people are willing to take over the plate, so the shipment is also more and more difficult for the agency to ride the tiger and difficult to get down, can only be hard to continue to hold.
Then from the technical point of view, only to create an excuse to let these shares first fall some, so that the market will be a feeling or a false impression of retail investors, that is, these stocks fell a lot, you can plunge to the bottom, not knowing, a new round of decline began ....... This is repeated over and over again, and the main force is perfect for transferring chips to the hands of ordinary investors. So, a lot of the main shipments will be in the process of pulling up most of the chips handed out, so relatively easy much. But down the process of shipping, want to ensure that the profit, the front pull up the process to be as high as possible.
Back to the beginning, up more than down, down more than up, but everyone has their own investment system, if the location of the fall did not fall to your expectations, the value of the stock is not in line with your judgment system, then do not touch, no matter how much they fell.
Therefore, in my opinion, these stocks are not suitable to get involved for the time being.
The answer is yes, the previous rise is too high liquor, soy sauce and pharmaceuticals sector is not suitable for intervention at present.
The reason is that the current valuation of these plates show a bubble trend, at the same time, the transformation and upgrading of our entire economy, relying on white wine, soy sauce and pharmaceutical plates is not very realistic.
Valuation point of view, the CSI liquor index current PE is 48.27 times, PE percentile 99.51%.
The representative stocks in soy sauce are Haitian Taste and Qianhe Taste. You Haitian Taste Industry, for example, the current E is 94.51 times, PE percentile 99.19%.
Pharmaceuticals Let's take the CSI 500 Pharmaceuticals Index as an example, the current PE is 46.94 times, PE percentile 86.51%.
Obviously, the valuation of these sectors has been bubbled, this industry can not have such a high growth rate.On the other hand, let's understand from the perspective of common sense.
The only driving force behind the development of human society is scientific and technological innovation, which in turn improves the productivity of society as a whole. In other words, the transformation and upgrading of the economy must be a major breakthrough in science and technology.
This is like the invention of the steam engine in the first industrial revolution, the rise of the British Empire, and the information technology revolution and Internet technology that began in the 1970s.
The most realistic situation is that our chips and semiconductors are still being strangled, and this embarrassing situation is obviously not something that can be solved by taking drugs and drinking alcohol.
This weekend, SMIC was also included in the list of entities, this aspect we do not expand in detail, you know.
From the market's recent performance, the sauce is down for three consecutive days, liquor differentiation, medicine is still in the downward channel.
So, the current is not suitable to intervene in the white wine, soy sauce and medicine plate!
White wine, soy sauce and pharmaceutical stocks from the beginning of last year to start rising, only in the Spring Festival after a small retracement, up to now leading basically have hit a new high in history, and valuation has been very high, and now retracement of a few days, but is still not low, and white wine and even did not retrace how much, so you want to buy can also wait again.
These plates are good plates, leading companies are worth buying, the only thing to do to analyze and choose is the price, and then the good company, the stock price is too high when it is not a good time to buy.
We'll simply look at the dynamic P/E ratio of the three plate leaders: Maotai in about 50, Haitian flavor in the plunge a few days after the P/E ratio is still close to 90, Hengrui medicine 86, so why can the soy sauce fall so sharply in the past few days, because it's really too high.
Of course, the growth rate of soy sauce is higher than white wine, pharmaceuticals, the future of new drug development success of the imagination can have a lot of these two industries P/E ratio than white wine is also normal, but not so high as two times.
But now at this stage, is the whole are too expensive.
In short, these are very good industries, are worth long-term attention, as long as the price fell to a reasonable range, it is still worth getting. As for what price is reasonable, it depends on each person's judgment of the stock.
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Previously rose too high white wine, soy sauce, pharmaceutical stocks now still worth our intervention?Hello everyone! I am a quantitative Cheng brother, focusing on the stock market quantitative analysis of 16 years, in-depth study of the logic behind the trend change!
In fact, this question does not need to be answered directly, before a friend asked a similar question, asked so-and-so soy sauce can still enter? I told him that now so-and-so soy sauce P/E ratio went to how much? He said in more than 80 times, I said, I asked him, if you let you choose in the same 80 times the price-earnings ratio of the case, there is a semiconductor company this year's growth rate is not bad and a soy sauce company, you will choose to invest in who he actually answered without thinking, that is certainly investment in semiconductors ah, this is the country to guide the direction of investment, ah, that the answer is not already out of it! He smiled and did not say anything.
What kind of investment logic do you have?
Why is the valuation of a soy sauce company able to go to nearly 100 times?
In fact, sometimes the investment logic is relatively simple, but many stockholders he does not understand, is the lack of independent thinking, they lack forward-looking thinking, mainly because they are stuck in the myth that people created inside can not extricate themselves.
Now rumors on the Internet, our technology companies are worthless, a soy sauce top dozens of companies in a certain industry, this is really outrageous. Soy sauce is frankly belongs to the food industry, the traditional industry is generally valued at 20 to 30 PE, but now actually went to more than 80 times, the highest time close to a hundred times, higher than the valuation of science and technology stocks, I do not know which high people are willing to give such a high valuation, the future once the myth is broken, the set of people estimated to be simmering for not a short period of time, this is perhaps not independent thinking caused by the trouble.
What is the future investment logic?If the white wine and soy sauce is more successful in the past investment can only show that investors in the past encountered too many pits, they only want to clearly cast the usual visible enough to be safe, but this logic can only represent the success of the past, does not mean that the future must still be successful. The only way to do this is to use the technology to represent the future!
What is the most urgent thing for the country to do now? The KIC was established, the GEM registration system, these are all for science and technology and to do the real thing.
Future investments must be in these core assets.
And then again, pharmaceutical stocks in fact, the future can also be optimistic, but if the valuation is too high is not quite suitable, we said that the stock price can not always rise, it is not possible to go up to the sky. If it is too high, then focus on it.
I don't know if you agree? If you have a different view welcome to leave a comment to correct.
Concerned about the quantitative Cheng said investment, analysis of current events Finance, focusing on the stock market quantitative strategy mining, investor education.
Previously too high white wine, soy sauce , medicine stocks now also worth our intervention? This question is very interesting, these stocks are leaders in the early stage, but recently have been in the adjustment, this time we not only have to ask: adjustment in place? The time to get in is now? The performance of these stocks is relatively solid, the economic cycle on its impact is relatively small , cash flow health, profit and revenue growth is stable, so it is always easy to be institutional group, since last year, the fund-raising is easy, and the fund's standard is the configuration of these stocks, these stocks are very popular with the institutions, but also become the place where the institution piled up the proportion of holdings Particularly high, even as high as sixty percent or more, Maotai this stock institutional shareholding ratio is as high as 80%, the number of institutions is as high as 1,830, can be called A shares in the largest number of institutional stocks. But these stocks are currently in a state of adjustment, liquor plate is currently in the vicinity of the 30-day average, today stepped on the 30-day average, but did not break. 60-day average is a key line, Maotai is currently sideways 2 months, if it fell below the 60-day average to form a M-head is not very good to see. As for the soy sauce king Haitian taste industry, also commonly known as "soy sauce", is also in the retracement, in today's before the big fall for 3 consecutive days, the cumulative loss of as much as 20%, today, although the big rise of 4%, but the graphic is also not so good to see. Hengrui Medicine, Myriad Medical, represented by the pharmaceutical stocks in July mid-adjustment, is still sideways state, both in the 60-day average edge, which the number of institutions from the second quarter began to increase dramatically, and these boards are almost all the same, which is also the reason that the first quarter of the epidemic due to a lot of institutional holdings reduction After the second quarter, the epidemic was under control, the economy is rebounding, and the liquidity of the funds is still relatively large, so the institutions came back in, the stock market rose. They're all piling into these businesses. Now the position is more delicate, because these as a pre stock market rising leader of the plate current valuation is not low, Maotai are 50 times the price-earnings ratio, if it really rose to 70 times the price-earnings ratio, so Maotai you still dare to "drink"? But if you reduce these stocks, what other stocks can replace them? Many people expect to rise to 4000 points, but to accomplish such a goal, who can carry the banner? Is the original leader continue to rise? Or plate rotation to other plates? The original leader has been valued so high, and then high then really can support? And if it is rotating to other sectors, that sector can still hold up? The traditional real estate, non-ferrous and other cold plate? The author is not sure, now is a position of dilemma, left and right is not, wait and see what happens. No increase, no decrease, no dirt, if you have to choose a direction, or reduce a little. I'm also curious which direction it will go. Yuk Mei Mei answer: affected by the epidemic, high certainty of the industry more favored by investors, on the current economic downturn in the environment, high certainty of the industry to attract more popularity than the high growth industry. High certainty of consumer stocks has become the market now embraced the direction of consumer stocks, although the overall growth is not particularly high, but strong certainty. For certainty to pay more premium consumer stocks is the market's current direction of heat. From the valuation point of view, the food and beverage sector has reached a new high in history, although this does not mean that the immediate fall, but means that the potential upside is not big. In the past two years, the main consumer and large technology are favored, recent technology has been sluggish, but the consumer has always led the herd, the reason is because technology by the U.S. suppression of the impact of the deeper, the entire industry is linked together, pulling a hair move the whole body, but the consumer is, after all, the domestic demand, relatively speaking, more stable. If there is a company that can meet the needs of thousands of people, such a company can create value, worth a lot of money. Such a company's stock price continues to reach new heights, we are convinced, white wine soy sauce want to get involved, obviously now is not a good opportunity, if itself is a long-term holders of the players can continue to take, broken out can, if you want to build a position now, it is recommended to wait for a deeper tone and then make a decision not too late. The future of semiconductor stocks may have the market, semiconductor stocks is the valuation is too expensive, but the entire semiconductor industry is not just a concept of speculation, there is also a solid performance support. We can continue to focus on semiconductor stocks. Sharing brightens life, welcome to add attention, thanks to the message exchange!